The Iron Chancellor? Can Rachel Reeves Ride Out The Storm As Budget Criticism Grows?

According to friends, Rachel Reeves is maintaining her sense of humour as she endures growing criticism of the decisions she has taken since becoming chancellor in July. She is certainly going to need it in the years ahead.

In barely four months, Reeves has managed to anger millions of pensioners, Britain’s farmers and some of the country’s biggest employers as she seeks to repair the public finances.

It seems that voters have noticed. Polling by Savanta seen by HuffPost UK found that the chancellor’s approval ratings have plummeted since the election, while Labour’s lead over the Tories on who is most trusted to run the economy has fallen dramatically.

However, Reeves seems determined not to row back on any of the controversial decisions she has taken in the past four months.

She had hardly got her feet under her desk at the Treasury before she announced that the winter fuel payment, previously a universal benefit for every OAP in the country, would instead be means tested.

At a stroke, 10 million pensioners were told they would no longer receive it – a move which the Department for Work and Pensions admitted this week will push 100,000 of them into relative poverty.

Reeves justified the decision by saying Labour had to make a start on filling a £22 billion black hole left by the last Tory government, but that did not shield her from the political backlash which followed.

Undeterred, she doubled down in the Budget last month, closing a loophole which saw farmers exempted from inheritance tax, while hiking the employers’ rate of National Insurance.

The unpopularity of those decisions was shown in the past week, with thousands of farmers protesting on Whitehall, while some of the UK’s biggest companies putting their names to a letter warning that the NI changes will cost jobs and push up prices.

But despite the criticism, there is no indication from the top of government that any U-turns are on the cards.

A Labour source: “Rachel promised at the election she would be an iron chancellor that would put the economy back on track – and that’s exactly what she is doing.

“We have always said that there would be tough decisions to clean up the mess we inherited, including the £22 billion black hole in the nation’s finances. If we duck those tough decisions we will be doing precisely what the Conservatives did: party first, country second.

“But Rachel is equally clear about the prize on offer: a Britain that is better off. That’s why the Budget was all about delivering for working people: fixing the NHS, rebuilding Britain and protecting people’s payslips from higher taxes.”

Farmers protest during a demonstration against inheritance tax changes on Tuesday.
Farmers protest during a demonstration against inheritance tax changes on Tuesday.

Bloomberg via Bloomberg via Getty Images

Another senior insider told HuffPost UK: “Rachel is patient, shrewd and has confidence in herself and the people around her.

“People shouldn’t mistake her calmness and that rational approach for a lack of ambition for the government and the country, or an unwillingness to be bold.

“She had a shaky start with the winter fuel payment announcement but she’s learned from it that presentation and follow-up is key, which is why the Budget was so well-managed at every stage.

“Undoubtedly there will be choppy waters ahead, but I couldn’t think of anyone better to be at the helm to steer the government and the country through.”

Nevertheless, there are some in government who despair at Reeves’ determination not to plot a difference course, regardless of the political headwinds she is facing.

They point out that previous chancellor, such as Gordon Brown, Nigel Lawson and Philip Hammond, all showed a willingness to change their minds when the situation demanded it.

Reeves’ decision to put Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, in charge of the “phase one” spending review outlining departmental budgets for the next 12 months, has also drawn criticism.

HuffPost UK has been told that Jones’ “high-handed” manner in one-to-one meetings when outlining where the axe would need to fall angered virtually all of his cabinet colleagues.

“You will not find a single minister, with the possible exception of Wes [Streeting], who has a good word to say about him,” said one senior figure.

It is essential, government sources say, that Reeves herself is at the helm of the three-year spending review which is still to come, rather than her deputy.

Some in cabinet are also worried at the apparent lack of an overarching strategy for achieving the economic growth which is meant to be the government’s number one mission.

At a recent cabinet meeting where it was discussed, there was surprise that science innovation and technology secretary Peter Kyle, and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, were given star billing.

“It seemed very thin,” said one minister. “There wasn’t a lot that seemed different from what the Tories have been doing for the last 10 years.”

Support for Reeves in government remains strong, however, and there is no doubt that she has the full confidence of her next door neighbour, the prime minister.

One ally said making so many unpopular decisions in her first few months in government was smart politically and economically.

This is year one and people need to be reminded of that,” he said. “This is the first year of what will be a long parliament and it will undoubtedly be the most difficult year.

“They’re having to make difficult decisions and they’re determined that that is the right thing to do for the economy, but also politically it is the right strategy because you’ve got to do the difficult stuff now, right at the beginning, if you want to see an economic and political recovery in four years’ time.”

Former Labour MP Michael Dugher, one of Reeves’ closest friends in politics, said: “She gets called the iron chancellor because she is seen as someone who is very tough and firm to deal with, and determined to get the public finances back in shape and create economic stability.

“But what she really needs is an iron skin because she is very much on the front line of the receiving end of a lot of the attacks on the government – whether it’s from Conservatives who still haven’t got over losing the election, or from the Left, who think Labour leaders as there to betray them.”

It is undoubtedly the case, however, that many more unpopular decisions will need to be taken by Reeves between now and the next election in four years’ time.

Having already burned through so much political capital, the pressure on her to bend will only increase if growth remains anaemic and the opinion polls do not improve.

How she responds will determine whether the iron chancellor tag is a deserved one or not.

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Exclusive: Voters’ Trust In Labour To Run The Economy Plummets Amid Budget Backlash

Labour’s lead over the Tories on which party is best placed to run the economy has plummeted since the election, HuffPost UK can reveal.

Polling by Savanta shows that just 38% of the public now back Labour over the Conservatives, down from 50% in July.

At the same time, the proportion of the public who prefer the Tories has gone up from 28% to 33%.

That means Labour’s lead has fallen from 22 points to five points in just four months.

The poll also found that Labour’s lead over the Tories on dealing with the cost of living has gone from 28 points to nine points over the same period, while the party’s lead on taxation has fallen from 16 points to just two points.

The findings are another blow for chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has come under fire over a series of controversial decisions she has taken since the election.

They include taking the winter fuel payment off 10 million pensioners, imposing inheritance tax on farms worth more than £1 million and hiking the rate of National Insurance paid by employers.

Reeves’ own personal approval ratings have also fallen from plus seven at the end of July to minus 18, the Savanta poll found.

Chris Hopkins, the pollsters’ political research director, said Labour’s advantage on the economy had “all but faded away since the election”.

“The Conservatives haven’t made up that much ground on the economy, taxation and cost of living, but many voters no longer think that Labour are the most trusted on these issues,” he said.

“Reeves would no doubt argue that she is being forced to take difficult decisions because of the inheritance left to her by her Conservative predecessors. While the public do have sympathy for that point of view, I think it’s fair to say they were expecting more from Labour.”

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‘Why Would Anyone Believe A Word You Say?’ Sky News Presenter Roasts Chancellor Over Tax Rises

Rachel Reeves has been skewered by a Sky News presenter for massively hiking taxes just months after saying she had “no plans” to do so.

Trevor Phillips asked the chancellor why “a reasonable person would believe a single word you say” in future.

Reeves was shown a video of her from June 11, three weeks before the general election, where she said: “I don’t need to become chancellor to know what a mess the government have made of public finances, of public services and the fact that the tax burden is at its highest level in 70 years.

“We don’t need higher taxes, what we need is growth and I don’t want to, and I have no plan to increase any taxes beyond what we have already set out.”

But last Wednesday, she announced £40 billion worth of tax rises, partly to fill the £22bn “black hole” Labour says it was left by the last Tory government.

Phillips told her: “You specifically said you already knew everything you needed to know, yet on Wednesday you raised taxes by £40 billion.

“Why would a reasonable person believe a single word that you say in the next 15 minutes and that you’ll stick to it?”

Reeves replied: “I was wrong on June 11. I didn’t know everything, because when I arrived at the Treasury on July 5, I was taken into a room by the senior officials and they set out the huge black hole in the public finances, beyond which anybody knew about at the time of the general election.

“The previous government hid it from the country, hid it from parliament and indeed they hid it from the official independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility.

“And so when I went into that Budget last week I had to put our public finances back onto a firm trajectory because we saw in the previous parliament what happens when government loses control of the public finances, and the first commitment we made in our manifesto was to bring stability back to the economy.”

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Elon Musk Has Reignited His Feud With Keir Starmer And This Time It’s Over The Budget

Elon Musk has reignited his feud with Keir Starmer by becoming an unlikely champion of Britain’s farmers.

The X owner has taken issue with changes to inheritance tax rules set out in the Budget last Wednesday by Rachel Reeves.

Under the new measures, farms worth more than £1 million will become liable for the tax for the first time when their owner dies.

Responding to a post on X criticising the new policy, Musk wrote: “We should leave the farmers alone. We farmers immense gratitude for making the food on our tables!”

In the summer, the prime minister slapped down the billionaire tech boss for claiming “civil war is inevitable” in the UK in the wake of the far-right riots which have taken place across the country in the past week.

The PM’s official spokesman said: “There’s no justification for comments like that and what we’ve seen in this country is organised illegal thuggery which has no place on our streets or online.”

But responding to a video posted on X by Starmer in which he said the government “will not tolerate attacks on mosques or on Muslim communities”, Musk replied: “Shouldn’t you be concerned about attacks on all communities?”

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How Worried Should We Be About The Way The Markets Are Reacting To The Budget?

The cost of government borrowing has gone up and the value of the pound has fallen as the money markets react to the Budget delivered by Rachel Reeves on Wednesday.

That has sparked some fears that the UK is heading for a Liz Truss-style economic meltdown triggered by the chancellor’s decision to massively increase taxes and government borrowing.

On Thursday afternoon, bond yields – effectively the interest rate the government pays on its debt – hit 4.568%, the highest it has been since August last year.

That is significant because the more money the government has to pay servicing debt, the less there is available to spend on public services.

Sky News economics editor Ed Conway said voters should be “certainly a bit worried” by what is happening on the money markets.

Posting on X, he said: “There has been a marked rise in UK bond yields following the Budget which is greater than what we’re seeing in other markets.”

But he added: “Perhaps the most important thing to say is: this is NOTHING like the reaction we saw following the Truss mini Budget.

“Even so, there has definitely been SOME reaction. The pound weakened a bit and gilt yields rose. This despite the fact that most of this Budget was pre-briefed long in advance. Investors are actively re-pricing UK debt. And that matters.

“The issue at present isn’t the one Liz Truss had to grapple with – a near financial crisis – but something else. The cost of debt servicing is going up. And if debt interest costs goes up it has a direct bearing on the government’s fiscal plans.”

At the same time, the value of the pound against the dollar has also fallen – further evoking memories of the financial crisis which followed Truss’ disastrous mini-Budget two years ago.

Kathleen Brooks, an analyst at trading firm XTB, said the the Budget “has not been well received” by the markets.

Kyle Chapman, an analyst at trading firm Ballinger Group, said the fall in the pound and rise in gilt yields indicated that the market had decided Labour had “overextended” with its borrowing and spending plans.

However, other analysts insisted the current situation was completely different to when Kwasi Kwarteng, Truss’ chancellor, announced £45bn of unfunded tax cuts.

“Investors feared a new Liz Truss moment, but in the end the announcements do not suggest an uncontrolled surge in debt,” Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management portfolio manager, Nabil Milali, said.

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Of course, markets are especially sensitive to the effect chancellors can have on interest rates ever since Kwasi Kwarteng took to the despatch box, and with the ten-year gilt yield now climbing to levels seen in the wake of mini-Budget, it’s fair to ask whether Rachel Reeves’ maiden Budget could cause similar problems.

“The answer is probably, and hopefully, not.”

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Budget Analysis: Voters Could End Up Paying The Price For Rachel Reeves’ Big Gamble

Rachel Reeves is not, by nature, much of a gambler.

She has managed to become the UK’s first ever female chancellor through a combination of political ability, sound economic judgement and caution.

But in the Budget, she decided to bet everything on the government being able to grow the economy – and the “working people” Labour have sought to protect could end up paying the price.

Reeves stunned the Commons by announcing that she was hiking taxes by £40 billion – an astronomical sum even bigger than what had been predicted and which will take the tax burden to the highest level on record.

Capital gains tax, inheritance tax and – most significantly – employers’ National Insurance are all going up as the chancellor seeks to clear up the financial mess she says the last Tory government left behind.

Tens of billions of pounds will also be borrowed as the government turns on the spending taps.

Much of the cash will be spent on improving the NHS and schools, moves which are likely to be popular with most voters.

But look at the small print and it’s clear to see why economic experts – and plenty of Labour MPs – are nervous.

Economic growth – the government’s number one mission, don’t forget – over the next five years is set to be lower than previously forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Inflation and interest rates are also set to rise, according to the OBR, further damaging household incomes.

Treasury sources acknowledge this is a sub-optimal situation, but are pleading for patience from voters.

One said: “Do we want those growth forecasts to be higher? Yes. But we’re not going to be able to turn around 14 years in one Budget. This is our first Budget in our first term.

“What the chancellor has set out is an honest Budget in response to the scale of the challenge we face.

“We’ve had to take difficult decisions on tax in order to bring back stability to the economy.

“We’re not immune to the consequences of our decisions, but the consequences of not acting would have been to lose control of economic stability.”

But there was an ominous warning from the highly-respected Institute for Fiscal Studies, whose director Paul Johnson said: “Somebody will pay for the higher taxes – largely working people.”

With the Labour government’s popularity already cratering barely three months after the election, a major financial hit to those who helped put them in office is the last thing Reeves and Keir Starmer need.

The chancellor desperately needs her big Budget gamble to pay off.

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