One of Vladimir Putin’s ministers has a new theory about the “root cause” of the Ukraine war – and, unsurprisingly, he doesn’t say the Russian president’s own land grab is to blame.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, pinned the two-and-a-half year conflict on the US and Ukraine’s “fantasies” on Thursday.
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According to Russian state news agency TASS, Ryabkov said: “It has been repeatedly said that Washington’s policy of connivance with Kyiv’s most destructive, far-reaching plans and fantasies is by and large the root cause [of] this acute crisis, fraught with high risks and the possibility of sliding into a full-scale conflict between Russia and the historic West.”
Putin decided to invade Ukraine in February 2022, baselessly claiming Kyiv was run by “neo-Nazis” – Ukraine quickly wrote it off as a land grab and has been trying to expel the Russians ever since.
Like the rest of the West, the US has been supporting Ukraine in its self-defence by providing weapons and substantial funds.
But Washington has so far refused to let Kyiv fire Western-supplied missiles into Russian land out of fear it would expand the regional conflict into a global war.
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The Pentagon said last month that “no one capability” would change the outcome of the war, but has not officially ruled out changing the restrictions around using long-range missiles.
And Ryabkov claimed these words were still not enough to reassure Moscow that the conflict would escalate.
He said: “We need not some signals, but real evidence that there is an understanding of the futility of unconditional support for the minions in Kyiv, and of the dangers that are exacerbated in a situation where this policy is not revised.”
Russia has been bombarding Ukraine for more than two years.
Liz Cheney says Donald Trump’s recent threats against NATO allies demonstrate a “dangerous” misunderstanding of America’s foreign diplomacy.
In a Sunday interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” the former congresswoman told Jake Tapper she was outraged by Trump, who earlier this month said he would “encourage” Russian President Vladimir Putin to attack NATO signatories that aren’t spending enough on defense funding.
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“It’s dangerous, it shows a complete lack of understanding of America’s role in the world,” Cheney said. “It’s disgraceful.”
While Trump has repeatedly complained about NATO countries being behind on their “bills,” the alliance doesn’t exactly work that way.
NATO is anchored in the principle of mutual defense, meaning each member country must commit to enough defense spending to ensure their nation’s militaries are prepared to step in if another member of the alliance is attacked.
Furthermore, the U.S. president does not have the power to unilaterally withdraw the country from NATO.
“I can’t imagine any other American president of either party since the establishment of NATO saying such a thing,” Cheney continued. “It’s completely uninformed and ignorant and dangerous.”
During her interview, the retired Republican legislator also told Tapper she was worried by where Trump’s sympathy to Russia may lead the Republican Party as a whole.
“We have to take seriously the extent to which you’ve now got a Putin wing of the Republican Party,” she said, calling it critical to keep that faction out of the West Wing.
As the war enters its third month, it’s clear the Russian invasion has not gone entirely to plan – but that doesn’t mean victory for the Ukrainian resistance is on the horizon.
Further horrors have been unfolding in the east of Ukraine recently, particularly in the besieged city of Mariupol, suggesting Russia has no intention of giving up or going quietly.
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The Ukrainian president has laid out exactly the kind of help the country needs from the west to prevent the war from spilling over into the rest of Europe. So will Nato step up, or will it continue holding back?
The war took a turn for the worse this week
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Russia has focused its efforts on the east of Ukraine, while its attacks become more merciless.
Newly released satellite images suggest haunting mass graves have been dug near the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which has been under siege for more than a month. The graves could hold as many as 9,000 bodies according to the local authorities.
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Around three-quarters of Mariupol’s residents have already fled, and a shocking 20,000 civilians are estimated to have been killed.
Despite all of this, Ukrainian forces allege they are still in control of the city – even as Russia declares its first substantial victory in the war.
Russian president Vladimir Putin previously told the forces in the area they had to either surrender or die but he has since called off an attack on the final stronghold, a steel mill where around 2,000 Ukrainian fighters are reportedly hiding.
Instead, he ordered such an unshakable blockade of the plant “so that a fly can’t get through”, which gave the Kremlin a chance to declare a win without significant casualities.
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The city is a significant battleground in the war because it is the last hurdle in Moscow’s bid to create a land bridge between its territories in the eastern Donbas region and the Crimean Peninsula.
The Ministry of Defence has warned that Putin’s decision to blockade the steel plant “likely indicates a desire to contain Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol” so the Russian forces can be spread across the east of the country.
Meanwhile, eastern Donbas still faces intense shelling by the Russians, even as its troops “are still suffering from losses sustained earlier in the conflict”.
Detective chief superintendent Dominic Murphy from the Met War Crimes police also told PA new agency that it had received approximately 50 referrals from people with UK links about the Russian invasion.
As the war continues to escalate, he explains: “What we’re seeing is incredibly harrowing, beyond comprehension.
“In not far off 17 years in counterterrorism, (it is) some of the worst possible footage you could imagine seeing.”
He said it is possible that he has seen evidence of war crimes in these referrals, along with evidence of “other international crimes”.
So what kind of help does Ukraine want?
The main request coming from Ukraine now is for more money.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the World Bank and IMF that the country needs $7 billion (£5.4 billion) per month to supplement its losses caused by Russia.
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It comes after the country has already suffered around $60 billion (£46.6 billion) in physical damage from the Russian invasion.
He explained: “We will need hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild all this later and recover from this war.”
The Ukrainian president also called for Russia to be excluded from the World Bank and IMF, saying such bodies are “definitely not the place for a country which is trying to ruin the lives of its neighbours”.
Ukraine used to want to join Nato so that its forces would help defend the country, but it has since abandoned this effort.
In mid-March, Zelenskyy said: “Ukraine is not a member of Nato. We understand that. We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It’s a truth and it must be recognised.”
Ukraine used to plead for a no-fly zone, but to the country’s disappointment, this was rejected by the west over fears it would be seen as an escalation of tensions with Russia and officially pull Nato into the war.
Instead, Zelenskyy now asks for weapons which are “comparable” with Moscow’s, including fighter jets.
The mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boychenko, has also called for more humanitarian corridors, explaining: “We need only one thing – the full evacuation of the population. About 100,000 people remain in Mariupol.”
So what is the west actually doing?
The UK supplied Kyiv with 4,000 anti-tank weapons and anti-tank Javelin missiles, while another batch of 6,000 firearms is on its way now.
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Around £25 million in financial support was announced in March, along with body armour, helmets and combat boots.
The US and the EU have pledged to send more weapons, while France has sent £83 million worth of equipment.
Canada, Norway and even Sweden – famously neutral – have chipped in too to support Ukraine with weapons.
Since Zelenskyy’s plea, the US has promised to pass an extra $800 million (£615 million) to supply Ukraine with more equipment, ammunition and drones while. The UK is now training some Ukrainian soldiers to use armoured vehicles.
Boris Johnson said earlier this week: “They need support with more artillery, that is what we will be giving them.”
Why stop there?
The west has been extremely reluctant to interfere with the war out of fear that the war would escalate.
But, critics claim what Ukraine’s allies have offered so far is simply not enough.
Tory MP Tobias Ellwood told Radio 4′s Today programme: “The bigger question, not answered by Nato or indeed us, is what does success look like?
“We are doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing but not enough to ensure they win.
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“So what does our long-term mission objective look like? Is it pushing Russia back to pre-February lines or is it liberating the entire Donbas region? That’s absolutely critical in how we choose to up-arm the Ukrainians.”
Now more than five million Ukrainian refugees have now fled from the country, primarily to the rest of Europe, there is also an argument that the west is already involved.
Russian propagandists have already claimed that “World War 3” has started and that Russia is “fighting Nato”.
The Kremlin has even warned Washington recently that continued military aid could lead to “unpredictable consequences”.
Former vice chief of staff at Nato’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), Michel Yakovleff, also called for the west to take further action this week.
Asked if the west has done enough to help Ukraine, he told French broadcaster France24: “Very bluntly, and that is my personal opinion, no, not since 2014.
“Ukraine is paying now for our desire not to escalate since 2014.”
He said that while the UK and the US’ actions now “have helped massively”, the influx of new materials has come at a time when both sides are exhausted.
“Will Ukraine have time to integrate this new equipment before utter exhaustion? I don’t know.”
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He concluded that Nato, which calls itself the “most powerful alliance in history”, should not be “frightened” of Putin and “cower” in the face of the potential “consequences”.
For weeks there had been warnings, but many serious people could not believe it: Russia would never invade neighbouring Ukraine. Would they?
Then, on February 24, it happened. Tanks and soldiers streamed across the border, scenes more reminiscent of the Second World War than the remote cyber warfare that modern conflict was supposed to be dominated by.
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The capital, Kyiv, was targetted. But Vladamir Putin appears to have under-estimated heavily-armed Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers, and Russia’s lightning strike appears to be nothing of the sort. A month on, here’s where the war stands.
What has happened in Ukraine?
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As Putin’s frustration has grown, so has the brutality of Russian forces – killing civilians as well as soldiers and repeatedly accused of war crimes. But in the month since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops have met stiff resistance and failed to capture any major city.
They have instead been bombarding and encircling cities, laying waste to residential areas and driving around a quarter of Ukraine’s 44 million people from their homes. More than 3.7 million of them have fled abroad, half to neighbouring Poland.
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Ukraine cities have been flattened by Putin in a manner similar to the way he destroyed the Chechen capital Grozny at the turn of the century. Among them is the besieged city of Mariupol, where authorities on Friday said about 300 people died in a Russian airstrike earlier this month on a theatre where hundreds of people were sheltering.
Mariupol, a city of 400,000 before the war, has been among the worst hit by the Russian bombardment. Tens of thousands of people are still believed to be trapped with little access to food, power or heat.
The cities of Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy in the east have also endured devastating bombardment. The United Nations said it had confirmed 1,081 civilian deaths and 1,707 injuries in Ukraine since the February 24 invasion, adding that the real toll was likely higher.
The rise of Volodymyr Zelenskyy
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Now cutting a familiar figure the world over – rallying his people from fortified bunkers, unshaven in olive-coloured T-shirt – little was known about Volodymyr Zelenskyy outside his homeland a month ago.
The former TV comic and actor has become the symbol of Ukraine’s resistance, deploying his oratory and presentational skills on social media and in defiant speeches.
The 44-year-old’s wartime leadership has even been compared to Winston Churchill by British politicians. Boris Johnson, who has written a book on Churchill, said: “I think that president Zelenskyy has proved to be a quite remarkable leader of his people – he’s rallied them and he’s been their voice. He knows, as Churchill said of himself, he may not have been the lion but he’s been privileged to give the roar.”
Zelenskyy’s leadership help explain the massive support from Western allies by way of “defensive” artillery. But he has been frustrated. His biggest request since the outbreak of war – a so-called no-fly zone to prevent bombings from Putin’s planes – has been rejected time and again, with the US and its allies fearing the move would trigger a wider world war with Russia.
Russia struggling
Russia’s invasion remains largely frustrated by the dogged resistance of Ukrainians, and there are signs Putin could be scaling back his ambitions.
On Friday, the defence ministry said that having accomplished the “first phase” of their military operations, Russian forces would concentrate on “liberating” the Donbas region which is part-held by Moscow-backed separatist rebels.
Western officials said it was a recognition that Russian forces were overstretched and may have to “pause” operations around Kyiv and other cities while they focus on the east of the country.
Russia’s defence ministry said 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed 3,825 wounded, the Interfax news agency reported. Ukraine says 15,000 Russian soldiers have died.
What is the West doing?
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Western powers have been urged to step up military support for the Ukrainian forces. But, since Ukraine is not a member of Nato, the US, the UK and its allies are limited in what they can do.
The military alliance called the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation – or Nato – and its 30 member nations are bound by Article 5 of its constitution. They agree to mutual defence – military action – in response to an enemy attack. The principle goes: “An attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies.”
Nato is anxious about further escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers – the US and Russia – and edging everyone closer to the “World War III” scenario many fear.
But the region is on edge. On Friday, US president Joe Biden visited Poland – which is a Nato member and shares a border with Ukraine – to underscore his commitment to the country. The US has said that it will defend “every inch” of Nato territory, and Warsaw is keen to see even more US troops stationed on the alliance’s eastern flank.
How does it end?
Four rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have yet to result in anything close to a diplomatic resolution.
Russia wants legal assurances that Ukraine will never join Nato, and for Ukraine to take a so-called neutral status and change its constitution to guarantee this.
The Kremlin has also demanded that Ukraine acknowledges Crimea, which Putin annexed in 2014, as Russian territory. It also wants recognition of the independence of pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas. The conflict in the region, which has claimed at least 14,000 lives, was Russia’s fabricated pretext to invade Ukraine last month.
I fear that an indefinite prolongation of the war in Ukraine is the most likely scenario. The major obstacle to a peace agreement is the Crimea and the Donbass where Putin can’t make any concession without losing face and where I don’t expect Ukraine to cave in.
Ukraine is seeking a ceasefire and a troop withdrawal. It has said it is willing to negotiate, but not to surrender or accept any ultimatums.
Ukraine has said it is prepared to accept security guarantees that stop short of joining Nato – a compromise on its part. But giving up the Crimea and the Donbas could be a bridge too far, and gaining that territory now seems to be Putin’s over-riding objective. Stalemate could beckon.
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