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Building A Yellow Wall? Can Ed Davey And His New MPs Capitalise On Their Election Triumph?

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At the end of the 1972 film The Candidate, newly-elected US senator Bill McKay, played by Robert Redford, asks his adviser Marvin Lucas a simple question: “What do we do now?”

It is a question which could equally have been asked of Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, as his party gathers in Brighton this weekend for its first conference since its outstanding result at the general election in July.

The Lib Dems saw their representation in parliament soar from 15 MPs to 72, allowing them to reclaim from the SNP their position as third-biggest party in the Commons.

With the Tories reduced to a rump of 121 MPs, the result has presented Davey with a golden opportunity to present his party as the true opposition to a Labour government with a huge parliamentary majority.

So far, however, it has sometimes appeared as though the Lib Dems are caught between two stools, unsure whether to attack the Labour government or what remains of the Conservatives.

Polling by Savanta, exclusively shared with HuffPost UK, highlights the party’s dilemma.

It shows that voters believe that with Labour in power, the Lib Dems need to “rediscover their purpose”.

Awkwardly for Davey, the research also reveals that Lib Dem voters are pretty happy with the job Keir Starmer is doing so far as prime minister.

They are the only group, apart from Labour supporters, who give the new PM a positive approval rating. And nearly a third – 30% – say they like Starmer and his policies.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta told HuffPost UK: “Liberal Democrat voters are broadly pretty happy – with the direction of government, the issues they’re tackling and Keir Starmer himself.

“That’s a problem for Ed Davey and his team, as it means they need to find a balance and ultimately rediscover their purpose, now that they’re holding Labour to account, rather than the Conservatives.

“The Liberal Democrats are clearly in the strongest position they’ve been in some while, and are likely looking forward to party conference.

“Through a mixture of message discipline on the NHS and sewage, they’ve taken down the Blue Wall. But the question now is where next? Do you attempt to make further inroads with a depleted Conservative party, or start focusing your ire at the government – who your voters quite like?”

Separate research by the More in Common think-tank, also seen by HuffPost UK, suggests the Lib Dems have a golden opportunity to do even better at the next election – if they have the courage to grasp it.

Focus groups with Lib Dem voters showed they want the party to be a “competent and distinctive” opposition, pushing Labour for tougher action on climate change and a closer relationship with the EU.

Chris Annous of More in Common said the 72 Lib Dem MPs also need to “establish themselves as community champions” if they want to return to parliament at the next election.

“There is room for pushing for a closer relationship with Europe and a quicker timetable on climate action in a way that is unlikely to backfire either in the Blue Wall or the Liberal Democrats own ‘Yellow Wall’, that now extends from Eastbourne to Exmoor, but can instead help the party establish themselves as a distinctive opposition to Labour,” he said.

“These two issues are popular both with their 2024 voters and those who considered voting Liberal Democrat in 2024.”

Ed Davey carried out a series of stunts during the election campaign.
Ed Davey carried out a series of stunts during the election campaign.

Hugh Hastings via Getty Images

Wendy Chamberlain, the MP for North East Fife and the Lib Dems’ work and pensions spokesperson, told HuffPost UK that the party is already proving itself to be the opposition.

“It’s quite clear that the Tories have gone into a even greater degree of meltdown since July 4, and their leadership election is going on until November.

“We’ve already demonstrated that we’re an effective opposition. One example is on Labour’s decision to cut winter fuel payments. That doesn’t feel like the change that people voted for.”

A senior Lib Dem source said: “A lot of people voted for us to get rid of the Tories, but if you look at the polling, the top reason was because of our position on the NHS and care, so it’s really important that we continue to campaign on that issue.

“People put their trust in us at the election and now we need to work hard to keep that trust.

“If you look at the seats where we’re now in second place, they are Conservative-facing. The way we think we can defeat more Tories next time is by being a better opposition than them. We’re going to be united and coherent while they tear themselves apart.”

Ed Davey spent the election campaign as if he was on a six-week long stag trip, paddleboarding, surfing, salsa dancing and bungee-jumping his way around the country.

For him and his party, the serious business of holding Labour to account while consigning the Tories to irrelevance starts now.

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9 Key Takeaways From A Very Eventful Election Night

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Labour won by a landslide while the Tories had some of their worst ever results – but this election also painted a very complex picture for Westminster.

Five independents were elected, while the rise of the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and the Green Party show that last night was not just a tale of two parties.

Here’s a look at all the main stories from overnight.

1. Huge Labour victory

With a couple more seats still to be counted, the party took a whopping 412 seats, only six fewer than it did when Tony Blair was the helm in his famous landslide of 1997.

That works out to a gain of at least 211 seats compared to the 2019 general election.

It means a comfortable majority is ahead for Keir Starmer, as Labour were the largest party in England, Scotland and Wales.

The so-called “red wall” in the North of England was completely restored, too.

However, it’s not all plain sailing – Starmer comes to office on the smallest share of the vote of any winning party in UK history as the votes were widespread across many constituencies but not particularly high in number in any seats.

Only 33.7% of voters backed the supposedly reformed Labour, just 1.6% higher than his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn secured in 2019 when he famously lost.

That seems to reflect the general sentiment that support for Labour was more of an anti-Tory tactic rather than an endorsement of Starmer and his party.

Labour leader and incoming Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and wife Victoria enter 10 Downing Street
Labour leader and incoming Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and wife Victoria enter 10 Downing Street

Carl Court via Getty Images

2. Drop in Muslim support for Labour

The party’s flip-flopping over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has had a profound effect on its Muslim supporters.

In constituencies with a large Muslim demographic, support declined by around 23 points to 39%.

But this gave way to the rise of the independents, like ousted Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn who was re-elected into his constituency of Islington North.

In fact five pro-Gaza independent candidates were elected in total, outnumbering the total Reform UK candidates.

3. Worst Tory defeat in history

Rishi Sunak may have comfortably held onto his seat in North Yorkshire, but he was easily the biggest loser of the night.

He led the Conservative Party into its worst electoral defeat ever seen, losing 250 seats.

The Tories secured just 121 constituencies as the party’s vote share fell by 19.9 percentage points to 23.7%.

For comparison, John Major’s Conservatives won 30% of the vote share when they endured a huge defeat in 1997.

They will now have zero seats in Wales, and only one in the North East of England and one in the North West.

Many previously “safe” Tory seats were lost overnight, including four of the five constituencies were the last five Conservative leaders were elected.

David Cameron’s Witney went to the Lib Dems as did Theresa May’s Maidenhead.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Liz Truss’s South West Norfolk both went red for Labour.

And then there were 11 shock defeats for serving cabinet ministers – and the ousting for former PM Truss.

The share of the vote particularly fell in areas where high numbers backed leaving the EU.

The dramatic night means there’s likely to be a brutal battle to shape the party now, as Tories struggle to decide whether to pull it further right or into the centre.

Outgoing Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunal
Outgoing Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunal

Christopher Furlong via Getty Images

4. Best Lib Dem result since 1923

The party has secured 71 seats – a whopping increase compared to the 2019 election, where they had only eight, and beating their 2005 record of 62.

They’ve won both new seats and old constituencies back – and ousted four cabinet ministers – albeit on just 12% of the vote share.

The Lib Dems also secured constituencies once held by former PMs David Cameron and Theresa May in their campaign where they targeted Tory areas.

It’s a far cry from the 2019 result when the party leader Jo Swinson unexpectedly lost her seat.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is greeted by supporters
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is greeted by supporters

Gareth Fuller – PA Images via Getty Images

5. SNP in chaos

The Nationalists, who have completely dominated Scottish politics since 2014, secured just nine seats in a major blow to the project for independence.

That’s a drop of 38 representatives in Westminster, with many of their seats going to Labour and a handful going to both the Lib Dems and the Tories.

The SNP’s share of the vote has therefore fallen by 15 points – while Labour’s has increased by 17 in Scotland.

But it’s not a complete wipeout, considering the party still commanding a minority government in the Scottish parliament in Holyrood.

Yet, those seats could soon be at risk in the 2026 devolved election, depending on how Labour’s first few years in parliament goes.

Labour will also have to grapple with the increase of independence supporters among their voters.

6. Reform get a foothold in the Commons

The populist party took votes from the collapse of the Conservative support in many places, secured its first four elected MPs ever.

Party leader Nigel Farage won a seat for the first time (after seven failed attempts over the years) and Tory defector Lee Anderson – the party’s first ever representative in the Commons – was re-elected.

Reform chair Richard Tice and Rupert Lowe were elected, too.

Considering how quickly Reform has managed to gather support – Farage only entered the race two weeks after the election was called – the populists claim they will be able to put serious pressure on Labour in the next five years.

Farage has previously said he wants his party to be the main opposition to Keir Starmer’s party by the time of the next election, and last night said: “We’re coming for Labour, be in no doubt about that.”

7. Green Party get most MPs ever

With four MPs in Bristol Central, Waveney Valley, North Herefordshire and Brighton Pavilion, the Greens had their best set of results ever.

Until now, the party has only ever held the East Sussex constituency of Brighton Pavilion, giving them just one seat in parliament.

But last night, the party’s co-leader Carla Denyer overturned Labour’s shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire with a 10,000 majority.

The other co-leader Adrian Ramsay defeated a 22,000 Tory majority in Waveney Valley, with a swing to the Greens of 32.1%.

Overall, it is expected to take 7% of the overall vote share – more than double what it secured in the 2019 election.

Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer after casting her vote in the 2024 General Election at Redland Park United Reformed Church in Bristol.
Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer after casting her vote in the 2024 General Election at Redland Park United Reformed Church in Bristol.

Jonathan Brady – PA Images via Getty Images

8. Sinn Fein hold on

The Republican party held onto its seven seats in Westminster, although it does not take them in protest to Northern Ireland being part of the UK.

It means most of the NI seats in Westminster will remain empty.

Sinn Fein is already the largest in local government and in the devolved government of Stormont.

And while the Democratic Unionist Party lost three of its eight seats, with supporters moving to other unionist parties, there was not a noteworthy shift in the vote share between Unionists and Nationalists.

9. Fall in overall voter turnout

This was the second lowest turnout ever recorded with only 60% of the electorate turning up, rivalled only by the 59% seen in 2001.

That suggests apathy and frustration may be more prevalent among the electorate than politicians realise.

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Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey Falls Off Paddleboard ‘On Purpose’

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Ed Davey deliberately threw himself off a paddleboard on Tuesday, as the Lib Dem leader battled for attention in the first full week of the election campaign.

The Lib Dems have a long history of staging eye-catching stunts to avoid their message being drowned out by the Tories and Labour.

During a campaign stop at Lake Windermere in the Lake District, Davey took a paddleboard into the water then fell off it repeatedly.

Asked by the BBC is he had jumped in “on purpose”, Davey confessed: “Once I did. The rest I just kept falling in. But it’s fun.”

He said the “serious message” the party was trying to highlight was how sewage was damaging the UK’s beaches, rivers and lakes.

The Lib Dems were almost wiped out at the 2015 election following the coalition government and the have struggled to make gains since.

But the party scored a series of impressive by-election victories in the last parliament.

Davey has now tried to position the party as solidly anti-Tory. He said in many parts of the country it was a Lib Dem vote that was the “powerful vote to defeat the Conservatives”.

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Can The Tories Defy The Polls And Hold On In Today’s Crucial By-Elections?

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The world’s attention has understandably been focused on the Middle East in recent days, and is likely to remain so for some time to come.

But two by-elections on Thursday have the potential to be much more politically significant for Rishi Sunak.

The Tories are defending two nominally safe seats, in Mid Bedforshire and Tamworth.

It is no exaggeration to say that, were the Conservatives to lose both of them, the party could swiftly go into meltdown.

In Mid Beds, the Tories are defending a 25,000 majority, while in Tamworth, the party won the seat in 2019 by 20,000 votes. On paper at least, they should be unassailable.

But given the government’s unpopularity, and the circumstances which led to the by-elections, both Labour and the Lib Dems still hold out hopes of causing an upset.

The contest in Mid Bedfordshire has been caused by the resignation of Nadine Dorries after she was denied the peerage promised to her by Boris Johnson.

In Tamworth, meanwhile, sitting MP Chris Pincher quit amid allegations of sexual misconduct which saw him suspended from the Commons for eight weeks.

Tory hopes of hanging on in Mid Beds have been boosted by an extraordinary war of words between Labour and the Lib Dems.

Both parties insist they are best placed to win, leading to the very real possibility of the anti-Tory vote being split, thereby allowing Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye to get elected.

Tamworth is a straight shoot-out between the Tories and Labour, who are odds-on favourites with the bookies.

Nevertheless, Labour insiders insist the prospect of winning either seat is a “moonshot”.

One shadow cabinet member told HuffPost UK: “They’re two very safe Tory seats and it would take a miracle for Labour to win either. Mid Beds is a genuine three way split, but still a real long shot.”

Shadow science, innovation and technology secretary Peter Kyle, who is Labour’s campaign co-ordinator in the seat, said: “I think objectively anybody looking at all of the campaigns would rather be in our position than the others, but this is unlike anything I’ve experienced and uncertainties are constantly lurking.”

But another Labour MP said: “Mid Beds is the Tories for the keeping – no chance of that turning red.

“And to be quite honest, we don’t need it anyway. It’s not a target seat of ours and this isn’t a general election. If anything, it’s amusing that the Tories will frame it as a big win when all they’ve done is keep a seat that is already theirs.”

Labour sources insist winning in Tamworth – where Pincher received 68% of the vote at the last election – would be an even bigger achievement than the party’s stunning victory in Selby and Ainsty in July.

But a senior Tory MP told HuffPost: “I reckon our chances are poor in Tamworth because of how grim Chris Pincher’s reason for leaving was. I think people will punish the party for what he did and vote against us as a protest for all the sleaze we’ve seen in recent years.”

And a Labour MP said: “We do feel good about Tamworth. We know we have the power to overturn such huge majorities, as we’ve done it before.

“This seat in particular often reflects wider politics. It was Labour under Blair and Brown, Tory after that. And now, reflecting how well Labour are doing in the polls, I think that trend will continue.“

Defeat for the Tories would be as much of a psychological blow as an electoral one.

It’s the constituency of former Conservative prime minister Robert Peel, who in 1834 published the Tamworth Manifesto, which paved the way for the modern-day Tory Party.

One Labour MP dispensed with the usual pre-by-election caution and predicted a glory night for the party.

We’ve got both seats in the bag,” the MP said. “It doesn’t matter where the constituency is, or its history – the public want a change and are fed up of Tory lies.

“Their loyal voters are doubting them too, and we will see that on Thursday.”

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Labour Tries To Shut Down Talk Of A Coalition Government With The Liberal Democrats

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Labour’s Wes Streeting has insisted they are “not entertaining” the prospect of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

The shadow health secretary said he did not think it is the “scenario” the country will be in at the next general election.

However, he did not rule out a coalition with the Lib Dems when repeatedly pressed on the possibility in an interview with Sky’s Sophy Ridge.

In separate interview Lib Dem leader Ed Davey explicitly ruled out working with the Tories but did not rule out a coalition with Labour.

Last week’s council results point to a hung parliament at the next general election. They suggest Labour would be the largest party, but short of a majority.

Former prime minister David Cameron and former deputy prime minister Nick Clegg outside 10 Downing Street in London, on May 12, 2010.
Former prime minister David Cameron and former deputy prime minister Nick Clegg outside 10 Downing Street in London, on May 12, 2010.

AFP via Getty Images

It could be similar to the situation the Tories found themselves in in 2010 when they formed a coalition government with the Lib Dems.

Asked whether Labour would be prepared to go into coalition with the Lib Dems, Streeting said: “We’re not even entertaining that prospect…

“I just don’t think that is the scenario that we are going to be in after the next general election.”

Asked a third time about local election results pointing towards a hung parliament, he said: “This is a process, not an event. We’re not at the final destination yet in terms of the general election.”

Put to him that he was not ruling it out, he gave examples of why “we shouldn’t read the local elections right across”.

He said: “Take Hull, where I saw through gritted teeth the Liberal Democrats did rather well.

“I heard the Lib Dem leader of Hull council the other night saying ‘well, look, locally, people have voted Lib Dem but at the general election people in this city vote Labour’.”

He added: “We’re not complacent about this and there’s so much more still to come.”

When leader Lib Dem leader Davey was asked on the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg show about a coalition with Labour, he said: “That is a hypothetical question because we don’t know what’s going to happen after the next election.”

Put to him that he was ruling out working with the Tories but not Labour, said: “The focus is on getting rid of Conservative MPs. I make no apology for that.”

His deputy leader Daisy Cooper similarly did not rule out a coalition with Labour when challenged.

She told Sky they had “ruled out” working with the Conservatives because of the “damage they are doing to the country”.

But pressed on a coalition with Labour, she replied: “Everything we do between now and the general election will be about focusing on getting Liberal Democrat MPs elected.”

Thursday’s results were disastrous for the Tories who lost some 1,050 seats and control of nearly 50 councils.

It means Labour is now the largest party of local government – overtaking the Conservatives for the first time since 2002.

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Labour Increases Poll Lead Over The Tories To 28 Points

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The Labour Party is a whopping 28 points ahead of the Conservatives, according to a fresh poll.

A YouGov voting intention survey shows the Tories on just 22% of the vote – down two points from their previous survey on 8-9 February.

The pollster found Labour on 50% of the vote – an increase of three points from their last poll.

Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9% of the vote (-1), while the Greens have 6% (no change) and Reform UK have 7% of the vote (+1).

While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters celebrated the latest figures.

Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket.

However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories.

A Deltapoll survey found Labour on a 22 point lead while a Redfield & Wilton poll put them on a 27 point lead.

According to the YouGov poll, Keir Starmer’s lead over Rishi Sunak has also increased to 13 points.

Participants were asked which party leader would make the best prime minister. Starmer is on 34% of the vote (+1) while Sunak is on 21% (-4).

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Petrol Up 12-A-Litre And Other Measures Buried In Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement

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Jeremy Hunt has set out his plans for almost £25 billion in tax increases and more than £30 billion in spending cuts to fill the UK’s financial blackhole – but some measures have received more attention than others.

While increasing the windfall tax on oil and gas giants and reducing the salary threshold at which workers begin paying the 45p top rate of income tax were highlighted by the chancellor, many striking moves were buried within the pages of autumn statement green book. Here are just five:

1. Fuel duty set to go up by 23% next year.

How motorists will be affected by a budget is typically one of the headline-grabbing announcements, and yet Hunt failed to mention fuel duty.

But based on a forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which combines the forecast for RPI inflation next year and the assumption that the 5p cut to fuel duty will end, the chancellor could hike the tax for the first time since 2011.

As the Office for Budget Responsibility said: “The planned 23% increase in the fuel duty rate in late-March 2023, which adds £5.7 billion to receipts next year.

“This would be a record cash increase, and the first time any government has raised fuel duty rates in cash terms since January 1, 2011.

“It is expected to raise the price of petrol and diesel by around 12 pence a litre.”

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Tory MPs are likely to continue their campaign urging the chancellor to keep prices at the pumps down.

2. Big win for banks.

The tax surcharge on banks is to be slashed to 3% from 8%.

The move aligns with the government’s decision to hike up corporation tax from 19% to 25% from April, which banks pay on top of the surcharge.

It means banks will still be paying a higher rate of tax than they were previously, but by just 1% rather than the 6% that they could have faced had the surcharge stayed the same.

3. Police and school building cuts.

Home Office spending is set to be slashed by £100m in real-terms by 2024-25, which is likely to affect frontline policing.

And while Hunt said the government will invest an extra £2.3 billion per year in schools, there will be a £1 billion (14%) real-terms cut in capital spending on education in 2024-25 – meaning crumbling schools left in disrepair.

4. Stealth taxes.

The now six-year freeze in income tax thresholds is a favourite “stealth tax” of the government – mainly because it avoids announcing a rise, and it tends to affect money people haven’t yet earned, so are less likely to notice the change.

Thursday’s change means a total of 3.2 million new income taxpayers and 2.6 million more people dragged into the higher 40p tax bracket, according to the OBR.

5. Cut to social housing investment.

The chancellor has said he will cap the increase in social housing rents at a maximum of 7% in 2023/24, saving the average tenant £200 next year. Hunt said that without the cap, families living in the social rented sector could face rent hikes of up to 11%

But with the government refusing to cover the shortfall, social housing providers will have to fill the gap somehow, and could lead to a reduction in investment in properties and building new homes by £630 million over five years.

Sarah Olney, Treasury spokesperson of the Liberal Democrats, which highlighted many of the little-mentioned changes, said: “Underneath the surface of this terrible ‘cost of chaos’ budget are yet more hidden horrors.

“Everything from police to social housing to our crumbling schools is being left in the dust by this Conservative government.

“Everyone will be forced to pay for this cost of chaos budget with their public services being slashed more each year.

“Banks are being given a huge tax giveaway while millions are dragged into a higher rate of tax.

“The accumulated impact of these cuts will mean a bleak recession for years to come caused by an out of touch Conservative government.”

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Analysis: Ignore The Tory Spin, The By-Election Results Are A Disaster For Boris Johnson

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Lord Frost is very prominent these days, isn’t he?

The man responsible for negotiating Brexit, who later quit because he didn’t think the government was Tory enough, seems to be everywhere.

Yesterday he delivered a speech about how Brexit was a roaring success.

Sticking with the far-fetched theme, this morning

It’s important to cut through the noise and spin on the Wakefield and Tiverton results.

Both are terrible for @Conservatives.

Neither is particularly good for @labour or @LibDems.

Why? (1/4)

— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022 ” target=”_blank” class=” js-entry-link cet-internal-link” data-vars-item-name=”he opined” data-vars-item-type=”text” data-vars-unit-name=”62b58e1be4b06594c1e2bddf” data-vars-unit-type=”buzz_body” data-vars-target-content-id=”https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/

” data-vars-target-content-type=”feed” data-vars-type=”web_internal_link” data-vars-subunit-name=”article_body” data-vars-subunit-type=”component” data-vars-position-in-subunit=”0″>he opined that last night’s by-election results were “not particularly good” for Labour and the Lib Dems.

Yes, you read that correctly. The two by-elections – which saw the Tories comfortably lose to Labour in Wakefield and be humiliated by the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Honiton – were actually underwhelming for the victors.

Try telling that to Lib Dem leader Ed Davey and his new MP Richard Foord, who celebrated their result by declaring it was “time to show Boris the door” by, er, standing next to a door.

To be fair, Lord Frost concede that the results were also “terrible” for his own party.

But he said an analysis of the results showed that the combined Lab/Lib vote share only went up marginally in Devon and actually fell in west Yorkshire.

The real story of the night, he insisted, was that traditional Tory voters opted to stay at home. “We as Conservatives must decide why that is, and what we do about it,” he added, in a less-than-subtle hint that it may well be time to give Johnson the heave-ho.

Of course, Lord Frost wasn’t the only Tory trying to rain on the Labour and Lib Dem parades.

The heroic spin coming out of CCHQ was that history shows that Tory governments lose by-elections but then go on to win the subsequent by-elections.

Even the resignation of party chairman Oliver Dowden failed to persuade them that things in the Conservative garden are far from rosey.

But what that thesis fails to acknowledge is that after 1992, the Tories lost no fewer than eight by-elections before going on to lose by a landslide to Tony Blair’s New Labour in 1997.

It also ignores the fact that in Tiverton and Honiton, the Lib Dems came from 27,000 votes behind the Tories in 2019 to win by more than 6,000.

And while Labour’s performance in Wakefield didn’t trouble the political Richter scale, if they repeated it across the country, it would be enough to send Keir Starmer into Number 10.

Senior Conservatives have an awful lot of thinking to do over the coming weekend. It would help if they started by dealing in reality, rather than fantasy.

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Tiverton And Honiton By-Election: Lib Dems Fight The Expectations Game

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“I know he’s a madman in some ways,” says Loll Christie on Honiton high street. “But my argument again is — I think he kind of deserved a little party?”

The Lib Dems are expected to win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election on June 23, overturning the current hefty 24,000 Tory majority.

But there are still quite a lot of Conservatives in Devon. And the expectations game can kill you.

It has not been a good few weeks for Boris Johnson. And there are a lot of things going in the Lib Dems favour.

Tiverton is in their former south west stronghold – although the party has never held this seat itself.

At the local elections in May, the Lib Dems seized control of neighbouring Somerset council. The party has climbed to 15 per cent in the national polls.

The prime minister was recently almost ousted by his own MPs, but his survival has allowed opposition parties to argue it is the entire Tory party that needs to be given a kicking.

And the by-election itself was triggered when the incumbent Tory MP, Neil Parish, resigned after being caught watching porn in the Commons.

“The tide,” Ed Davey says, “Is going out for the Tories.” But the Lib Dem leader, campaigning in the seat, is trying to stop everyone getting carried away.

“The Tories are fighting far harder than they did in North Shropshire,” he says. “There is a battle on our hands. I think it could be really close.”

It is a delicate balancing act, of making a Lib Dem victory highly possible, to make it worthwhile voters turning out, but not so inevitable potential supporters do not think they need to.

The “bicep kissing strategy”, deployed in 2019, of over egging expectations, it is not.

WPA Pool via Getty Images

In December the Lib Dems overturned a 23,000 Tory majority in North Shropshire. This time last year they did similar in Chesham and Amersham.

Both of these seats were snatched before the partygate saga had played out and the cost of living crisis had yet to bite.

Repeating it in Tiverton and Honiton would arguably be their biggest scalp yet.

All three are part of what the Lib Dems have successfully, and somewhat cheekily, branded the “blue wall” – southern Tory seats the party hopes are vulnerable to a yellow wave.

A few days out of the Chesham vote, Lib Dems on the ground were bullishly confident of victory. Westminster was somewhat taken by surprise by that result.

In Tiverton and Honiton the mood is more cautious optimism, despite a Tory loss already having been priced in by many Conservative MPs.

“People do think that. The bookies think that. They are just wrong. I mean, they don’t see the data we see, they don’t knock on doors,” Davey tells HuffPost UK when asked if the Lib Dem candidate, Richard Foord, is all but certain to be elected on Thursday.

“What’s different from North Shropshire is that some Labour supporters are already backing us. It took time to switch them in North Shropshire,” he says.

“The difficulty is you only win these seats if you persuade Conservatives to move over. Some Conservatives in Tiverton and Honiton are angry. But not all of them.”

On the same day as people vote in Tiverton and Honiton, there is a by-election in the red wall Tory held seat of Wakefield.

Labour are expected to easily win the seat back. Although, again, party sources are talking down expectations of a landslide. One poll gave Labour a 20-point lead in the seat.

Davey rejects the suggestion he struck an agreement with Keir Starmer to divvy up the two seats between them. “There’s no deal,” he says. “It’s just rational behaviour.

“My job as Lib Dem leader is to get as many Lib Dem MPs we can with the resources we’ve got.

“We have had a really strong legacy in the West Country. This was a natural seat for us to come and put our scarce resources into.”

He says the party has a “great candidate” in Wakefield. But concedes he is unlikely to mount a serious challenge.

“It was a Labour seat for a long long time. We don’t have the tradition that we have down here. We’ve got a candidate and are proudly flying the flag. But, you know, you face political reality under first-past-the-post.”

GEOFF CADDICK via Getty Images

Honiton high street is lined with bunting. Union Jacks jut out from every shop, still up in celebration of the Queen’s Jubilee.

If the Conservatives do hold on to the seat, it will be hard to argue it was a result of a door-knocking charm offensive.

Opposite The Crusty Cob bakery a film crew is hunting for the prime minister, who, somewhat covertly, is in the constituency. “Boris Johnson rumoured to be in Devon,” runs the headline on the local Devon Live website.

Rishi Sunak was spotted earlier in Complete Meats, but the butcher is not terribly excited or showing signs of having been aggressively canvassed. “He’s quite short. Think he just came in for some lunch.”

Helen Hurford, the Conservative candidate, has also not exactly been a constant presence.

A former headteacher who runs a beauty academy, Hurford has not been hugging Johnson close and has been somewhat evasive about whether she would have backed the PM in the confidence vote.

Perhaps surprisingly Neil Parish, given the circumstances of his resignation, is not a pariah.

Foord, a former soldier, says many locals respect how Parish “went quickly”.

“They contrast the very dignified way in which Parish resigned straight away with Johnson,” he says.

“Neil wasn’t a wholly unpopular MP around here. At least he did the decent thing. It’s just a pity the PM doesn’t do the same.”

The Tory campaign is alive to the Lib Dem threat. “Thinking of voting Liberal Democrat?” one bright Lib Dem yellow leaflet delivered by the Conservatives to voters asks, before accusing the party of wanting to “rejoin the EU” and “actively plotting to put Labour into power”.

And as Davey observes, there are plenty of people who remain charmed by the PM.

Christie, 30, supports the PM. “I’m not a rich person. I know that a lot of people look at Tories as rich people. I live day-by-day, penny-by-penny. I think he has done quite well.

“In the way that he’s actually had Covid, had a baby and the whole process and just having to go through so much stuff.”

Wayne, 45, shares that view. “I still think that none of the others would have done what Boris has done. He’s the man who’s taken it on the chin. And he’s accepted taking it on the chin.”

The safe bet next week is that the Lib Dems will have pulled off another stunning by-election victory.

But even just as Johnson’s allies claimed seeing off a no confidence vote by one MP would count as a win, holding on in Tiverton and Honiton, despite everything, will be hailed as proof the PM retains his magic electoral touch.

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Lib Dems Spy Another By-Election Opportunity Over Tory MP’s Bankruptcy Risk

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They may only have just finished counting their by-election victory in North Shropshire, but the Liberal Democrats have already set their sights on their next Tory “Blue Wall” target seat: Windsor.

The Lib Dems began campaigning in the seat with their new candidate, Julian Tisi, this weekend amid rumblings that another by-election could be on the cards pending the outcome of bankruptcy proceedings against sitting Tory MP Adam Afriyie.

Afriyie, the MP for Windsor since 2005, is being pursued by HMRC over unpaid taxes following the collapse of his IT firm in 2007, the Guardian reported in November.

Under parliamentary rules, a sitting MP who is declared bankrupt can be forced to stand aside if a bankruptcy restrictions order is made against them — potentially triggering a by-election.

Afiyie’s spokesperson told the newspaper that negotiations were ongoing and that his advisers were working towards an agreement. Afriyie said: “I will of course pay any tax that is due.”

Tisi, who stood for the Lib Dems in the 2019 general election, is hoping to build on successes in Chesham and Amersham and most recently in the North Shropshire by-election, where the party overturned a 23,000 Conservative majority.

At the last general election, he increased the Lib Dem vote share by more than 11 per cent. The party also picked up eight council seats in Windsor and Maidenhead at last May’s local elections, which saw the tories lose 15 seats.

Opposition to Conservative planning reforms pushed by then housing secretary Robert Jenrick were largely credited with the Chesham and Amersham win, while in North Shropshire the drip feed of party scandals coming from Number 10 and the resignation of former MP Owen Paterson over paid lobbying loomed large.

In Windsor, there is similar local angst regarding a plan to build a 2,000 home “garden village” in Jealott’s Hill that Tisi believes is incompatible with climate change goals and protecting the green belt.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey told HuffPost UK that the Conservatives were “taking Windsor for granted”.

“As we saw last month in North Shropshire, people have had enough of Boris Johnson and his grossly incompetent government.

“The endless drumbeat of sleaze and scandal coming out from Downing Street is going down a stink in the Tory’s southern Blue Wall.

“Windsor is a winnable Blue Wall seat and it will clearly be a two horse race between a committed local Liberal Democrat team, and an out of touch Conservative party led by Boris Johnson.”

Meanwhile, Tisi said there was a “real sense of anger and frustration in Windsor at how the Conservatives have run the council”.

“The Conservative-led local councils have shown complete disregard for the views of local people and endlessly bulldozer through unpopular decisions.

“The Liberal Democrats are fighting for a fair deal for local people, including battling to save green spaces from unwanted development including the Windsor riverfront and Jealott’s Hill.”

A Conservative party spokesperson said: “The Conservatives are focused on delivering for people up and down the country as we build back better from the pandemic.”

HuffPost UK approached Afriyie for comment but did not receive a response.

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