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The Battle For The Donbas: Why This Is A Significant New Phase Of The Russia-Ukraine War

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A new phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday night.

“Now we can already state that the Russian troops have begun the battle for the Donbas,” he said in a video address about the long-feared, full-scale offensive to take control of Ukraine’s east.

With a “significant part of the entire Russian army” now deployed in the region, according to Zelenskyy, here’s what you need to know about what could be a turning point in the conflict.

What has happened so far?

On February 24, Russia invaded neighbouring Ukraine. Tanks and soldiers streamed across the border, scenes more reminiscent of the Second World War than the remote cyber warfare that modern conflict was supposed to be dominated by.

Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of $100 billion, Ukrainian officials have said, as the United Nations revealed the civilian death toll has now surpassed 2,000. About four million Ukrainians have fled the country.

But Russia’s swift march to victory did not materialise. Driven back by Ukrainian resistance in the north, Moscow has refocused its ground offensive in the two eastern provinces known as the Donbas, while launching long-distance strikes at other targets including the capital, Kyiv.

What does the Donbas matter?

The Donbas is Ukraine’s mostly Russian-speaking industrial heartland in the east, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces for the past eight years and have declared two independent republics that have been recognised by Russia.

In recent weeks, the Kremlin declared the capture of the Donbas its main goal of the war after its attempt to storm Kyiv failed. After withdrawing from the capital, it began regrouping and reinforcing its ground troops in the east for what could be a climactic battle.

On Monday, Ukraine military generals said Russian forces were increasing assaults in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions – both of which are part of the Donbas – as well as in the area of Zaporizhzhia.

They also said Russia was sending reinforcements to the Crimean peninsula – seized from Ukraine in 2014 – and to the Rostov-on-Don area, which borders Ukraine.

PA Graphics via PA Graphics/Press Association Images

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak called it “the second phase of the war” and assured Ukrainians that their forces could hold off the offensive. “Believe in our army, it is very strong,” he said.

The Associated Press reported a senior US defence official saying there are now 76 Russian combat units in eastern and southern Ukraine, up from 65 last week. That could translate to around 50,000 to 60,000 troops.

Russia’s stuttering campaign means control of eastern Ukraine has taken added significance, and may prompt the fiercest fighting yet. Russia needs some kind of “win” – recognising Russia’s claims in the Donbas and Crimea has also been the central plank of Vladamir Putin’s demands at failed peace talks – and following the sinking of its Black Sea lead ship, Putin will not be contemplating further embarrassment.

Wider attacks prepared the ground?

The new offensive in the east came as a Russian missile attack killed seven people in Lviv, the first civilian victims in the western city about 40 miles from Poland. It was one of a multitude of other targets across Ukraine in what appeared to be an intensified bid to grind down the country’s defences.

Lviv has seen only sporadic attacks during almost two months of war and has become a haven for civilians fleeing the fighting elsewhere.

In other developments, Ukrainian troops remained holed up at a mammoth steel mill in Mariupol, the last known pocket of resistance in the devastated southern port city.

The capture of Mariupol, where Ukraine estimates 21,000 people have been killed, is seen as key, and not just because it would deprive Ukraine of a vital port and complete a land bridge between Russia and the Crimean peninsula.

General Richard Dannatt, a former head of the British Army, told Sky News that Russia is waging a “softening-up” campaign ahead of the Donbas offensive.

The US defence official said that if Russian forces succeed in taking full control of Mariupol, that could free up nearly a dozen combat units for use elsewhere in the Donbas.

Is support from the West likely to grow?

Given the changing dynamics of the war, Ukraine is calling for an increasing supply of Western weapons.

Last week, US president Joe Biden announced an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, expanding the aid to include heavy artillery ahead of the wider Russian assault expected in eastern Ukraine.

The US military expects to start training Ukrainians on using howitzer artillery in coming days, with the training taking place outside Ukraine.

The Sun reported Boris Johnson is set to provide Ukraine with tank-mounted Stormer armoured missile launchers, another sign the West is prepared to offer as much military hardware as possible without triggering a wider Nato vs Russia conflict.

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Johnson: Putin’s Decision To Recognise Separatist Ukraine States ‘A Very Dark Sign’

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Boris Johnson has hinted Russia could face fresh sanctions as Vladimir Putin said he would recognise two breakaway republics in Ukraine.

The UK prime minister said the Russian president’s decision to acknowledge Donetsk and Luhansk’s claims to independence was a “very dark sign” that is “plainly in breach of international law”.

On Monday, the Ukraine crisis intensified as Putin used a long speech to recognise the two rebel-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine, which breaches the 2015 protocol that ended the conflict in Donbas.

The comments come amid mounting Western fears that Russia, which has massed an estimated 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, is poised to invade.

The move appears to have dashed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough which had been raised with the possibility of talks between Putin and US president Joe Biden.

Johnson said he was considering whether the actions could trigger the imposition of fresh sanctions on Russia, as foreign secretary Liz Truss said Putin’s actions could not be allowed to go “unpunished”.

At a Downing Street press conference, the PM said: “This is plainly in breach of international law, it’s a flagrant violation of the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine.

“It is a repudiation of the Minsk process and the Minsk Agreements.

“I think it’s a very ill omen and a very dark sign.”

It was “yet another indication that things are moving in the wrong direction in Ukraine”.

The prime minister had previously said sanctions would be triggered if Russia invaded Ukraine.

But he said: “Plainly what has happened is extremely bad news and we will be urgently talking to our friends and allies around the world, all of whom are jointly signed up with us in this package of sanctions.”

Johnson said it was “becoming clear that we are going to need to start applying as much pressure as we possibly can”.

“It is hard to see how this situation improves,” he acknowledged.

But he added: “I think there’s a sort of chance that (Putin) could row back from this, and we’ve got to pray that that’s the case.”

The prime minister said he would speak to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky to “offer him the support of the United Kingdom”.

Meanwhile, the foreign secretary said the recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic as independent states “demonstrates Russia’s decision to choose a path of confrontation over dialogue”.

“We will co-ordinate our response with allies,” she said.

“We will not allow Russia’s violation of its international commitments to go unpunished.”

The government has already promised a tougher sanctions regime to deal with any Russian transgression, with MPs expected to approve the new framework on Tuesday.

Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said: “This blatant breach of international law must be met with consequences from the international community.”

The European Union announced it would impose sanctions in response to Russia’s recognition of the two states.

In a joint statement, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Charles Michel said it was an “illegal act”.

Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said: “This further undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, erodes efforts towards a resolution of the conflict, and violates the Minsk Agreements, to which Russia is a party.”

Earlier defence secretary Ben Wallace has said there was still “strong cause for concern” that Putin remained committed to an invasion of Ukraine, despite diplomatic moves to end the crisis.

In a Commons statement, he said Russian forces were continuing to move towards the border zone contrary to repeated assurances given by Moscow.

There were now more than 110 battalion tactical groups massed along the border while the Black Sea fleet included two amphibious groups and nine cruise missile-equipped ships with a further four cruise missile-capable vessels in the Caspian.

At the same time, he said there had been “a proliferation of false flag operations and propaganda stunts and Russian news outlets carrying fictitious allegations”.

Downing Street said intelligence reports suggested the Russian plan “has in effect already begun” and that it was “starting to play out in real time”.

Nevertheless Johnson’s official spokesman said there was still a “window for diplomacy” after it appeared that a tentative agreement had been reached on a crisis summit between Putin and Biden.

Following a series of lengthy calls involving French president Emmanuel Macron, the White House said talks could go ahead provided there had been no invasion.

However Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said later that while the two leaders could meet if they considered it necessary, no plans for a summit had been agreed.

“It’s premature to talk about specific plans for a summit. The meeting is possible if the leaders consider it feasible,” he said.

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