Piers Morgan Banned From Russia In Latest Round Of Sanctions

Posted on 01/08/2022 by Boris Clair

TalkTV’s Piers Morgan and BBC presenter Huw Edwards are among the latest UK politicians and journalists to be banned from Russia.

The Russian foreign ministry issued a list of 39 newly sanctioned individuals it said are no longer allowed to enter the Russian Federation.

It said the action was in response to UK sanctions issued against Russian ministers, officials and members of influential families linked to the Kremlin following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian foreign ministry claimed those individuals sanctioned have contributed to “London’s hostile course aimed at the demonisation of our country and its international isolation”.

Other than Morgan and Edwards, journalists including ITV’s Robert Peston and head of Sky News, John Ryley, are also listed alongside reporters at various outlets.

Morgan, writing on Twitter, said: “It wasn’t on my immediate vacation to-do list.”

The broadcaster last week interviewed Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and first lady Olena Zelenska.

Edwards tweeted: “Huw’ve been banned! I made the Kremlin cut (39/39).”

Former prime minister David Cameron is the first name on the list, followed by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, a former Nato secretary-general, while Labour leader Keir Starmer and shadow cabinet ministers Lisa Nandy, David Lammy and Nick Thomas-Symonds also feature.

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford, Scottish government economy secretary Kate Forbes and transport minister Wendy Morton, previously in the foreign office, are also among those included.

The Russian foreign ministry said in a statement: “As has been noted more than once, the pernicious actions of the UK in planting Russophobia, spreading false information about our country and supporting the Kyiv neo-Nazi regime will receive an adequate and decisive response from the Russian side.

“The choice in favour of confrontation is a conscious decision of the British political establishment, which bears all responsibility for the consequences.”

The statement also said it will continue work to expand the list.

Earlier this year, Russia said it was taking action against 287 MPs in retaliation for sanctions against Russian politicians.

But the list included several former MPs.

Prime minister Boris Johnson said in April that MPs should regard their inclusion on the list as a “badge of honour”.

These Ukrainians Support First Lady Olena Zelenska’s Controversial Vogue Shoot – Here’s Why

Posted on 27/07/2022 by Boris Clair

Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska has been accused of “glamourising the war” on Twitter after starring in Vogue magazine’s cover shoot – but many Ukrainians don’t see it that way.

Zelenska and the president, her husband Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have been pushing Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine to the top of the international news agenda for almost six months, in a bid to secure more help from the West.

Zelenskyy has spoken in the UK’s House of Commons, at the UN and at the EU. He has been featured on TIME magazine’s front cover over his leadership skills, and was even dubbed the “modern Churchill” for his communication.

Then, fashion magazine Vogue put the couple on its cover.

While Zelenska led the shoot – and in one photo was photoshopped into a scene with Ukrainian soldiers – she also posed with her husband in his army clothes for a couple of other images.

And something about the shoot rattled some on Twitter:

However, many Ukrainians on the same platform have been keen to defend Zelenska and remind these critics what war really looks like.

In a Twitter thread, Oleksandra Povoroznyk pointed out: “Most of the English-speaking people on the internet are lucky enough to have no clue what a war actually looks like.”

Through a follow-up exchange with HuffPost UK, she added that she was “genuinely surprised that so many non-Ukrainians saw the photoshoot as something controversial”, and not a “reflection of how strong Ukrainian women actually are”.

“Most Ukrainians I’ve spoke to see the photos and the interview as an important part of what Zelenska’s doing to draw more attention to our country,” Povoroznyk explained.

“In fact, a lot of Ukrainian women are super happy that Zelenska wasn’t portrayed as some kind of dainty and shy tradwife [traditional wife] hiding behind her husband.”

She added that “a lot of Eastern European women are portrayed as very stereotypically feminine”, even though there are still female volunteers in the Ukrainian army right now.

Povoroznyk, who is based in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv according to her Twitter profile, said, “nothing about the photoshoot is ‘glamourising’ the war”.

Instead, she said it was a “pretty accurate representation of what the war feels and looks like to many Ukrainians who are lucky enough to be in cities controlled by Ukraine”.

She claimed that while it was clear those in occupied cities would face a different reality, people in cities are trying to find “some kind [of] war-life balance”.

The Ukrainian explained that plenty of people still do their best to work, to go out with friends, get their nails done, put makeup on under the “constant threat of air strikes”.

She added: “And yet we keep going, because there’s literally nothing else we can do. And sure, a photoshoot for Vogue might not seem like work for the average lurker on Twitter, but it is part of Zelenska’s duties as First Lady.

“Her job is to keep the world’s attention on Ukraine, and that’s why she ’s giving interviews and speeches and yes, even having her photos taken by huge publications like Vogue.”

She also pointed out in a subsequent tweet that Britain’s Queen – back when she was Princess Elizabeth – also took part in photoshoots during World War 2, to raise awareness of the war effort.

Lots of foreigners are baffled by this amazing digital cover shot by Annie Leibovitz for @voguemagazine and are claiming it’s “tone-deaf” or is “glamorising the war”. Now, I’d like to believe that every insensitive commentator is a bot paid directly from Putin’s piggy bank, but https://t.co/5g3siGMPpg

— Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦 (@rynkrynk) July 27, 2022

She was not the only person to defend the images either, both in and out of Ukraine.

Love how nobody questions how russians can go have fun every day and not care how their government kills ukrainians and Syrians on their money, but as soon as ukrainian takes one photo with their face/body not covered in blood the war is fake and ukrainians are hypocrites https://t.co/NkrO71F85B

— evil nettle 🇺🇦 (@_willowtears) July 27, 2022

Russia Strikes Ukrainian Port Of Odessa — Just Days After Signing Grain Deal

Posted on 24/07/2022 by Boris Clair

Russia has struck the Ukrainian port of Odessa just a day after the two countries signed a landmark deal to allow grain exports out of the war-torn country.

Two Russian cruise missiles hit the port’s infrastructure on Saturday, while Ukraine’s air defences brought down two others missiles.

Odessa’s regional governor, Maksym Marchenko, said an unspecified number of people were injured in the attack.

Russia has admitted responsibility for the strike, saying the missiles “destroyed a military infrastructure target” at the port.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Moscow’s actions and said “the invaders can no longer deceive anyone”.

And Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said: “It took less than 24 hours for Russia to launch a missile attack on Odesa’s port, breaking its promises and undermining its commitments before the UN and Turkey under the Istanbul agreement.

“In case of non-fulfilment, Russia will bear full responsibility for a global food crisis.”

The attack was also condemned in the UK, with foreign secretary Liz Truss branding it “absolutely appalling”.

“It is absolutely appalling that only a day after striking this deal, Vladimir Putin has launched a completely unwarranted attack on Odessa,” she said.

“It shows that not a word he says can be trusted.”

The strike came just hours after Moscow and Kyiv signed a deal to allow grain exports to continue through the Black Sea in a move the UN described as a “beacon of hope” for ending the global food crisis.

The war in Ukraine — which supplies much of the world with products such as wheat and corn — has halted Ukrainian sea shipments and caused grain prices to rise dramatically.

Under the deal signed on Friday, a path opened for significant volumes of commercial food to leave the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.

A key element of the deal was the agreement by both Russia and Ukraine that there would be no attacks on any of the vessels.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the attack cast serious doubt on Russia’s commitment to the deal and warned of a deepening of the global food crisis.

“Russia must stop its aggression and fully implement the grain deal to which it has agreed,” he said.

The US ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, also denounced the strike “outrageous” and accused the the Kremlin of “weaponising” food.

“Russia must be held to account.”

4 Bits Of News You May Have Missed Due To The Tory Civil War

Posted on 21/07/2022 by Boris Clair

It’s difficult to stay across all of the news at the best of times, never mind when a Tory civil war is unfolding.

Boris Johnson’s resignation and the battle for his place in No.10 has definitely dominated the news cycle for the last two weeks.

And while the appointment of the new prime minster is important, the government turmoil means other stories may have slipped under the radar.

So here are four other bits of news that you may have missed.

1. Russia makes progress in Ukraine

On Thursday, Russia targeted a densely populated area in Kharkiv, killing at least two people and injuring 21 more. It looks as though the shelling him a market, a bus stop, a gym and a residential building.

It comes after Moscow’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Russia was expanding its military objectives in Ukraine on Wednesday.

This means it is essentially looking to take control of the entire southern regions of Ukraine, and that the Russian Armed Forces are moving beyond the so-called “People’s Republics” of Donestk and Luhansk in the east.

The invasion is now in its fifth month, and continues to take much longer than Russia initially predicted. But, despite the slow start and the strong resistance from Ukrainian forces and the repelling of Russian troops from other corners of the country (including the capital Kyiv), it seems Putin is not giving up.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted in response to the expansion of the Kremlin’s military aims that “Russians want blood, not talks”, and called for more help from allies.

Lavrov has warned the West that the Kremlin will continue expanding its objectives if Nato allies continue supplying the country with long-range weapons.

2. Worker strikes continue

The summer of discontent is still rolling on, with Royal Mail workers voting to go on strike over pay on Tuesday.

More than 115,000 employees who are part of the Communication Workers Union supported the action, which – if it goes ahead – could amount to the largest walkout ever by its members.

When Royal Mail tweeted that it was “disappointed” by the strike action, the CWU replied: “Dry your eyes mate.”

Disputes over pay are affecting industries across the UK, with railway workers and airport employees pushing back against their current salaries due to the cost of living crisis.

CWU is just one of many unions to ballot for strikes recently, as inflation climbs to highest rate in 40 years.

3. Annual grocery bills climb by £454

Shoppers across the UK will soon see their annual grocery bills for the year jump up by £454 due to food and drink inflation.

Grocery price inflation increased to 9.9% in the four weeks leading up to July 10, according to retail research firm Kantar, having been at 8.3% the previous month.

Fuel costs and supply chain issues are being passed onto consumers.

Fraser McKevitt, the head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, told PA news agency that he expects the record for grocery inflation to be broken “come August”.

4. NHS not coping with Covid

While the worst of the heatwave has passed (for now), the health service is still having to grapple with Covid infections, more than two years on from the first lockdown.

Editor of the British Medical Journal, Dr Kamran Abbasi, and Health Service Journal editor, Alastair McLellan, wrote an alarming editorial on Monday, warning that the NHS might buckle under the ongoing Covid pressures.

This is down a range of factors, including periods of underfunding over the last decade, “lack of an adequate workforce plan” and “a cowardly and short-sighted failure to undertake social care reform”.

Now, it seems the government’s “living with Covid” strategy might be the final straw with yet another wave of infections washing across the UK.

Abbasi and McLellan claimed that the government is “pretending it is not happening or implying it is all under control”, and said the health service was actually “dying” from Covid.

They called for the government to “stop gaslighting the public” and be honest that the pandemic is still very much looming over the NHS.

Boris Johnson Says He Thinks Ukraine ‘Can And Should’ Host Eurovision In 2023

Posted on 18/06/2022 by Boris Clair

Boris Johnson has said Ukraine should be given the opportunity to host next year’s Eurovision Song Contest, as organisers confirmed that they were beginning discussions about holding the event in the UK.

Last month, Ukrainian entry Kalush Orchestra stormed ahead at Eurovision, with the British representative Sam Ryder finishing in a respectable second place.

Speculation soon began about whether the competition would be able to take place in Ukraine in 2022, amid the ongoing Russian invasion.

On Friday, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) said in a public statement that they had conducted a “full assessment and feasibility study” with Ukrainian state broadcaster UA:PBC.

However, it concluded that after “exploring all scenarios” with the network, they shared “their sadness and disappointment that next year’s Contest cannot be held in Ukraine”.

“As a result of this decision, in accordance with the rules and to ensure the continuity of the event, the EBU will now begin discussions with the BBC, as this year’s runner-up, to potentially host the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest in the United Kingdom,” they added.

While a No.10 spokesperson previously insisted they “welcomed” the idea of hosting Eurovision in the UK, Johnson claimed on Saturday morning that he’d like to see the event take place in Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters shortly after returning from an unannounced visit to Kyiv, Johnson explained: “I have just been to Kyiv. I won’t say it is completely jiving and buzzing and popping but it is far, far more lively. People are much more confident. People are out in the streets eating in cafes and restaurants in a way that they weren’t even few weeks ago.

“The Ukrainians won the Eurovision Song Contest. I know we had a fantastic entry, I know we came second and I’d love it to be in this country. But the fact is that they won and they deserve to have it.”

He added: “I believe that they can have it and I believe that they should have it. I believe Kyiv or any other safe Ukrainian city would be a fantastic place to have it.”

Following the EBU’s statement, a representative for the Ukrainian broadcaster claimed they’d been “denied the right” to host the contest and called for negotiations on a new location to be put on hold.

“We are disappointed with this decision of the EBU,” they said. “During this month, a large number of people in Ukraine have thrown all their efforts to fulfil the conditions for holding Eurovision in our country. Security is, of course, our first priority.

“The team of UA:PBC, state and local authorities did a thorough job and offered different options. It is a pity to see such an unappealable statement, therefore, we ask our partners to hold further negotiations.”

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said last month he wanted to see the 2023 event going ahead in Ukraine, comments which were echoed by the Kalush Orchestra.

Since debuting in the competition in 2003, Ukraine has racked up three wins, with Kyiv consequently hosting the Eurovision live final in both 2005 and 2017.

This article has been updated to include a comment from UA:PBC.

Adil Ray Sparks Firey GMB Row By Pointing Out A Pretty Major Flaw In Rwanda Policy

Posted on 16/06/2022 by Boris Clair

Good Morning Britain’s Adil Ray locked horns with a guest on Thursday morning after he pointed out an obvious inconsistency in its approach to refugees.

While presenting the ITV show, Adil was discussing the government’s failed attempts to fly asylum seekers who arrive at British shores via illegal means to Rwanda with The Times’ political sketch writer Quentin Letts.

Explaining how Ukrainians seeking refuge here were able to apply online while the process for those coming from other countries, such as war-torn Afghanistan, was more difficult, Adil said: “The Afghans do not have an online visa system.”

When Letts tried to say he wasn’t sure if there was a system available to the Afghans looking to resettle in the UK, Adil interjected: “I’m telling you there’s not.”

Looking exasperated, Letts said: “You’ve asked me on this programme, you never let me actually answer a question.

“There are procedures, there are perfectly legal procedures, for people to come in. But what the people using the boats are doing is they’re paying money to scoot around the rules.”

Migrants who arrive into the UK by crossing the Channel are at the centre of the government’s new policy.

The Home Office has repeatedly justified this controversial new approach by claiming the route is unsafe and that the human traffickers who send the asylum seekers across must be deterred.

For comparison, the government opened up several different schemes to help home Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion following intense public pressure.

But, as Adil pointed out, many people travelling to the UK across the Channel are doing so “because there are no legal routes” available for them.

“There are legal routes,” Letts said in response.

“There aren’t actually,” he persisted.

Adil and Letts continued to speak over each other, until the guest eventually said: “I give up! There’s no point.”

“It’s my job to correct you, Quentin,” the GMB presenter explained.

“It’s not actually, your job is – you ask me a question, and you don’t let me answer it.”

“That’s not the point,” Adil continued. “Do you accept that first of all, there aren’t the legal routes, there isn’t an online system like the Ukrainians have.”

“Look, people on the boats are paying money to smugglers to get round the rules.”

“Because there are no legal routes.”

Letts sighed loudly and said, “forget it,” waving his hand dismissively.

The presenter persisted: “You can’t avoid that question.”

“There’s no point talking to you,” gesturing to the other people sat on the GMB panel, Letts added: “Four of you against me, it’s just absolutely pointless.”

At which point the other presenter, Kate Garraway, chipped in: “No one’s against you! It’s about looking at the facts.”

The clash comes two days after the European Court of Human Rights ruled against the first Rwanda flight which was supposed to take refugees out of the country.

The sudden move from the European court has left some factions in the Conservative Party furious, while the government has promised it will not give up on its attempts to remove illegal immigrants to East Africa.

Ukraine Wins Eurovision As UK Finishes In Second Place

Posted on 15/05/2022 by Boris Clair

Ukraine has won the Eurovision Song Contest with folk-rap group Kalush Orchestra’s song Stefania.

The act have been the frontrunners since Putin’s invasion earlier this year, with organisers also banning Russia from competing.

Ukraine joined the contest in 2003 and its three wins make it one of the most successful of the newer competitor countries, having also triumphed in 2004 and 2016.

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The United Kingdom had led the vote for most of Saturday night’s results after Sam Ryder’s performance of Space Man came out on top of the jury vote.

However, the public overwhelmingly backed Ukraine, finishing with 631 points on the leaderboard, with the UK landing in second place with 466 points.

It was the UK’s best performance in the Song Content in more than 20 years, and proved to be a remarkable reversal of fortunes following last year’s dreaded nul points.

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After their win, Kalush Orchestra said: “Thank you for supporting Ukraine. This victory is for every Ukrainian. Slava Ukraini.”

During their performance, which combined rap and Ukrainian folklore, the group were dressed in elaborate outfits, including long multi-coloured fringed ensembles.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said: “Our courage impresses the world our music conquers Europe!

“Next year Ukraine will host Eurovision! For the third time in its history. And I believe – not for the last time.

“We will do our best to one day host the participants and guests of Eurovision in Ukrainian Mariupol. Free, peaceful, rebuilt.”

He added: “Thank you for the victory of @Kalush.official and all those who gave their votes for us!

“I am sure that our victorious chord in the battle with the enemy is just around the corner.

“Glory to Ukraine!”

UK prime minister Boris Johnson called Ukraine’s win “a clear reflection of not just your talent, but of the unwavering support for your fight for freedom”.

He also extended congratulations to the UK’s runner-up in the competition, tweeting: “Incredibly proud of @SamRyderMusic and how he brilliantly represented the UK tonight.”

The Ukrainian War Is Getting Bloodier. Is The West Doing Enough?

Posted on 23/04/2022 by Boris Clair

As the war enters its third month, it’s clear the Russian invasion has not gone entirely to plan – but that doesn’t mean victory for the Ukrainian resistance is on the horizon.

Further horrors have been unfolding in the east of Ukraine recently, particularly in the besieged city of Mariupol, suggesting Russia has no intention of giving up or going quietly.

The Ukrainian president has laid out exactly the kind of help the country needs from the west to prevent the war from spilling over into the rest of Europe. So will Nato step up, or will it continue holding back?

The war took a turn for the worse this week

Russia has focused its efforts on the east of Ukraine, while its attacks become more merciless.

Newly released satellite images suggest haunting mass graves have been dug near the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which has been under siege for more than a month. The graves could hold as many as 9,000 bodies according to the local authorities.

Around three-quarters of Mariupol’s residents have already fled, and a shocking 20,000 civilians are estimated to have been killed.

Despite all of this, Ukrainian forces allege they are still in control of the city – even as Russia declares its first substantial victory in the war.

Russian president Vladimir Putin previously told the forces in the area they had to either surrender or die but he has since called off an attack on the final stronghold, a steel mill where around 2,000 Ukrainian fighters are reportedly hiding.

Instead, he ordered such an unshakable blockade of the plant “so that a fly can’t get through”, which gave the Kremlin a chance to declare a win without significant casualities.

The city is a significant battleground in the war because it is the last hurdle in Moscow’s bid to create a land bridge between its territories in the eastern Donbas region and the Crimean Peninsula.

The Ministry of Defence has warned that Putin’s decision to blockade the steel plant “likely indicates a desire to contain Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol” so the Russian forces can be spread across the east of the country.

Meanwhile, eastern Donbas still faces intense shelling by the Russians, even as its troops “are still suffering from losses sustained earlier in the conflict”.

Detective chief superintendent Dominic Murphy from the Met War Crimes police also told PA new agency that it had received approximately 50 referrals from people with UK links about the Russian invasion.

As the war continues to escalate, he explains: “What we’re seeing is incredibly harrowing, beyond comprehension.

“In not far off 17 years in counterterrorism, (it is) some of the worst possible footage you could imagine seeing.”

He said it is possible that he has seen evidence of war crimes in these referrals, along with evidence of “other international crimes”.

So what kind of help does Ukraine want?

The main request coming from Ukraine now is for more money.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the World Bank and IMF that the country needs $7 billion (£5.4 billion) per month to supplement its losses caused by Russia.

It comes after the country has already suffered around $60 billion (£46.6 billion) in physical damage from the Russian invasion.

He explained: “We will need hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild all this later and recover from this war.”

The Ukrainian president also called for Russia to be excluded from the World Bank and IMF, saying such bodies are “definitely not the place for a country which is trying to ruin the lives of its neighbours”.

Ukraine used to want to join Nato so that its forces would help defend the country, but it has since abandoned this effort.

In mid-March, Zelenskyy said: “Ukraine is not a member of Nato. We understand that. We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It’s a truth and it must be recognised.”

Ukraine used to plead for a no-fly zone, but to the country’s disappointment, this was rejected by the west over fears it would be seen as an escalation of tensions with Russia and officially pull Nato into the war.

Instead, Zelenskyy now asks for weapons which are “comparable” with Moscow’s, including fighter jets.

The mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boychenko, has also called for more humanitarian corridors, explaining: “We need only one thing – the full evacuation of the population. About 100,000 people remain in Mariupol.”

President of the European Council Charles Michel in a shared press conference with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky this week.

So what is the west actually doing?

The UK supplied Kyiv with 4,000 anti-tank weapons and anti-tank Javelin missiles, while another batch of 6,000 firearms is on its way now.

Around £25 million in financial support was announced in March, along with body armour, helmets and combat boots.

The US and the EU have pledged to send more weapons, while France has sent £83 million worth of equipment.

Canada, Norway and even Sweden – famously neutral – have chipped in too to support Ukraine with weapons.

Since Zelenskyy’s plea, the US has promised to pass an extra $800 million (£615 million) to supply Ukraine with more equipment, ammunition and drones while. The UK is now training some Ukrainian soldiers to use armoured vehicles.

Boris Johnson said earlier this week: “They need support with more artillery, that is what we will be giving them.”

Why stop there?

The west has been extremely reluctant to interfere with the war out of fear that the war would escalate.

But, critics claim what Ukraine’s allies have offered so far is simply not enough.

Tory MP Tobias Ellwood told Radio 4′s Today programme: “The bigger question, not answered by Nato or indeed us, is what does success look like?

“We are doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing but not enough to ensure they win.

“So what does our long-term mission objective look like? Is it pushing Russia back to pre-February lines or is it liberating the entire Donbas region? That’s absolutely critical in how we choose to up-arm the Ukrainians.”

He said there was an “absence of overall strategy” on how to end the war from Nato, and warned that he believes Putin will not stop his attack unless he is stopped.

Now more than five million Ukrainian refugees have now fled from the country, primarily to the rest of Europe, there is also an argument that the west is already involved.

Russian propagandists have already claimed that “World War 3” has started and that Russia is “fighting Nato”.

The Kremlin has even warned Washington recently that continued military aid could lead to “unpredictable consequences”.

Former vice chief of staff at Nato’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), Michel Yakovleff, also called for the west to take further action this week.

Asked if the west has done enough to help Ukraine, he told French broadcaster France24: “Very bluntly, and that is my personal opinion, no, not since 2014.

“Ukraine is paying now for our desire not to escalate since 2014.”

He said that while the UK and the US’ actions now “have helped massively”, the influx of new materials has come at a time when both sides are exhausted.

“Will Ukraine have time to integrate this new equipment before utter exhaustion? I don’t know.”

He concluded that Nato, which calls itself the “most powerful alliance in history”, should not be “frightened” of Putin and “cower” in the face of the potential “consequences”.

Service members of pro-Russian troops are seen atop of an armoured vehicle in the southern port city of Mariupol.

The Battle For The Donbas: Why This Is A Significant New Phase Of The Russia-Ukraine War

Posted on 19/04/2022 by Boris Clair

A new phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday night.

“Now we can already state that the Russian troops have begun the battle for the Donbas,” he said in a video address about the long-feared, full-scale offensive to take control of Ukraine’s east.

With a “significant part of the entire Russian army” now deployed in the region, according to Zelenskyy, here’s what you need to know about what could be a turning point in the conflict.

What has happened so far?

On February 24, Russia invaded neighbouring Ukraine. Tanks and soldiers streamed across the border, scenes more reminiscent of the Second World War than the remote cyber warfare that modern conflict was supposed to be dominated by.

Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of $100 billion, Ukrainian officials have said, as the United Nations revealed the civilian death toll has now surpassed 2,000. About four million Ukrainians have fled the country.

But Russia’s swift march to victory did not materialise. Driven back by Ukrainian resistance in the north, Moscow has refocused its ground offensive in the two eastern provinces known as the Donbas, while launching long-distance strikes at other targets including the capital, Kyiv.

What does the Donbas matter?

The Donbas is Ukraine’s mostly Russian-speaking industrial heartland in the east, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces for the past eight years and have declared two independent republics that have been recognised by Russia.

In recent weeks, the Kremlin declared the capture of the Donbas its main goal of the war after its attempt to storm Kyiv failed. After withdrawing from the capital, it began regrouping and reinforcing its ground troops in the east for what could be a climactic battle.

On Monday, Ukraine military generals said Russian forces were increasing assaults in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions – both of which are part of the Donbas – as well as in the area of Zaporizhzhia.

They also said Russia was sending reinforcements to the Crimean peninsula – seized from Ukraine in 2014 – and to the Rostov-on-Don area, which borders Ukraine.

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak called it “the second phase of the war” and assured Ukrainians that their forces could hold off the offensive. “Believe in our army, it is very strong,” he said.

The Associated Press reported a senior US defence official saying there are now 76 Russian combat units in eastern and southern Ukraine, up from 65 last week. That could translate to around 50,000 to 60,000 troops.

⚡️Foreign minister: Battle of Donbas will be similar to World War II.

“This will not be a local operation based on what we see from Russia’s preparations,” Dmytro Kuleba said, adding that he expects large-scale operations involving thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 7, 2022

Russia’s stuttering campaign means control of eastern Ukraine has taken added significance, and may prompt the fiercest fighting yet. Russia needs some kind of “win” – recognising Russia’s claims in the Donbas and Crimea has also been the central plank of Vladamir Putin’s demands at failed peace talks – and following the sinking of its Black Sea lead ship, Putin will not be contemplating further embarrassment.

Wider attacks prepared the ground?

The new offensive in the east came as a Russian missile attack killed seven people in Lviv, the first civilian victims in the western city about 40 miles from Poland. It was one of a multitude of other targets across Ukraine in what appeared to be an intensified bid to grind down the country’s defences.

Lviv has seen only sporadic attacks during almost two months of war and has become a haven for civilians fleeing the fighting elsewhere.

Now President Zelensky, in a new public address, says Russia has begun the battle for the Donbas and concentrated a large part of its army there for an all-out offensive in eastern Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/Itp6VX1ROJ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 18, 2022

In other developments, Ukrainian troops remained holed up at a mammoth steel mill in Mariupol, the last known pocket of resistance in the devastated southern port city.

The capture of Mariupol, where Ukraine estimates 21,000 people have been killed, is seen as key, and not just because it would deprive Ukraine of a vital port and complete a land bridge between Russia and the Crimean peninsula.

General Richard Dannatt, a former head of the British Army, told Sky News that Russia is waging a “softening-up” campaign ahead of the Donbas offensive.

The US defence official said that if Russian forces succeed in taking full control of Mariupol, that could free up nearly a dozen combat units for use elsewhere in the Donbas.

Is support from the West likely to grow?

Given the changing dynamics of the war, Ukraine is calling for an increasing supply of Western weapons.

Last week, US president Joe Biden announced an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, expanding the aid to include heavy artillery ahead of the wider Russian assault expected in eastern Ukraine.

The US military expects to start training Ukrainians on using howitzer artillery in coming days, with the training taking place outside Ukraine.

EXC: Britain will hand Stormer armoured missile launchers to Ukraine to unleash hell on Mad Vlad Putin’s jets and choppers

Major boost to Ukrainian air defences dubbed ‘best kit yet’ sent to hero Zelensky after display on Salisbury Plain two weeks ago.https://t.co/yjFIeqWVi1 pic.twitter.com/LE4p9l9YTY

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) April 18, 2022

The Sun reported Boris Johnson is set to provide Ukraine with tank-mounted Stormer armoured missile launchers, another sign the West is prepared to offer as much military hardware as possible without triggering a wider Nato vs Russia conflict.

With Le Pen Breathing Down Macron’s Neck, Is France About To Have Its Brexit?

Posted on 08/04/2022 by Boris Clair

And just like that, everyone’s talking about France and whether it’s about to have its “Brexit/Trump moment”.

The first round of the French presidential election takes place on Sunday, and what might have been a formality only of domestic interest is suddenly generating a much bigger buzz. This is thanks to a series of polls suggesting Marine Le Pen, the far-right’s standard bearer for more than a decade, could pull off a shock win over incumbent Emmanuel Macron.

With the help of HuffPost France’s political correspondent Romain Herreros, here’s everything that you need to know about the vote to determine who runs one of Europe’s biggest economic and military powers as a war rages on the continent.

The basics: what is happening?

France’s presidential election is to be held in two rounds on April 10 and 24. Polls have for weeks consistently pointed to Macron leading the first round ahead of Le Pen, with both qualifying for a run-off. It would mean a replay of the 2017 election that Macron won comfortably (66% to 34%). But this time around it’s set to be much closer. According to some polls, Le Pen has narrowed the gap enough for victory to be within the margin of error.

There are 12 official candidates. Outside Macron and Le Pen, the names to note in an election where radical positions set the tone are far right-writer-turned-candidate Éric Zemmour and veteran left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon. While it’s unlikely either will make the final cut, the second choice of their voters could be crucial in a narrow run-off.

A Le Pen win would send shockwaves around the world, not least given the West’s united front against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Having someone who has shown pro-Vladamir Putin sympathies deal with the fallout would be less than ideal. And make no mistake of France’s importance: Brexit compounded its status as the European Union’s main military power and, with Angela Merkel’s exit as German chancellor, Macron has taken a more prominent role in Europe.

Marine Le Pen and the image overhaul

The 53-year-old leader of the National Rally, a movement long known for anti-Semitism, Nazi nostalgia and anti-immigrant bigotry, is running for the third time. The “Le Pen” name is notorious in France thanks to her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the firebrand leader of what the same party when it was the National Front.

Since her 2017 defeat, Le Pen has worked to soften her image – stressing her love of cats among other things – and changed the party name. She has strived to appear as a potential leader rather than a radical anti-system opponent. Her campaign has focused on cost of living concerns – amid a huge increase in energy prices and growing inflation – and the candidacy of Zemmour, who is even further to the right than Le Pen, has also helped her appear more palatable to voters.

Herreros says many felt another far-right candidate would split their vote, undermining Le Pen’s chance. “But, in fact, Zemmour was very hard, very radical. So Le Pen looked more soft. People are less afraid of her compared to Zemmour. When we look at the polls, we see that.”

Below, poll aggregator showing how Macron’s lead over Le Pen has narrowed in recent days. See here for latest update.

That explains in part why the context is not quite 2016. “The last election was just one year after Brexit and Trump’s election, so we were in a populist moment,” Herreros says of Macron’s 2017 ascent to power. “Now we have seen that Brexit was not what the British people expected, and we saw (Brazil’s populist president) Bolsonaro is a nightmare in Brazil. But Le Pen is not playing the populist role – she says she doesn’t want to leave the euro this time, that she’s not that extreme like Zimmour. ‘Trust me, I’m not evil’.”

But, make no mistake, the core of her party’s programme has not changed. “She is still far-right,” Herreros explains. “She is proposing the same thing on immigration as Zemmour, but with different words. It’s just a different package.”

She would end a number of welfare benefits for foreigners, stop family reunification, give preference to the French for jobs and social housing, ban the hijab in public spaces and kick unemployed foreigners out of France.

Éric Zemmour, not quite the French Trump

The early obsession among the chattering classes was the rise of Zemmour and his fledgling Reconquest! party. A TV pundit who styles himself as a Donald Trump figure and guardian of Old France, he has proposed a Ministry of “Remigration” equipped with airplanes to expedite the expulsions of what he says are undesirable migrants.

Zemmour pushes the white nationalist conspiracy theory known as the “great replacement”, which argues France and Western nations are being overrun by immigrants and other people of colour — notably Muslims.

Reflecting Le Pen’s superficial changes, a batch of her officials and supporters have left for Zemmour. The only one Le Pen spared criticism was her niece, Marion Marechal, a former politician who has returned to the frontline to help Zemmour.

Perhaps what worries most is the two far-right candidates together are drawing more support than the centrist president. In a scenario where Le Pen inherits around 80% of Zemmour’s votes in the second round – a not unreasonable prospect, say analysts – it puts her “close to victory”, says Herreros.

Macron and gone?

For Macron, Le Pen is the candidate to beat, and his camp has worried openly about an “accidental” win for Le Pen – perhaps if moderate voters fail to turn up at the polls.

The 44-year-old former investment banker, elected in 2017 with little political experience with his centrist La Republique en Marche, saw his pristine reputation dented by The Yellow Vest protests and imposing coronavirus restrictions.

His election campaign has been disrupted by the war in Ukraine, with Macron delaying his pitch to the country because of France’s central role in the West’s response. While absence from the campaign trail has its own problems, wartime leadership has allowed him to be presented dealing with the big issues facing the world (see the unusual pictures of him working nights and weekends at the Elysee palace, looking tired and unshaven, in jeans and a hoodie). It may have helped with an initial poll boost, but that appears to have waned.

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are set to meet in the run-off for the second consecutive presidential election.

Herreros explains Macron is popular for this stage of his presidency – higher than predecessors François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy – but he has come unstuck by two factors. “He went too late in the campaign,” says Herreros. “It was difficult for him to say ‘hey, I’m the candidate’ when Putin was invading Ukraine. If he went in January or February, it would have been easier for him. He left the space for the far-right.”

He also bound himself to Le Pen, thinking France would never actually put her in power. “He always thought he would be automatically re-elected against Marine Le Pen. During his presidency he would ‘wink, wink’ to right-wing voters, some of his ministers talked in a way that could be used by Le Pen. Now people are saying you played with fire, now we have the result of what you have done.”

So what will happen?

The neck-and-neck polling doesn’t tell the whole story, say Herreros. A low turnout could kill off all the pre-election anticipation as Le Pen is relying heavily on the working class vote to come out in support. Le Pen’s party is still stinging from her party’s failure in last summer’s regional balloting, blamed on a turnout of only 33% of voters in the first round.

There may also be a moment of clarity. “In France, when the far-right are close to power, people wake up,” says Herreros. “And they lose every time.”

In 2015, Le Pen, who had appeared to be on the cusp of winning the northern region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, lost out in the second round, and her aforementioned niece, thought to be one of the party’s best hopes in the regional elections, also lost in the southern Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur.

“They lost,” says Herreros. “But who knows how the voters will react? Le Pen will say, ‘Macron is the system, vote for me. You’re from the left and don’t like Macron, vote for me’. It’s the same thing we saw with Brexit. Maybe people will think … let’s try it.”

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