Putin Using Spy Balloons Over Ukraine, Says British Intelligence

Vladimir Putin is likely to be responsible for balloons spotted over Kyiv, British intelligence has said.

Last week Russia again pummelled Ukraine with a barrage of cruise and other missiles, hitting targets from east to west.

In its latest intelligence update on Sunday, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) said: “On 15 February 2023 Ukrainian armed forces spotted several balloons with radar reflectors suspended beneath them over Kyiv.

“Ukrainian officials reported that they shot down at least six of these. Earlier, on 12 February 2023, Ukraine’s Air Force reported sighting balloons over eastern Dnipropetrovsk.

“It is likely that the balloons were Russian. They likely represent a new tactic by Russia to gain information about Ukrainian air defence systems and compel the Ukrainians to expend valuable stocks of surface to air missiles and ammunition.

“On 14 February 2023, sighting of a ‘balloon shaped’ object led to the closure of Moldovan airspace for several hours.

The MoD added: “There is a realistic possibility that this was a Russian balloon that had drifted from Ukrainian airspace.”

Britain’s assessment matches that made earlier by Ukraine, which said Russian troops had launched balloons with corner reflectors to deceive air defences.

It came as Rishi Sunak told world leaders they must arm Ukraine now and set about boosting its long-term future against further Russian aggression.

The prime minister, in a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, had a two-fold message for the West.

He said that Ukraine needed military backing by allies to counter any spring offensive by Putin’s troops.

But he argued the West must also start to put in place the foundations to strengthen Kyiv’s security in the long term.

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Putin’s Invasion Has Led To 200,000 Russian Casualties And A High Death Toll, UK Says

Russian forces have “likely” suffered up to 200,000 casualties since the war in Ukraine began a year ago, according to the latest UK intelligence.

While Moscow is expected to launch a renewed offensive on its European neighbour next week – in a symbolic act to honour the 12 months since the invasion – the UK’s ministry of defence has shone a bleak light on the human cost of the war.

According to the MoD, there have been between 175,000 and 200,000 Russian casualties in the last year, including between 40,000 and 60,000 deaths.

UK intelligence pointed to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s attempts to bolster up his forces six months ago, by introducing “partial mobilisation”.

It said: “The Russian casualty rate has significantly increased since September 2022, when ‘partial mobilisation’ was imposed.”

This was meant to introduce an extra 300,000 reservists to fight in his war.

At the time, it sparked widespread protests in Russia with more than 1,000 people detained, with many others trying to flee the country.

The MoD also warned at the time that this hastily mobilised group would have a “high attrition rate”.

Now, as it discusses the expected death rate among Russian ranks, the MoD claimed: “By modern standards these figures represent a high ratio of personnel killed compared to those wounded.

“This is almost certainly due to extremely rudimentary medical provision across much of the force.

“Artillery has almost certainly inflicted the majority of Russia’s casualties.”

The MoD also suggested there was a high death rate among the Wagner paramilitary group, which is a private Russian military company made up of mercenaries.

“Wagner PMC forces have deployed large number of convict-recruits,” the MoD said. “These have probably experienced a casualty rate of up to 50%.”

Casualty counts are exceptionally difficult to calculate during conflicts, and the numbers around the Russian injured or dead have varied throughout the war.

But, the Ukrainian defence ministry has similar estimates to the UK’s MoD.

It suggests that around 140,460 personnel have been “eliminated” along with an extra 690 unidentified individuals.

According to Ukraine, Russian soldiers are dying at their fastest rate since the first week of war, with 824 troops dying per day just in February.

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Russia Preventing Migrant Workers Leaving The Country So They Can Be Enlisted, UK Claims

Migrant workers are being prevented from leaving Russia so they can be enlisted in the army according to British officials.

The Ministry of Defence suggested the move was part of efforts by Moscow to ensure there is a “high number of personnel” available to be enlisted.

In their latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine – which reaches its first anniversary next month – the MoD also said the Kremlin policy of “partial mobilisation” remains in place.

That was set up last September and saw 300,000 reservists called up to the Russian army.

According to the MoD, media reported on January 22 that migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan with dual passports were prevented from leaving Russia because “their names were on mobilisation lists”.

“Separately, on January 23, 2023, Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the decree on ‘partial mobilisation’ continues to remain in force, claiming the decree remained necessary for supporting the work of the armed forces,” the MoD update said.

“Observers had questioned why the measure had not been formally rescinded.

“The Russian leadership highly likely continues to search for ways to meet the high number of personnel required to resource any future major offensive in Ukraine, while minimising domestic dissent.”

It was revealed over the weekend that mandatory military training will be introduced in Russian secondary schools from September.

Two weeks ago it also emerged that Russia could increase the age limit for army conscripts in an attempt to boost the size of its military.

The current age limit for routine military conscription in Russia is 27.

But Andrey Kartapolov, the head of the Russian State Duma Defence Committee, proposed increasing that to 30.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has claimed Vladimir Putin threatened to kill him last year as he made a last-ditch attempt to prevent the invasion of Ukraine.

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Russia Preparing To Send Sub-Standard Tanks Into Battle, Claims UK

Russia is preparing to send sub-standard tanks into battle in Ukraine, UK officials believe.

A “small number” of T-14 Armata main battle tanks are set to be used in the war for the first time, according to the latest intelligence update from the Ministry of Defence.

But the MoD added: “In recent months, deployed Russian forces were reluctant to accept the first tranche of T-14 allocated to them because the vehicles were in such poor condition.

“It is unclear exactly what aspects of the vehicles prompted this reaction, but within the last three years, Russian officials have publicly described problems with the T-14’s engine and thermal imaging systems.”

In 2021, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu described the planned production run of the tanks for 2022 as an “experimental-industrial” batch.

The MoD update added: “Therefore, it is unlikely that any deployed T-14 tanks will have met the usual standards for new equipment to be deemed operational.”

The update came as it emerged that Ukraine’s pleas for tanks from its Western allies appear to have finally have been heard – with Germany and the US reportedly poised to deliver the vehicles to the under siege country.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has eventually decided to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, it has been reported, and allow other countries such as Poland to dispatch their German-made artillery too.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is expected to approve sending M1 Abrams tanks to help Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The UK has already announced that it will send Challenger 2 tanks to help Ukraine’s war effort against Russia.

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Russia’s ‘Clamp Down’ On ‘Non-Standard Haircuts’ Among Troops Triggers Backlash, UK Claims

The new commander of the Russian army in Ukraine has faced pushback over his attempt to clamp down on “non-standard haircuts” among his troops, the UK has claimed.

General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff and the newly appointed commander in Ukraine, has reportedly started off his new job by trying to “improve deployed troops’ day-to-day discipline”.

In its daily update, the UK’s ministry of defence (MoD) alleged that Gerasimov was looking to target “non-regulation uniform, travel in civilian vehicles, the use of mobile phones, and non-standard haircuts”.

However, the MoD claimed: “The measures have been met with sceptical feedback.”

The UK officials suggested that “some of the greatest derision has been reserved for attempts to improve the standard of troops’ shaving”.

It continued: “Officials in the Donetsk People’s Republic described the prioritisation of a ‘farce’ that would ‘hamper the process of destroying the enemy’.”

The Donetsk People’s Republic has been controlled by Russian separatists since 2014, but it was one of four Ukrainian regions to be illegally annexed by Vladimir Putin back in September.

A proxy private military company, the Wagner group, perceived as an informal arm of the Russian state, also pushed back against the new rules.

The MoD claimed Wagner owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, lashed out at the official advice from the Kremlin, saying: “War is the time of the active and courageous, and not of the clean-shaven.”

The UK officials also pointed out: “The Russian force continues to endure operational deadlock and heavy casualties; Gerasimov’s prioritisation of largely minor regulations is likely to confirm the fears of his many sceptics in Russia.

“Along with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, he is increasingly seen as out of touch and focused on presentation over substance.”

This is just the latest sign that all is not well within the Russian army ranks.

Reports of low morale, poorly equipped soldiers and a distinct lack of training for the newly recruited troops from Putin’s partial mobilisation in the autumn have been circulating for months.

According to previous claims from the MoD, Russia is even using “poorly-training convicts” to bolster its armed forces.

And by February 24, the war – which the Kremlin expected to last just a matter of days – will have stretched out to a year, with just 15% of Ukrainian land under Russian control.

The appointment of Gerasimov to lead the campaign in Ukraine was seen as a sign that Russia was trying a new tactic to turn the war in its favour.

He replaced General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed General Armageddon for his brutal strategies, who will now serve as Gerasmiov’s deputy.

Russia's army Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov
Russia’s army Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov

SERGEY FADEICHEV via Getty Images

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Putin’s Decision To Dump Army Chief Shows Russia Is Failing In Ukraine, Says UK

Vladimir Putin has replaced the army chief in charge of Russian troops in Ukraine because his invasion of the country is failing, according to UK intelligence.

Chief of the general staff (CGS) Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian military, has taken over from General Sergei Surovikin, who will now be one of his three deputies.

In their latest intelligence update on the war, the Ministry of Defence said: “This is a significant development in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s approach to managing the war.

“The deployment of the CGS as theatre commander is an indicator of the increasing seriousness of the situation Russia is facing, and a clear acknowledgement that the campaign is falling short of Russia’s strategic goals.”

The MoD also said the surprise move “is likely to be greeted with extreme displeasure by much of the Russian ultra-nationalist and military blogger community, who have increasingly blamed Gerasimov for the poor execution of the war”.

They said that in contrast, Surovikin “has been widely praised by this community for his championing of a more realistic approach”.

The changes are further evidence of Russia’s struggles in Ukraine.

Earlier this week, Kyiv denied Russia’s claim that it had killed more than 600 Ukrainian troops in a deadly attack.

Russia claimed that this was its “retaliatory strike” for the New Year’s Day attack, which Moscow says killed 89 of its own soldiers while they were in a Russian base.

It came after Vladimir Putin suggested a 36-hour ceasefire last week, so Russian citizens could mark the Orthodox Christmas, although shelling began very soon after.

Ukraine’s military intelligence has also alleged that Russia is looking to mobilise as many as 500,000 conscripts in mid-January, on top of the 300,000 brought into the army back in October.

Russia has denied any plans for a second wave of mobilisation – it’s worth noting that the September call-up sparked protests across the country.

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8 Heartbreaking Photos Summing Up Christmas For Ukrainian Kids This Year

After almost 10 months of war, the impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine’s children is truly devastating.

The UN believes around 400 children have been killed and more than 700 have been left with life-changing injuries since Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine.

And, as the war is ongoing – making it harder to gauge the full impact of the atrocities in Ukraine – agencies believe the real figures are much higher.

It is also the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War 2, with almost eight million people from Ukraine fleeing to other European countries, with a further 6.5 million internally displaced.

Three Ukrainian photographers – Anastasia Vlasova, Alina Smutko, and Nina Sologubenko – have captured how children are coping this Christmas for Save The Children.

According to one mother, Oksana*, her eight-year-old daughter’s hair has started to turn grey from the stress.

“Look at my elder daughter, she is only eight and she has grey hair. I do not tell her, but when I braid her hair, I burst into tears, because she is a little child and they saw such things,” she told the photographers.

“It was very scary sitting in the basement, knowing that if – God forbid – the house was hit, you would be buried. You worried about yourself at that point, you’re scared for your children.”

Twelve-year-old Karina* also told the photographers: “There’s going to be something lacking. You know, the atmosphere of Ukrainian Christmas.”

A lot of children are also apart from their fathers, many of whom have been conscripted to serve in the Ukrainian military.

Masha*, nine, said: “I would like my dad to come here or at least to talk to him over the phone. He said everything I draw may come true.

“So I drew for us to be together, for us to be at the seaside next summer…And when I was drawing him, I felt happy.”

Olha*, mother of seven, told Save The Children: “This year the mood isn’t festive. We just wish the war would be over, to live peacefully.

“We don’t want anything, no Christmas, no New Year. How can we celebrate? People are dying.”

She said that at night they “fear every rustle”.

Here are just seven images which provide a snapshot into the lives of Ukrainian children under attack from Russia right now.

15-year-old Dmytro* was one of several children interviewed for Save The Children.

Save The Children

15-year-old Dmytro* was one of several children interviewed for Save The Children.
Dmytro* lives with his mother and six younger siblings in northern Ukraine, near the border with Russia and Belarus.

Save The Children

Dmytro* lives with his mother and six younger siblings in northern Ukraine, near the border with Russia and Belarus.
A view of *Dmytro's house that burned down, near Chernihiv, Ukraine.

Save The Children

A view of *Dmytro’s house that burned down, near Chernihiv, Ukraine.
Three photographers have shared a harrowing insight into life in Ukraine right now.

Save The Children

Three photographers have shared a harrowing insight into life in Ukraine right now.
Dmytro*'s brother Taras*, four, sits by the wall behind the heating stove at home near Chernihiv, Ukraine.

Save The Children

Dmytro*’s brother Taras*, four, sits by the wall behind the heating stove at home near Chernihiv, Ukraine.
Elena*, 36, sits for a portrait with her two-year-old daughter Vira* in their flat in Suceava county, northern Romania

Save The Children

Elena*, 36, sits for a portrait with her two-year-old daughter Vira* in their flat in Suceava county, northern Romania
Vira*, two, sits in her kitchen for a portrait in Suceava county, northern Romania

Save The Children

Vira*, two, sits in her kitchen for a portrait in Suceava county, northern Romania
Elena*, 36, hugs her daughter Vira*, two, in the bathroom at their home Suceava county, northern Romania

Save The Children

Elena*, 36, hugs her daughter Vira*, two, in the bathroom at their home Suceava county, northern Romania

The difficulties Ukrainian children are facing during this tumultuous period has not gone unnoticed in Kyiv.

The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy shared a video address on the first day of the new school year back in September. He said: “They stole part of your childhood, part of your youth…

“But you are free. You always will be. So be worthy of your will – and of our Ukraine.”

*Names have been changed to protect their identity.

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Boris Johnson Causes A Stir With Claims About Europe’s Initial Response To Russian Aggression

Boris Johnson has taken aim at some of his former European counterparts over Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, claiming not everyone on the continent had the same immediate reaction.

The former PM, who has tried to make his support for Ukraine one of the lasting legacies of his premiership, went a step further in a new broadcast interview with CNN Portugal.

Speaking on Monday, he said Germany, France and Italy all had very different responses compared to him when Russia was closing in on its European neighbour at the end of February.

“This thing was a huge shock,” Johnson alleged on Wednesday. “We could see the Russian battalion tactical groups amassing, but different countries had very different perspectives.”

He began: “The German view was at one stage that if it were going to happen, which would be a disaster then it would be better for the whole thing to be over quickly, and for Ukraine to fold.”

Germany had a substantial dependency on Russia’s fuel exports prior to the war, due to the Nord Stream pipelines which transmitted natural gas from Russia int Europe. However, it has been trying to wean itself off ever since the war started.

Johnson then claimed there were “all sorts of sound economic reasons” behind that way of thinking, but added: “I couldn’t support that, I thought that was a disastrous way of looking at it.

“But I can understand why they thought and felt as they did.”

An aide of Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz has since rebuffed these claims, claiming that Johnson has “his own relationship with the truth”, and said the idea Germany wanted a quick end to the war was “utter nonsense”.

Scholz’s spokesman Steffen Hebestreit also told reporters in Berlin: “I think I can say that first-hand, because I took part in talks with the then British prime minister in Munich only a few days before the start of the war. Namely that he always has a very personal approach toward the truth.”

Germany’s economic cooperation secretary Jochen Flasbarth also tweeted that Johnson’s claims were “crazy”.

The former prime minister also targeted France in his interview, claiming the UK’s neighbour was “in denial” over the possibility of a war on the fringes of Europe.

He claimed: “Be in no doubt that the French were in denial right up until the last moment.”

French president Emmanuel Macron led Europe’s attempts to prevent Vladimir Putin’s aggression tipping into war earlier this year, and even went to Kremlin just weeks shortly before Russia ordered the attack.

Then Johnson went after Italy. He told CNN that the Italian government, then led by Mario Draghi, was “at one stage simply saying that they would be unable to support the position we were taking” due to their “massive” reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.

However, Johnson said that once the actual invasion began, a sense of unity emerged.

“What happened was everybody – Germans, French, Italians, everybody, Joe Biden – saw that there was simply no option.

“Because you couldn’t negotiate with this guy (Putin). That’s the key point.”

He added in unusual praise for the bloc that the EU “has done brilliantly” opposing Putin.

“After all my anxieties…I pay tribute to the way the EU has acted. They have been united. The sanctions were tough.”

Interestingly, the prominent Eurosceptic who led the Vote Leave campaign said that if Ukraine wants to join the EU “they should go for it and I think it would be a good thing for Ukraine”.

Kyiv applied to join the EU earlier this year as part of its efforts to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence.

Ukraine has been vocal in its admiration for Johnson – and even tweeted out a suggestion that he return to Downing Street again after Liz Truss’s resignation, but it was quickly deleted.

New prime minister Rishi Sunak made his first official visit to the country last week, and pledged £50 million in defence aid.

Despite the ongoing support from Western allies for Ukraine, Russia has continued its relentless attacks on the nation, leaving entire regions without power as the winter looms.

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What Happens If Russian Missiles Crossed Into Nato Member Poland?

Reports that Russian missiles have crossed into Nato member Poland, killing two people, have prompted alarm over the possibility of the war in Ukraine escalating into a much wider conflict.

A violent act on a Nato member – which Ukraine is not, but neighbouring Poland is – could trigger Article 5 of the military alliance’s charter. This “one-for-all and all-for-one” principle of collective defence means an attack on one is seen as an attack on all, and all members are expected to respond to assist their ally.

What makes this especially worrying is triggering the article would increase tensions between the US and Russia, the world’s two biggest nuclear powers.

But, with details of the incident yet to be confirmed, the prospects of a World War Three-like scenario very much depends on whether it was a deliberate act or an error.

What is Nato and Article 5?

The military alliance goes by the acronym of Nato.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was formed in 1949 to prevent a resurgence of nationalism and militarism in Europe after two world wars, and to deter the Soviet Union’s expansion.

Its membership has swelled to 30 member nations, and over the 1990s and 2000s its enlargement stretched further east to include the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Poland joined in 1999.

Since the start of the Ukraine war, Sweden and Finland, which shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border with Russia, have sought membership, marking a radical break in the policy of both north east European countries given their staunch military neutrality.

Members agree to mutual defence – military action – in response to an enemy attack. The principle goes: “An attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies.” This is Article 5 of the Nato constitution.

Nato member countries in Europe.
Nato member countries in Europe.

PA Graphics via PA Graphics/Press Association Images

Because Ukraine is not a member of Nato, Western support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fallen short of putting their troops on the ground. US president Joe Biden has made clear his concern about further escalating tensions with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s admission to Nato has been a stated goal going back to its constitution in 2002. And while Zelenskyy has announced Ukraine is formally applying for fast-track membership, it seems unlikely Nato will accept his application while a war is raging.

Nato invoked Article 5 for the first and only time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the US.

What has happened in Poland?

Since the war began eight months ago, there have been fears clashes with neighbouring countries such as Poland would up the ante dramatically.

On Tuesday, two people were killed in an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. The Associated Press cited a senior US intelligence official as saying the blast was due to Russian missiles crossing into Poland.

The Polish Foreign Ministry late on Tuesday said that a Russian-made missile fell in eastern Poland and killed two people.

The ministry said foreign minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations”.

Biden, in his call with Polish president Andrzej Duda, “offered full US support for and assistance with Poland’s investigation” and “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Nato”.

Biden also spoke to Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, who was among those to hold a call with Duda.

The Russian defence ministry denied being behind “any strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border” and said in a statement that photos of purported damage “have nothing to do” with Russian weapons.

So will it mean all-out war?

Experts seem to think the gravity of the situation depends on whether it was a deliberate attack – either to escalate the war or to test the West’s response – or an accidental misfire. In any case, it is up to Poland to decide the next steps.

Poland could instead invoke Article 4 – consultation with fellow Nato members if they fear their territorial integrity has been breached. This would likely give Poland more clout within the alliance and encourage the West to offer more military support to both Poland and Ukraine – support that falls short of attacking Russia.

Fabrice Pothier, former director of policy planning for Nato, told Sky News: “It’s too early to say if this was an intended attack, an intended strike on a Nato territory, or whether it was the misfiring of a missile or a rocket.

“However, even if that were the case, I think there is enough grounds for triggering what is just below Article 5, which is Article 4, which is Poland asking all Nato members to come to the Nato headquarters to consult each other to assess the threat and to take concrete action.

“This can be defensive, not going after Russia, but augmenting Poland’s air defence and obviously also augmenting Ukraine’s air defence, because Ukraine is the de facto first line of defence of the alliance.”

In October, British defence secretary Ben Wallace explained that the government is “deliberately ambiguous” about scenarios under Article 5 being triggered.

He said: “Article 5 is very clear, an attack on one is an attack on all, that is solid and in concrete and will be stood by.

“Article 5 doesn’t necessarily mean all-out war, people sometimes think it means the whole thing, but nevertheless there would be a response to an attack on Nato.”

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Hey Duggee’s Got A Super Catchy ‘Welcome Song’ For Ukrainian Refugees

Ah-woof! Or should we say, ah-welcome! Duggee and The Squirrels have taught the nation’s children many valuable lessons over the years. But their latest episode, which drops on November 2, is perhaps their most important yet.

In news that will delight kids everywhere (and parents who have watched all four seasons back-to-back, multiple times), the award-winning BBC CBeebies series has launched a brand new episode welcoming new characters from Ukraine.

The Squirrels are joined by new faces, as well as Ukrainian-known characters Mavka and Swampy, who Ukrainian children will recognise from animated feature film Mavka. The Forest Song.

To welcome their new friends, Betty, Norrie, Roly, Tag and Happy sing an incredibly catchy ‘Welcome Song’ complete with translations of Ukrainian phrases and words.

And yes, you will be whistling this song for the rest of the day.

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The ‘Welcome Badge’ episode sees Duggee and The Squirrels waiting for some new friends to arrive. The show’s narrator, Alexander Armstrong, explains they come from a country called Ukraine.

The new arrivals speak a different language from Duggee and his friends, so to help them settle in, Duggee, The Squirrels and Hummingbirds burst into song.

‘The Welcome Song’ is complete with translations of Ukrainian phrases to help the new arrivals feel at home – and to give children here some phrases to use for a nice big welcome.

There’s also lots of waving, something everyone understands. And, of course, a big old Duggee hug.

The show’s producers say the aim of the episode is to improve the real experiences of Ukrainian children coming to the UK, in the hope they feel even more welcome.

It’s also educating British kids to learn their language and encourage them to be warm and kind.

The usual cast are joined by children from the UK, as well as those who have recently arrived from Ukraine, who all sing the words of the song in their native language.

All episodes of Hey Duggee are available on BBC iPlayer in the UK.

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