Vladimir Putin’s Days May Be ‘Numbered In A Handful’, Says Former British Army Chief

Vladimir Putin’s days as Russian president may be “numbered in a handful” after the mercenary Wagner Group launched an apparent coup attempt, according to the former head of the British army.

Lord Dannatt, the former chief of the general staff, said Ukraine could use the chaos engulfing the Putin regime to “really change the battlefield situation” in the war.

He spoke as Wagner troops continued their advance towards Moscow and the Russian president accused them of “treason”.

The dramatic developments came after months of tension between Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin – his former ally – came to a head on Friday night.

Prigozhin accused Moscow of killing 2,000 of his men and warned that those responsible would be “punished”.

In a televised address on Russian TV this morning, Putin accused the Wagner Group of “a stab in the back” after they had initially fought alongside his troops in Ukraine.

He said: “Russia will defend itself and repel this move. We are fighting for the life and security of our citizens.”

Speaking on Times Radio, Lord Dannatt said: “Now, if they [Ukrainian forces] have found by now, one or two weak spots, this could well be the moment where there is huge confusion within Russia, huge confusion amongst the Russian military commander control for the Ukrainians to launch their … manoeuvre brigade groups into a potential breakthrough situation, and really change the battlefield situation in Ukraine”

He added: “If that were to happen, allied with what Prigozhin is doing, then Putin’s days are numbered in a handful, and probably even less.”

Rishi Sunak called for all sides to “be responsible and to protect civilians”.

He spoke after foreign secretary James Cleverly chaired a meeting of the government’s emergency COBRA committee.

In their daily intelligence update on the war, the UK Ministry of Defence said the long-running tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian military had “escalated into outright military confrontation”.

They said: “Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out.

“This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.”

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‘Paranoid’ Russian Officials Are Cracking Down On Public Displays Of Yellow And Blue Items, UK Says

Some “paranoid” Russian security officials are interpreting wartime legislation to mean that public displays of blue and yellow are outlawed.

People have been arrested for wearing colours similar to the Ukrainian flag – in the belief that they are showing support for the invaded country, the Ministry of Defence [MoD] said.

They cited reports of a care home worker arrested for wearing a blue and yellow jacket to work and a 22-year-old man displaying the blue and yellow flag of Russia’s own Aerospace Forces.

Children look at burned cars at the site where Russia's intercepted drone debris fell, on May 31, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Children look at burned cars at the site where Russia’s intercepted drone debris fell, on May 31, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Roman Pilipey via Getty Images

British officials say the clampdown shows a “paranoid Russian officialdom” in an “increasingly totalitarian” system.

“Some local Russian security officials are likely interpreting Russia’s draconian wartime legislation to mean that public display of blue and yellow items is outlawed because it might evidence discreet support for Ukraine,” the MoD said.

“On 09 May 2023, a care home worker was reportedly arrested after wearing a blue and yellow jacket to work.

“In recent days, Russian National Guard troops arrested a 22 year old man in Volkhov near St Petersburg for displaying which was eventually determined to be the blue and yellow flag of Russia’s own Aerospace Forces.

“The clampdown highlights uncertainty within a paranoid Russian officialdom of what is and is [not] deemed permissible within an increasingly totalitarian system.

“Criticism of the arrests has come from an unexpected quarter: the ultra-nationalist, pro-war Liberal Democratic party. The party’s own branding features yellow on a blue background.”

It comes as Ukraine is set to launch its long-awaited counteroffensive to recapture Russian-occupied territory.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Wall Street Journal: “We strongly believe that we will succeed.

“I don’t know how long it will take. To be honest, it can go a variety of ways, completely different. But we are going to do it, and we are ready.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

SERGEI SUPINSKY via Getty Images

Kyiv hopes a counteroffensive to reclaim territory will change the dynamics of the war that has raged since Russia invaded its neighbour 15 months ago.

Zelenskyy said last month Ukraine needed to wait for more Western armoured vehicles arrived before launching the counteroffensive.

He has been on a diplomatic push to maintain Western support, seeking more military aid and weapons, which is key for Ukraine to succeed in its plans.

Russia holds Ukrainian territory in the east, south and southeast.

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Russia Launches Crackdown On Draft Dodgers As It Prepares For ‘Lengthy’ War In Ukraine, UK Says

Russia is making it harder for its citizens to avoid being called up to the army as it prepares for a “lengthy conflict” in Ukraine, according to UK officials.

A new law has been passed to establish “a unified registry of individuals eligible for military service”, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said.

In their latest intelligence update on the war, the MoD said: “The key implication of the measure is that in future, the authorities will be able to serve call-up papers electronically, rather than by letter, removing one obstacle which has previously allowed some to dodge the draft.

“With individuals’ call-up data now digitally linked to other state-provided online services, it is likely that the authorities will punish draft-dodgers by automatically limiting employment rights and restricting foreign travel.”

The MoD said the new measures are “highly likely part of a longer-term approach to provide personnel as Russia anticipates a lengthy conflict in Ukraine”.

Earlier this week, the MoD said Russia may inadvertently expose the real extent of its losses in Ukraine by honouring those who fell in World War 2 next month.

Some regions bordering Ukraine, and the occupied peninsula of Crimea, have reportedly called off events marking Victory Day on May 6 off due to security concerns.

However, the traditional parades are still going to take place further inland, posing a “sensitive communications challenge for the Kremlin”.

Vladimir Putin has positioned the war in Ukraine “in the spirit of the Soviet experience in World War 2″.

The MoD said: “The message risks sitting increasingly uneasily with the many Russians who have immediate insights into the mismanaged and failing campaign in Ukraine.

“Honouring the fallen of previous generations could easily blur into exposing the scope of the recent losses, which the Kremlin attempts to cover up.”

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Boss Of Wagner Mercenary Group Launches Fresh Attack On Moscow

The head of the mercenary Wagner Group has suggested that Russia is setting them up for failure in Ukraine.

Yevgeny Prigozhin said ammunition promised to his troops – some of whom were recruited directly from prison to join the war – has not arrived.

He said that was affecting the Wagner Group’s ability to help Russia hold on to the key city of Bakhmut.

His comments come just weeks after he accused Russian military chiefs of “treason”.

Prigozhin said that orders were signed on February 22 for the group, which is fighting alongside Russian forces, to be sent fresh ammunition the following day. However, most of it never arrived.

In a video uploaded at the weekend, Prigozhin said the lack of ammunition could be “ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal”.

According to the BBC, he said: “If we step back, we will go down in history as the people who took the main step to lose the war.

“And this is precisely the problem with the [ammunition shortage]. This is not my opinion, but that of ordinary fighters.

“What if they [the Russian authorities] want to set us up, saying that we are scoundrels – and that’s why they are not giving us ammunition, not giving us weapons, and not letting us replenish our personnel, including [recruiting] prisoners?”

He went on to insist that without his group, Russia’s war in Ukraine would be a failure.

“If Wagner PMC [private military company] were to now retreat from Bakhmut, then the entire front – which PMC Wagner today is cementing – would crumble,” he said.

Who are the Wagner Group?

The Wagner private military company (also known as Wagner PMC) really took off in 2014.

It was the same year that Russia had seized the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine started to push back against Kyiv.

Headed up and financed by Prigozhin, the covert group of mercenaries began showing up to support the Russian troops in unmarked green uniforms.

At the time, Wagner was so unknown they were nicknamed “little green men”.

Since then, it has grown exponentially, taking on thousands of soldiers who can come straight from elite backgrounds or prison.

Private military contractors are forbidden in Russia, so the whole group works outside of the country’s law.

That means this is a covert group of significant military force and political influence which – according to Vox – makes money by serving Moscow, and exploiting natural commodities in target countries.

Even Prigozhin denied any link to the group until September 2022 when he admitted he founded it.

Prigozhin is also an associate of Vladimir Putin, and was previously nicknamed “Putin’s chef” because of his expanse of catering companies which catered to the Kremlin.

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Russia Forced To Use 60-Year-Old Tanks In Ukraine Due To Heavy Losses, Says UK

Russia is being forced to use 60-year-old tanks because of the heavy losses it has sustained in the Ukraine war.

According to the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD), the “vintage” T-62 vehicles have been brought out of storage and re-purposed so they can be sent into battle.

Armoured personnel carriers dating back to 1954 have also been deployed by Russia, the MoD said in its latest intelligence update.

It emerged yesterday that Russian reservists are being sent to war armed with shovels.

“The Russian military has continued to respond to heavy armoured vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks (MBT),” the MoD said.

“There is a realistic possibility that even units of the 1st Guards Tank Army, supposedly Russia’s premier tank force, will be re-equipped with T-62s to make up for previous losses.”

The update went on: “In recent days, Russian BTR-50 armoured personnel carriers, first fielded in 1954, have also been identified deployed in Ukraine for the first time.

“Since summer 2022, approximately 800 T-62s have been taken from storage and some have received upgraded sighting systems which will highly likely improve their effectiveness at night.

“However, both these vintage vehicle types will present many vulnerabilities on the modern battlefield, including the absence of modern explosive reactive armour.”

In their update yesterday, the MoD said Russian mobilised reservists were “ordered to assault a Ukrainian concrete strong point armed with only ‘firearms and shovels’”.

One reservist described being “neither physically nor psychologically” prepared for the brutality of arm-to-arm combat.

The MoD said the shovels were likely MPL-50 “entrenching tools being employed for hand-to-hand combat”.

“Little changed since it was designed in 1869, its continued use as a weapon highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting which has come to characterise much of the war,” the intelligence update said.

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Putin’s Invasion Has Led To 200,000 Russian Casualties And A High Death Toll, UK Says

Russian forces have “likely” suffered up to 200,000 casualties since the war in Ukraine began a year ago, according to the latest UK intelligence.

While Moscow is expected to launch a renewed offensive on its European neighbour next week – in a symbolic act to honour the 12 months since the invasion – the UK’s ministry of defence has shone a bleak light on the human cost of the war.

According to the MoD, there have been between 175,000 and 200,000 Russian casualties in the last year, including between 40,000 and 60,000 deaths.

UK intelligence pointed to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s attempts to bolster up his forces six months ago, by introducing “partial mobilisation”.

It said: “The Russian casualty rate has significantly increased since September 2022, when ‘partial mobilisation’ was imposed.”

This was meant to introduce an extra 300,000 reservists to fight in his war.

At the time, it sparked widespread protests in Russia with more than 1,000 people detained, with many others trying to flee the country.

The MoD also warned at the time that this hastily mobilised group would have a “high attrition rate”.

Now, as it discusses the expected death rate among Russian ranks, the MoD claimed: “By modern standards these figures represent a high ratio of personnel killed compared to those wounded.

“This is almost certainly due to extremely rudimentary medical provision across much of the force.

“Artillery has almost certainly inflicted the majority of Russia’s casualties.”

The MoD also suggested there was a high death rate among the Wagner paramilitary group, which is a private Russian military company made up of mercenaries.

“Wagner PMC forces have deployed large number of convict-recruits,” the MoD said. “These have probably experienced a casualty rate of up to 50%.”

Casualty counts are exceptionally difficult to calculate during conflicts, and the numbers around the Russian injured or dead have varied throughout the war.

But, the Ukrainian defence ministry has similar estimates to the UK’s MoD.

It suggests that around 140,460 personnel have been “eliminated” along with an extra 690 unidentified individuals.

According to Ukraine, Russian soldiers are dying at their fastest rate since the first week of war, with 824 troops dying per day just in February.

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Russia Preventing Migrant Workers Leaving The Country So They Can Be Enlisted, UK Claims

Migrant workers are being prevented from leaving Russia so they can be enlisted in the army according to British officials.

The Ministry of Defence suggested the move was part of efforts by Moscow to ensure there is a “high number of personnel” available to be enlisted.

In their latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine – which reaches its first anniversary next month – the MoD also said the Kremlin policy of “partial mobilisation” remains in place.

That was set up last September and saw 300,000 reservists called up to the Russian army.

According to the MoD, media reported on January 22 that migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan with dual passports were prevented from leaving Russia because “their names were on mobilisation lists”.

“Separately, on January 23, 2023, Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the decree on ‘partial mobilisation’ continues to remain in force, claiming the decree remained necessary for supporting the work of the armed forces,” the MoD update said.

“Observers had questioned why the measure had not been formally rescinded.

“The Russian leadership highly likely continues to search for ways to meet the high number of personnel required to resource any future major offensive in Ukraine, while minimising domestic dissent.”

It was revealed over the weekend that mandatory military training will be introduced in Russian secondary schools from September.

Two weeks ago it also emerged that Russia could increase the age limit for army conscripts in an attempt to boost the size of its military.

The current age limit for routine military conscription in Russia is 27.

But Andrey Kartapolov, the head of the Russian State Duma Defence Committee, proposed increasing that to 30.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has claimed Vladimir Putin threatened to kill him last year as he made a last-ditch attempt to prevent the invasion of Ukraine.

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Russia Preparing To Send Sub-Standard Tanks Into Battle, Claims UK

Russia is preparing to send sub-standard tanks into battle in Ukraine, UK officials believe.

A “small number” of T-14 Armata main battle tanks are set to be used in the war for the first time, according to the latest intelligence update from the Ministry of Defence.

But the MoD added: “In recent months, deployed Russian forces were reluctant to accept the first tranche of T-14 allocated to them because the vehicles were in such poor condition.

“It is unclear exactly what aspects of the vehicles prompted this reaction, but within the last three years, Russian officials have publicly described problems with the T-14’s engine and thermal imaging systems.”

In 2021, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu described the planned production run of the tanks for 2022 as an “experimental-industrial” batch.

The MoD update added: “Therefore, it is unlikely that any deployed T-14 tanks will have met the usual standards for new equipment to be deemed operational.”

The update came as it emerged that Ukraine’s pleas for tanks from its Western allies appear to have finally have been heard – with Germany and the US reportedly poised to deliver the vehicles to the under siege country.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has eventually decided to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, it has been reported, and allow other countries such as Poland to dispatch their German-made artillery too.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is expected to approve sending M1 Abrams tanks to help Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The UK has already announced that it will send Challenger 2 tanks to help Ukraine’s war effort against Russia.

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Russia’s ‘Clamp Down’ On ‘Non-Standard Haircuts’ Among Troops Triggers Backlash, UK Claims

The new commander of the Russian army in Ukraine has faced pushback over his attempt to clamp down on “non-standard haircuts” among his troops, the UK has claimed.

General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff and the newly appointed commander in Ukraine, has reportedly started off his new job by trying to “improve deployed troops’ day-to-day discipline”.

In its daily update, the UK’s ministry of defence (MoD) alleged that Gerasimov was looking to target “non-regulation uniform, travel in civilian vehicles, the use of mobile phones, and non-standard haircuts”.

However, the MoD claimed: “The measures have been met with sceptical feedback.”

The UK officials suggested that “some of the greatest derision has been reserved for attempts to improve the standard of troops’ shaving”.

It continued: “Officials in the Donetsk People’s Republic described the prioritisation of a ‘farce’ that would ‘hamper the process of destroying the enemy’.”

The Donetsk People’s Republic has been controlled by Russian separatists since 2014, but it was one of four Ukrainian regions to be illegally annexed by Vladimir Putin back in September.

A proxy private military company, the Wagner group, perceived as an informal arm of the Russian state, also pushed back against the new rules.

The MoD claimed Wagner owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, lashed out at the official advice from the Kremlin, saying: “War is the time of the active and courageous, and not of the clean-shaven.”

The UK officials also pointed out: “The Russian force continues to endure operational deadlock and heavy casualties; Gerasimov’s prioritisation of largely minor regulations is likely to confirm the fears of his many sceptics in Russia.

“Along with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, he is increasingly seen as out of touch and focused on presentation over substance.”

This is just the latest sign that all is not well within the Russian army ranks.

Reports of low morale, poorly equipped soldiers and a distinct lack of training for the newly recruited troops from Putin’s partial mobilisation in the autumn have been circulating for months.

According to previous claims from the MoD, Russia is even using “poorly-training convicts” to bolster its armed forces.

And by February 24, the war – which the Kremlin expected to last just a matter of days – will have stretched out to a year, with just 15% of Ukrainian land under Russian control.

The appointment of Gerasimov to lead the campaign in Ukraine was seen as a sign that Russia was trying a new tactic to turn the war in its favour.

He replaced General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed General Armageddon for his brutal strategies, who will now serve as Gerasmiov’s deputy.

Russia's army Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov
Russia’s army Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov

SERGEY FADEICHEV via Getty Images

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Putin’s Decision To Dump Army Chief Shows Russia Is Failing In Ukraine, Says UK

Vladimir Putin has replaced the army chief in charge of Russian troops in Ukraine because his invasion of the country is failing, according to UK intelligence.

Chief of the general staff (CGS) Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian military, has taken over from General Sergei Surovikin, who will now be one of his three deputies.

In their latest intelligence update on the war, the Ministry of Defence said: “This is a significant development in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s approach to managing the war.

“The deployment of the CGS as theatre commander is an indicator of the increasing seriousness of the situation Russia is facing, and a clear acknowledgement that the campaign is falling short of Russia’s strategic goals.”

The MoD also said the surprise move “is likely to be greeted with extreme displeasure by much of the Russian ultra-nationalist and military blogger community, who have increasingly blamed Gerasimov for the poor execution of the war”.

They said that in contrast, Surovikin “has been widely praised by this community for his championing of a more realistic approach”.

The changes are further evidence of Russia’s struggles in Ukraine.

Earlier this week, Kyiv denied Russia’s claim that it had killed more than 600 Ukrainian troops in a deadly attack.

Russia claimed that this was its “retaliatory strike” for the New Year’s Day attack, which Moscow says killed 89 of its own soldiers while they were in a Russian base.

It came after Vladimir Putin suggested a 36-hour ceasefire last week, so Russian citizens could mark the Orthodox Christmas, although shelling began very soon after.

Ukraine’s military intelligence has also alleged that Russia is looking to mobilise as many as 500,000 conscripts in mid-January, on top of the 300,000 brought into the army back in October.

Russia has denied any plans for a second wave of mobilisation – it’s worth noting that the September call-up sparked protests across the country.

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