‘He Just Can’t Do Politics’: Tory Commentator Wants Sunak Out Before Election

A leading Tory commentator has said Rishi Sunak should not lead the Conservative Party into the general election in the latest bodyblow to the prime minister.

Tim Montgomerie, founder of ConservativeHome, told the BBC’s Daily Politics show that the party was in “freefall” amid the Labour Party’s double-digit poll lead.

It comes amid speculation unsettled Tory MPs are lining up Penny Mordaunt as a replacement for Sunak if he faced a no confidence vote before the general election. On Tuesday night, a Telegraph report suggested Tom Tugendhat is also being discussed as a “unity candidate” to replace the PM.

Montgomerie cited Robert Jenrick’s resignation as immigration minister, when he said Sunak wanted to enact a Rwanda policy “that would be enough to look like he was doing something but wouldn’t actually do something to actually solve the problem”.

“That, I’m afraid, is why I’ve reluctantly taken the decision … I think Rishi Sunak has to go as prime minister before the before the general election, because he just can’t do politics.

“I think he’s a good man, a family man, a decent man in public life for the right reasons.

“I study politics incredibly closely. I don’t really know what he wants to be prime minister for, what his ambition is, what legislation he wants to pass.”

He added: “If we have any chance at the next election of minimising the scale of defeat, we need to go into the election with an agenda for the future of this country. At the moment, I don’t even know what that is.”

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt hinted the prime minister could go to the country in October, but Tory plotters may seek to oust him before then if the party’s fortunes do not improve.

Sunak will face prime minister’s Questions and then a behind-closed-doors appearance in front of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee on Wednesday.

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MPs Reverse Lords Amendments To Rwanda Deportation Bill

MPs have reversed all 10 amendments to Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda legislation – setting up a showdown with the House of Lords over the controversial plan to send asylum seekers on a one-way trip to the east African country.

Using its comfortable Commons majority, the Tory government unpicked changes made to the Safety of Rwanda Bill by the Lords.

Peers inserted a series of amendments designed to water down the legislation, but all 10 were removed by MPs during votes in the Commons on Monday night.

The bill, which aims to overcome the Supreme Court’s block on deportation flights, will return to the Lords on Wednesday as part of the game of parliamentary “ping-pong”.

The government is almost certain to prevail because the unelected Lords can’t overrule elected MPs, and the bill could be passed into law within days.

The prime minister hopes that the first deportation flights will take off in the spring.

Britain and Rwanda signed a deal almost two years ago that would see migrants who cross the English Channel in small boats sent to the East African country, where they would remain permanently. So far, no migrant has been sent to Rwanda under the agreement.

The plan is key to Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” bringing unauthorised migrants to the UK. He argues that deporting asylum seekers will deter people from making risky journeys and break the business model of people-smuggling gangs.

Just under 30,000 people arrived in Britain in small boats in 2023.

“We need to make it clear that if you come here illegally, you won’t be able to stay and we will be able to remove you. That is the only way to properly solve the issue of illegal migration,” Sunak told reporters on Monday.

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Rwanda Scheme Will End Up Costing Taxpayers Billions Of Pounds, Claims Think Tank

The government’s Rwanda scheme will end up costing taxpayers billions of pounds, according to a leading think-tank.

A new report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) says the UK will have to pay up to £230,000 for every asylum seeker deported to the east African country.

That is around five times as much as it currently costs to house an asylum seeker in the UK.

In total, the IPPR estimates that the Rwanda policy will cost the government between £1.1 and £3.9 billion to deport the 20,000 asylum seekers who have entered the UK via so-called “irregular routes” since last year.

The findings come as MPs prepare to once again debate Rishi Sunak’s flagship Safety of Rwanda Bill.

The prime minister hopes that the first deportation flights will take off in the spring – although transport secretary Mark Harper yesterday refused to guarantee that any deportations will happen before the election.

Marley Morris, the IPPR’s associate director for migration, trade and communities, said: “Aside from the ethical, legal and practical objections, the Rwanda scheme is exceptionally poor value for money.

“For it to break even, it will need to show a strong deterrent effect, for which there is no compelling evidence.

“Under the government’s plans, billions could be sent to Rwanda to remove people who have already arrived irregularly since the Illegal Migration Act was passed.

The only winner from this scheme appears to be the Rwandan government itself, which has already secured hundreds of millions without doing much at all.”

As part of the Rwanda deal agreed by home secretary James Cleverly in December, the UK has to pay £370m up front to the Rwandan government, followed by a further £120m once 300 people are sent there.

The UK also has to pay £20,000 for each person deported, plus up to £150,874 per asylum seeker to cover the costs of asylum processing and integration.

For each person who leaves Rwanda, the UK is also expected to pay an extra £10,000 to facilitate their departure.

According to the IPPR, the total cost of sending one asylum seeker to Rwanda could be as much as £228,000.

But a Home Office spokesperson said: “The report makes a number of assumptions and modelling calculations that we do not recognise.

“Without innovative solutions, the cost of housing asylum seekers could reach up to £11 billion per year by 2026.

“Illegal migration costs lives and perpetuates human trafficking, and it is therefore right that we fund solutions to break this unsustainable cycle.

“The best way of saving taxpayer money is by deterring people from coming here illegally in the first place, and our partnership with Rwanda intends to do just that.”

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A Video Of Penny Mordaunt Endorsing Liz Truss Has Left People Questioning Her Judgement

A video has re-emerged of Penny Mordaunt backing Liz Truss amid mounting speculation she could be the next prime minister.

The clip, which has been watched more than half a million times in the last 24 hours, shows Mordaunt praising Truss’s “bold economic plan”.

She also claims Truss “embodies the vision and values the British public”.

The video was filmed during the first Tory leadership contest of 2022, after Mordaunt had left the race.

In a speech to Tory members, she says: “Who can lead? Who can build that team and deliver for pour country? Who does have that bold economic plan that our nation needs?

“Who’s got reach, who can relate to people, who understands that people need help with the cost of living now? And who is going to rightly clobber our opponents?

“Who is going to hold seats and win back councils, and who most embodies the vision and values the British public had in their heads and their hearts when they voted in 2016 and 2019?

“At the start of this final phase of the contest I didn’t know the answer to those questions, but I’ve seen enough to know who the person that I’m going to put my faith in is. And that is Liz Truss.”

Truss went on to last just 49 days in No.10 after her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget triggered an economic crisis.

Tory rebels are reportedly planning to oust Rishi Sunak and replace him with with Mordaunt as the opinion polls continue to suggest the party is heading for catastrophe at the general election.

But the video of Mordaunt endorsing Truss has led social media users to question her suitability to lead the country.

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Sunak’s Titanic Problem: Tory MPs Engage Panic Mode As Party Heads For The Iceberg

It’s not often that a one-word post on X can sum up the mood of an entire parliamentary party, but it happened this week.

Within minutes of prime minister’s questions ending on Wednesday, former cabinet minister Simon Clarke took to the platform formerly known as Twitter and simply said: “Iceberg.”

That was a reference to an interview he gave to the BBC in January when he warned that the Conservatives were heading for disaster under Rishi Sunak.

“No one likes the guy who’s shouting ‘iceberg’,” Clarke said. “But I suspect that people will be even less happy if we hit the iceberg. And we are on course to do that.”

If anything, things have got worse for the Tories in the intervening two months, with the past seven days encapsulating the miserable situation in which the prime minister finds himself.

On Monday, the worst kept secret in Westminster was confirmed when Lee Anderson – until January a Tory deputy chairman, no less – announced that he was defecting to Reform UK.

That led to another round of Conservative blood-letting, with one Tory insider telling HuffPost UK that Sunak had “literally given Anderson” to the right-wing party by suspending him over his attack on Sadiq Khan.

Even worse was to follow, with Downing Street providing a textbook example of how not to handle a political crisis in their response to revelations that the Tories’ biggest donor, Frank Hester, had said Diane Abbott made him “want to hate all black women” and “should be shot”.

Ministers were initially sent out to defend Hester – who has given the party £15 million in the last year – and instruct the country to simply “move on”.

But as the political pressure grew – and after Kemi Badenoch had broken ranks – No.10 bowed to the inevitable and announced that the PM did indeed believe that the remarks were “racist and wrong”.

In an attempt to regain control of the political narrative, Sunak finally put an end to the feverish speculation by finally announcing on Thursday night that the general election will not be held on May 2.

There are few Conservative MPs, however, who do not believe that this will just be a stay of execution for their party, which continued to languish 20 points behind Labour in the opinion polls.

“The death march has begun,” one former cabinet minister told HuffPost UK.

The next political flashpoint for the prime minister comes in less than seven weeks, when local elections take place in England and Wales.

No one expects them to be anything other than catastrophic for the Tories, who face losing around half of the council seats they currently hold.

One senior Conservative MP said Sunak was “certain” to face a leadership challenge in the aftermath, with no guarantee that he will survive.

“Kemi, Penny, Grant, Shapps, Jenrick and presumably others are all on manoeuvres, either to take over now or after the election,” he said.

“The death march has begun.”

A former minister said he believed enough letters will be submitted to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of backbench Tories, to trigger a vote of confidence in his leadership.

“This feels like the week where it’s started to fall apart completely,” he said.

“But that’s good because it’s been needed to to get people to do something – there is no outcome other than total disaster if we don’t change course.

“The day after the local elections, Rishi will have to explain to people how we can still win a general election five months later, and I don’t think he can.

“The letters of no confidence are already going in, and we only need 52 to trigger a vote. There are then two scenarios; either the PM decides not to contest it and goes gracefully, or he does contest it and he performs very badly.”

Some MPs believe that, if the 1922 Committee is amenable, the party’s rulebook could be changed to allow a leadership election to be wrapped up quickly, with Tory members voting online and a new PM in place by June.

“You would then need to proceed to a general election very quickly, either in July or September,” said one backbencher.

Some Tories mutter darkly about the party being reduced to just 100 MPs after the next election unless drastic action is taken.

And while they don’t seriously believe a new leader can win the election, they think he or she could at least save enough seats to make the Tories competitive again when the next one comes along.

One MP said: “We all love the Conservative Party and it could just die. It really is that serious because if we go down to the sort of numbers we are talking about, we could be eclipsed completely by another party on the right.

“It really is decision time, and it feels like there are enough people now to make it happen.”

Adding to the dark mood in the Conservative parliamentary party is the fact that the Budget, in which Jeremy Hunt slashed another 2p off National Insurance, has failed to give the party any opinion poll bounce at all.

One ex-minister said: “I was in the chamber for it and it was so lacklustre. How could the chancellor expect to win over the country when he couldn’t even win over his own MPs?”

Next week will see Sunak’s flagship Rwanda bill return to the Commons, and Downing Street hope that getting that onto the statute book will finally lead to deportation flights taking off to the east African country and a much-needed political win for the embattled PM.

But with the mood among the PM’s parliamentary colleagues so gloomy, and the opinion polls refusing to shift, it seems highly unlikely to be enough to save Sunak’s political career.

Whether it’s at the hands of his MPs or the voters, his time at the helm of the government is coming to an end.

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‘Running Scared’: Rishi Sunak Mocked After He Rules Out General Election On May 2

Rishi Sunak has been accused of “running scared” after he finally ruled out a genera election on May 2.

The prime minister told ITV West Country that voters across the UK will not have to go to the polls “on that day”.

It brings to an end months of speculation and means the election is almost certain to take place in the autumn.

Senior Labour figures, and many Tories, wanted the general election to coincide with the local council polls in England and Wales on May 2.

But Sunak said: “In seven weeks’ time we have local elections, including in Gloucester where I was talking to them today. We have police and crime commissioner elections, we have mayoral elections.

“I’m squarely focused on those because they’re important and there’s not going to be a general election on that day.”

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said: “It looks like we have confirmation of Sunak running scared of an election in May.

“He knows that voters will not put up with this Conservative government’s failures on the NHS and the cost of living crisis any longer.

“That is why lifelong Conservative voters have switched to the Liberal Democrats in their droves and will vote for a hardworking local champion, rather than another Conservative MP who will take them for granted once again.”

Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator, said: “After 14 years of Tory failure, the British public have the right to expect an election to be called by 26 March and held on May 2.

“Until the day to call it has passed, we are prepared for the election to take place on the usual day in the election cycle.

“Rishi Sunak should stop squatting in Downing Street and give the country what it desperately needs – a chance for change with a Labour government. The rime minister needs to finally come clean with the public and name the date of the election now.”

Sunak’s announcement means the election is likely to take place in either October or November, although he could go all the way to January next year.

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Rishi Sunak Has Finally Said Frank Hester’s Comments About Diane Abbott Were ‘Racist’

Rishi Sunak has finally said Frank Hester’s alleged comments about Diane Abbott were “racist”.

The move came hours after business secretary Kemi Badenoch broke ranks to do so and followed a day of confusion in Downing Street.

In a statement issued this evening, a No.10 spokesman said: “The comments allegedly made by Frank Hester were racist and wrong.

“He has now rightly apologised for the offence caused and where remorse is shown it should be accepted.

“The prime minister is clear there is no place for racism in public life and as the first British-Asian prime minister leading one of the most ethnically diverse Cabinets in our history, the UK is living proof of that fact.”

The Guardian reported yesterday that Hester said in 2019 that said Abbott made him “want to hate all black women” and that she “should be shot”.

That led to calls for the Tories to hand back the £10 million he gave to the party last year.

However, senior government figures were initially sent out by Downing Street to defend Hester this morning.

Energy minister Graham Stuart said he made his comments “half a decade ago”, while work and pensions secretary Stride said “we need to move on”.

At two separate Downing Street briefings for journalists today, the PM’s spokespeople also repeatedly refused to say Hester’s remarks were racist.

But pressure was piled on Sunak when business secretary Kemi Badenoch posted on X: “Hester’s 2019 comments, as reported, were racist.

“I welcome his apology. Abbott and I disagree on a lot. But the idea of linking criticism of her, to being a black woman is appalling. It’s never acceptable to conflate someone’s views with the colour of their skin.”

Hester, who runs health tech firm TPP, allegedly made the remarks at a staff meeting.

Talking about a female executive at another firm, he reportedly said: “It’s like trying not to be racist but you see Diane Abbott on the TV, and you’re just like I hate, you just want to hate all black women because she’s there, and I don’t hate all black women at all, but I think she should be shot.

″[The executive] and Diane Abbott need to be shot.”

TPP said Hester “accepts that he was rude about Diane Abbott in a private meeting several years ago but his criticism had nothing to do with her gender nor colour of skin”.

In his first public comments on the row, Hester said “racism … is a poison that has no place in public life”.

He added: “The UK benefits immensely from the rich diversity of people – like my parents – who had roots in another land, religion and culture.

“We should celebrate those differences which have made us the world’s most successful multi-ethnic, multi-faith democracy. And we should have the confidence to discuss our differences openly and even playfully without seeking to cause offence.”

In a statement, Diane Abbott said: “It is frightening. I live in Hackney and do not drive, so I find myself, at weekends, popping on a bus or even walking places more than most MPs.

“I am a single woman and that makes me vulnerable anyway. But to hear someone talking like this is worrying.”

“The fact that two MPs have been murdered in recent years makes talk like this all the more alarming.”

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Kemi Badenoch Breaks Ranks To Say Frank Hester’s Comments About Diane Abbott Were ‘Racist’

Kemi Badenoch has said Tory donor Frank Hester’s alleged comments about Diane Abbott were “racist” as pressure mounted on Rishi Sunak to do the same.

The Guardian reported that Hester said in 2019 that said Abbott made him “want to hate all black women” and that she “should be shot”.

That led to calls for the Tories to hand back the £10 million he gave to the party last year.

A spokesman for TPP, the tech firm Hester runs, said he “accepts that he was rude about Diane Abbott in a private meeting several years ago but his criticism had nothing to do with her gender nor colour of skin”.

Downing Street repeatedly refused today to call the remarks “racist”, insisting instead that they were “unacceptable”.

A spokeswoman for the prime minister, who spent the day working in No.10, told reporters: “What is alleged and reported to have been said would clearly have been unacceptable, but we are not going to characterise further alleged comments from source reporting.”

But Badenoch broke ranks with the PM to make her views clear on X (formerly Twitter).

She said: “Hester’s 2019 comments, as reported, were racist.

“I welcome his apology. Abbott and I disagree on a lot. But the idea of linking criticism of her, to being a black woman is appalling. It’s never acceptable to conflate someone’s views with the colour of their skin.

“MPs have a difficult job balancing multiple interests -often under threats of intimidation as we saw recently in parliament.

“Some people make flippant comments without thinking of this context. This is why there needs to be space for forgiveness where there is contrition.”

Meanwhile, health minister Maria Caulfield told the BBC: “I condemn these comments – I personally do find them racist- it’s not something we should be kind of excusing in any way.”

The comments were at odds with fellow ministers Graham Stuart and Mel Stride, both of whom sought to play down the row earlier today.

Stuart, the energy minister, said Hester made his comments “half a decade ago”, while work and pensions secretary Stride said “we need to move on”.

In his first public comments on the row, Hester said “racism … is a poison that has no place in public life”.

He added: “The UK benefits immensely from the rich diversity of people – like my parents – who had roots in another land, religion and culture.

“We should celebrate those differences which have made us the world’s most successful multi-ethnic, multi-faith democracy. And we should have the confidence to discuss our differences openly and even playfully without seeking to cause offence.”

In a statement, Diane Abbott said: “It is frightening. I live in Hackney and do not drive, so I find myself, at weekends, popping on a bus or even walking places more than most MPs.

“I am a single woman and that makes me vulnerable anyway. But to hear someone talking like this is worrying.”

“The fact that two MPs have been murdered in recent years makes talk like this all the more alarming.”

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Why Labour – And Quite A Few Tories – Still Believe The General Election Will Be On May 2

There is a popular GIF currently doing the rounds in Labour WhatsApp groups.

It shows Justin Timberlake miming for the camera in the video for the NSYNC song It’s Gonna Be Me.

The commonly misheard lyric, however, has been changed to ‘It’s Gonna Be May’ to indicate when they think the general election will be. Yes, that’s what passes for humour in the Westminster village.

Despite all of the apparent evidence that it won’t be, senior Labour figures firmly believe the country will be asked to go to the polls on May 2, coinciding with the local council elections being held on the same day.

With the party miles ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls, it’s easy to see why they want Rishi Sunak to get on with it.

But a surprising number of Tories also think that the PM should name the date for a little over seven weeks’ time.

The doctored Justin Timberlake lyric has become a popular gif in Labour circles.
The doctored Justin Timberlake lyric has become a popular gif in Labour circles.

If he does plump for May 2, the prime minister is going to have to get a move on and announce it.

Parliament would need to be dissolved by midnight on March 26, but time would be needed before then to deal with any outstanding legislation – a process known in the jargon as “wash up”.

One theory doing the rounds is that Sunak will wait until his flagship Safety of Rwanda Bill is passed by the MPs before firing the starting gun on the campaign.

“We’ve been working on the basis he’ll get the lectern out in Downing Street at lunchtime on Saturday, March 23, by which time the Rwanda Bill will be done and so there won’t be much else to wash up,” one senior Labour figure told HuffPost UK.

One Tory MP said he believed the PM would name the date even earlier.

“I’m convinced it’ll be on May 2,” he said. “My guess would be he does prime minister’s questions on the 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

Rumours abound that ministerial diaries have been cleared for April to leave them free to campaign, while the Tory whip – which tells the party’s MPs about upcoming Commons business – only goes up to the 19th of that month.

A Conservative proponent of a May poll told HuffPost UK: “I think we’ve got a few favourable winds at our back right now and Labour are in a bit of a mess, so May is a better option than October.

“It comes down to two questions: do you want the Conservatives or Labour to run the country, and who do you think has the best plan for the future.

The truth of the matter is you’ve seen another tax cut in the Budget, while Labour are coming forward with more spending plans that will mean more taxes.

“We’ll also have got the Rwanda bill through, so that is where our strategic advantage lies – despite what the polls say.”

It is difficult to ignore the polls, however. Ipsos put support for the Conservatives at just 20% last week, while another poll yesterday had the Tories on 18%.

There are some Tories who think things could get even worse as the year goes on.

A former minister said: “The local elections in May will be really bad and cause lots of internal trouble for Rishi, so the way to avoid that is by having a general election on the same day.”

A Tory aide added: “He definitely has to go in May. It will only get worse the longer it limps on.”

Rishi Sunak has a big decision to make.
Rishi Sunak has a big decision to make.

WPA Pool via Getty Images

While Sunak has said his “working assumption” is that the election will take place towards the end of the year, he has also been careful not to rule out a May election, demonstrating that it is still in the mix as a possible date.

Given their healthy poll lead, Labour are understandably keen to get on with it.

“Staff in party HQ are being told every day that May is still alive,” said one Labour insider. “If the Tories don’t go for it, what is the point of them? It’ll just look like they’re sitting there waiting for something to turn up, rather than actually running the country.”

A Labour shadow cabinet member said: “We’ll also have another summer of small boat crossings, which would be a terrible election backdrop given Sunak promised to stop them.

“I just think he will conclude its better politically to go now rather than wait till the autumn.”

One leading pollster warned that going to the country now would be an act of “self-immolation” for the Tories, and that the PM might as well wait until the autumn in the hope that the political outlook is a bit brighter.

But the truth is that Sunak has now entered the zone where there are no good options.

Ripping the plaster off and going for May may be marginally preferable to the slow, lingering political death of an October or November poll.

Either way, a thumping Conservative defeat seems all-but inevitable.

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Fresh Blow For Rishi Sunak As House Of Lords Inflicts 5 More Defeats On Rwanda Bill

The House of Lords has inflicted another five defeats on the government’s Rwanda bill.

It means peers have defied Rishi Sunak to amend his flagship legislation 10 times this week.

The government will call on MPs to vote to overturn the amendments when the Safety of Rwanda Bill returns to the House of Commons later this month.

The five defeats tonight included moves to prevent modern slavery victims being deported to Africa against their will, and restoring the ability of the courts to decide whether Rwanda is a safe country.

On Monday night, the Lords voted to ensure the legislation is fully compliant with domestic and international law.

Dick Newby, the Lib Dem leader in the Lords, said: “Time after time, this Bill has been proved to be deeply flawed, yet this Conservative Government continues to promote a policy that frankly is unworkable.

“We are calling for Sunak and Cleverly to seriously consider the changes this House has called for. It is far too dangerous to ignore these amendments because lives are at stake.

“The Government should now accept that the policy is fatally flawed and will do little to solve the sky high asylum backlog.”

The Safety of Rwanda Bill is designed to overcome legal challenges to past attempts to send asylum seekers with a one-way ticket to the east African country.

The bill would compel judges to regard Rwanda as safe, and give ministers the power to ignore emergency injunctions.

The policy is central to the prime minister’s hopes of convincing voters he can “stop the boats” crossing the English channel.

The government hopes once the bill passes flights will be able to take off by the spring, but that timetable now looks in disarray.

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