Why Has Rishi Sunak Suggested He’s Waiting Until Autumn For A General Election?

Posted on 04/01/2024 by Boris Clair

British politics is slowly returning after the Christmas break, and speculation is growing over when the eagerly-anticipated general election will take place after comments made by Rishi Sunak.

What did Sunak say?

The prime minister announced on Thursday his “working assumption” was he would delay going to the country until the “second half” of 2024.

His comments suggest the election will be held in either October or November, as had been widely expected. But it comes following speculation Sunak could decide to call the election for May.

While he did not categorically rule out a spring poll, Sunak told broadcasters: “My working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year.”

Labour, which have consistently held a 20-point poll lead over the Tories, seized on the remarks as a sign he had “bottled” facing the British public and accused Sunak of “squatting” in Downing Street.

Rishi Sunak has yet again bottled giving the British public their say.

He’s squatting in Number 10 because he’s too weak to face the country. pic.twitter.com/IcCn5MEq8Y

— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) January 4, 2024

What do we actually know?

In Britain, each electoral term is supposed to last five years. Then prime minister Boris Johnson called the last general election in December 2019, meaning meaning the latest possible date for the country to go to the polls would be January 2025.

But in reality, and ever since the establishment of fixed terms in 2011, the five-year gap between polls is not what happens in practice.

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, a prime minister has the power to call an election earlier than the deadline – all voters would have to wait for is the 25 days between a PM making a “request” to the King to dissolve parliament (and as a constitutional monarch, the King Charles could not reject it) and polling day.

What’s influencing the date?

As it’s in his gift to choose, Sunak is clearly likely to pick a date most favourable to him and his party. And since Labour holds a commanding poll lead, he isn’t going to rush the country to the ballot box when there’s still time to steal a win – however unlikely that currently looks.

His decision could be based on not just whether he can snatch an unlikely victory from the jaws of defeat, but also under the grimest projections if he can reduce the number of seats the Tories lose and prevent a 1997-style Labour landslide (or worse).

So what is affecting that choice?

The next big political fixture is the spring budget, when chancellor Jeremy Hunt could magic up some tax and spending commitments that sit well with the electorate. It was the announcement of the March 6 fiscal event that prompted speculation of an spring budget, and a blitz of crowd-pleasing promises could yet encourage Sunak to go early.

But his words on Tuesday suggest he doesn’t think this will be enough.

Other than pushing taxpayers’ money around, he may be on the lookout for something to materialise, and that could lead the country to waiting until the last minute. Three areas in particular will be on his radar: the economy, immigration and an apparent lack of enthusiasm for the Labour alternative.

A positive story around the economy could be possible if the UK manages to avoid a recession in 2024 as inflation cools to more normal levels. But it may be too late to reverse voter antipathy towards the Tories given how Liz Truss crashed the economy, and high mortgage rates continue to hurt homeowners.

Sunak’s “stop the boats” pledge has been central to his pitch to voters since becoming Tory leader, and any sense that he has been able to curb the number of small boats crossing the English channel may be something he can stitch a better narrative out of.

He may hope to combine an uptick on either or both of these with the argument Keir Starmer isn’t the answer to Britain’s problems – but perhaps even January 2025 isn’t enough time to make this strategy work.

Most Voters Want A General Election By Next Summer, New Mega-Poll Reveals

Posted on 31/12/2023 by Boris Clair

Most voters want a general election by next summer – with one in three demanding one as soon as possible.

A new mega-poll also shows that just 17% want to wait until next autumn to give their verdict on Rishi Sunak’s government.

The prime minister confirmed earlier this month that the general election will definitely take place in 2024.

However, it is still unclear whether the PM will opt to go to the country in the spring or wait until the autumn.

The latest the election can possibly be is January, 2025 – an option supported by just 9% of the public.

According to the poll of more than 10,000 by Focaldata for the Best for Britain group, 61% want it to be held by June. Of those, 36% want it to be as soon as possible.

The findings echo a separate poll by the More in Common think-tank, which found that 73% want an election my next May.

The Focaldata poll also found that 38% of voters would consider voting tactically to change the government, with just 13% saying they would do so to keep Sunak in No.10.

Rishi Sunak must decide whether to go to the country in the spring or autumn.

Meanwhile, Keir Starmer is the most popular choice to be prime minister in 390 of the country’s 650 constituencies, including Sunak’s seat of Richmond.

The poll also showed that three-quarters of Brits believe that Brexit has increased the cost of their weekly shop, while nearly two-thirds think it has stunted the UK’s economic growth.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “The message in our polling from voters is clear – they want an election, they think Brexit has hurt them in their pockets, and they’re prepared to vote tactically for change.

“Labour may be on course for a victory, but under our broken electoral system nothing can be taken for granted.

“With the possibility of Nigel Farage’s party offering a life raft to his vulnerable friends on the Conservative right, tactical voting will be more important than ever.”

How Likely Is A General Election Now?

Posted on 21/10/2022 by Boris Clair

The Conservative Party is about to choose its fifth leader in six years.

As the largest party in the Commons, this leader will also become the prime minister – despite not being elected by the general public, but by Tory MPs and the approximately 160,000 Tory members.

Liz Truss will remain in place until her successor is announced, hopefully by Friday, October 28.

But, as the Tories go through yet another change of hands, many are calling for the vote to go back to the public via a general election, while online petitions for the cause are growing.

But just how likely is it that the electorate can go back to the polling stations early?

When would the next election be, without intervention?

Unless an announcement is made, the next general election is not set to happen for a while. That’s because Boris Johnson called the last snap general election in December 2019 and each term is five years’ long.

This is counted from the day the new parliament first met, so parliament would next be automatically dissolved on Tuesday, December 17, 2024.

Twenty-five days of polling would follow, meaning the last possible date for people to hit the ballot boxes would be Tuesday, January 24, 2025.

Elections are typically held on a Thursday so the public can find out who won on the Friday and a cabinet can be appointed over the weekend, but this is not a fixed rule.

Why do people want another general election?

Having another leader of the Conservative party – and potentially a third person standing leading the Tories in one term – is not a constitutional issue, and has happened before.

A prime minister was replaced twice without a general election being called in the 20th Century. Winston Churchill became prime minister after two other PMs resigned – there was no general election for him until 1945, due to the Second World War.

A similar situation occurred between 1900 and 1906.

Gordon Brown also did not call an early election when he took over from Labour PM Tony Blair in 2007, waiting until 2010 to call the public to vote. Theresa May entered Downing Street in 2016, but didn’t call an election until the following year and Johnson waited around six months before he dissolved parliament.

This is because each one of them wanted to shore up their mandate from the public, but were keen to establish themselves in office first.

But now, the leading party have been in power for 12 years and, with another leader entering No.10, many of the public feel disenfranchised.

How do you call a general election?

A prime minister usually has to call an early election.

While the power was handed to the House of Commons between 2011 and 2019, the Tories gave it back to the PM with a new law called the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

The prime minister would have to make a “request” to the King to dissolve parliament (and as a constitutional monarch, the King could not reject it) and a polling day would be organised for 25 working days later.

All MPs lose their status once parliament is closed and have to campaign for re-election.

Labour cannot force a general election.

As the main party of the opposition, it can call a no-confidence vote against the government. But, some members of the Conservatives – as the majority party – would then have to vote against their own government, so it’s pretty unlikely to actually happen. The Tories currently have a majority of 71 seats, and probably wouldn’t want to lose it.

The King could technically invite somebody else to form a government, someone who would win a vote of confidence in the Commons. However, that hasn’t happened since King George V asked Ramsay MacDonald to create a government in January 1924, after Stanley Baldwin lost a vote in January 1924.

Who wants an early election?

Many on the opposition benches want to call a general election early, especially as an Opinium poll found voters have swung in the Labour Party’s favour, with a 39-point lead – adding up to a whopping 411 seats.

The Conservatives have dropped to a historic low in the opinion polls with Truss’s favourability dropping to -70 among the public according to YouGov.

The same data company also found that 63% of respondents want an early general election.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said shortly after the resignation of Truss that his party have a manifesto ready “whenever an election is called”.

He said: “This is not just a soap opera at the top of the Tory party – it’s doing huge damage to the reputation of our country.

“We need a general election so the public can have their say on this utter chaos.

“There’s a manifesto that is going to be ready whenever an election is called,”

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey spoke to BBC Breakfast on Friday and said the Conservatives have shown “they’re unfit to govern”, and that “we need to get rid of them”.

“I think the Conservative MPs now need to do their patriotic duty and work with the opposition parties to get that general election so that British people can have their say,” he continued.

SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has also said it was a “democratic imperative” for the next PM to call a general election.

Welsh party, Plaid Cymru, and the Green Party have called for an immediate general election too.

According to YouGov, just 19% of voters would back the Conservatives if a general election was held right now.

What Is This One Nation Conservatism That Boris Johnson Keeps Banging On About?

Posted on 13/12/2019 by Boris Clair

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Will Keeping Donald Trump At Arms Length Help Boris Johnson To Victory In The Election?

Posted on 05/12/2019 by Boris Clair