‘The Benefits Are Pure Fantasy’: MPs Debate Brexit Impact For First Time

The benefits of Brexit have been written off as “pure fantasy” as MPs debated the consequences of leaving the European Union amid growing concern over the decision.

On Monday, a three-hour debate took place in Westminster Hall triggered by 183,000 people signing a petition calling for a public inquiry into the impact of Brexit.

Brexit and its consequences have been discussed periodically in parliament, but it is thought this is the first time a full debate has examined what leaving the bloc has led to.

Brexit has been cited repeatedly as the UK’s economy is expected to perform the worst out of any G20 economies apart from Russia this year and next, an IMF analysis has suggested.

On the same day as the debate, Gerry Murphy, the chairman of Burberry, said leaving the EU had been a “drag on growth” as he hit out at the “spectacular own goal” of a post-Brexit VAT change during a Q&A with Rishi Sunak.

Ministers have previously rejected a call for an official probe into the effects of leaving the EU.

The debate was opened by SNP MP Martyn Day, speaking in favour of the petition.

He told parliamentarians: “Nearly seven years on from the Brexit referendum, the UK public are still waiting for the elusive ‘Brexit benefits’ that were promised.

“It seems to me, having raised just some of the areas where leaving the EU has impacted on the UK, that the benefits of Brexit are pure fantasy.

“The economic fallout from Brexit is stark and it has been made starker by the current cost of living crisis that is being inflicted on households up and down the country.

“From my perspective, Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster—politically, economically and socially, for Scotland and the rest of the UK.

“The UK government, of course, have a means to refute this.

“When major events occur, public inquiries can be held into matters of public concern to establish facts, to learn lessons so that mistakes are not repeated, to restore public confidence and to determine accountability.”

Speaking against the petition, Conservative MP Adam Holloway said the biggest benefit was that “our sovereignty has been repatriated”.

“It is easy to disdain patriotism if you’re economically and socially mobile and derive your self-worth from a well-paid job, or if you life is made easier by cheap labour brought by free movement,” the MP said.

Labour MP Hilary Benn picked up on sovereignty issue as he argued proponents of Brexit were “in a state of confusion and denial”.

He said: “I met many people during the campaign who made that argument. Indeed, they said, ‘I don’t care about the economic impact. My sovereignty is more important.’ I respect people’s right to hold that view; I fundamentally disagree with it.

“But what was unforgiveable was to claim that we could have all our sovereignty, keep all the benefits of being a member of the European Union and get further benefits on top of that. It simply was not true, and we now know it was not true. Therefore, those who argued for us to leave the European Union are now in a state of confusion and denial.

“That is what is going on, particularly around the economic consequences. If we do not understand what those are, how on earth are we going to build a different relationship with our European colleagues over the months and years ahead?”

Labour’s Fleur Anderson hit out at “delusion” ministers.

She said: “In December 2021, I called for a debate on the impact of Brexit and a region-by-region report. The then leader of the House (Jacob Rees-Mogg) gave me this response: ’We can start prayers every morning…with a celebration of Brexit. We should have the Brexit prayer and perhaps even the Brexit song…because it has been a triumph for this nation in reasserting its freedom.′

“He said that we now have ‘happy fish’ and that across the country ‘there is general celebrating and rejoicing’.

“That level of delusion, flippancy and not taking the issue seriously is very frustrating for people across the country, and it is why they signed the petition in such large numbers. This cannot be the last word—just writing it off and saying that Brexit has been a success without giving evidence.”

The UK government has said: “The UK’s departure from the EU was a democratic choice, and the UK-EU institutions are functioning as intended. The Government does not believe this to be an appropriate subject for a public inquiry,”

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Historic Firm’s Letter Goes Viral Over Fears Of Being ‘Killed Off’ By Brexit

An historic lace manufacturer has said it faces being “killed off by our own side” thanks to levies brought about by Brexit.

In a letter published in the Financial Times that has since gone viral, Chris Mason, managing director of Derbyshire-based The Cluny Lace Company, says the taxman has imposed an 8% duty on the return of all the lace it has sent to France for dyeing.

He adds the levy has been backdated to when Brexit came into force two years ago.

In the letter, he writes: “We have spent more than 200 years building our business, fought for 30 years against the global textile trend of moving to the Far East and have now been killed off by our own side in a couple of years. We all lose.”

It was quickly seized upon on social media.

Dragons’ Den entrepreneur Deborah Meaden wrote: “Absolutely devastating…a pin sharp arrow to the futility and harm of leaving the EU…for so many businesses.”

Earlier this month, the government set out plans for how post-Brexit border checks on goods coming into the UK from the EU will work.

Ministers published a draft border operating model, designed to bring in the checks the UK is required to make under its Brexit trade agreement with the EU.

Ministers have delayed implementing the checks on several occasions since the UK officially withdrew from the trade bloc on January 31, 2020.

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Travel Chaos Returns As Long Queues Form At Dover Ahead Of Easter Weekend

Dover has been blighted by travel chaos again as long queues were reported at the major port linking the UK with continental Europe.

Last weekend, a political row kicked over the thousands of people who were delayed at the Kent travel hub, reportedly by up to 14 hours.

The delays were blamed on French border officials carrying out extra checks and stamping UK passports following Brexit, though home secretary Suella Braverman dismissed the link to leaving the EU.

On Thursday, ahead of the long Easter weekend, queues of “approximately 90 minutes” for passport checks were reported by ferry operator DFDS.

The queue had eased by 1pm, with DFDS saying “traffic is free flowing through border controls and check-in”.

Port officials said they held a “urgent review” with ferry operators and the French authorities in an attempt to avoid a repeat of last weekend’s delays.

Ferry companies are asking coach operators booked on sailings on Good Friday – expected to be the busiest day for outbound Easter travel from Dover – to “spread the travel” across the three-day period from Thursday to Saturday.

Additional “temporary border control infrastructure” has also been installed.

A general strike in France in a row over pension reforms is also causing disruption.

Lorries queue for the Port of Dover along the A20 in Kent as the getaway begins for the Easter weekend.
Lorries queue for the Port of Dover along the A20 in Kent as the getaway begins for the Easter weekend.

Gareth Fuller via PA Wire/PA Images

Lorries queue for the Port of Dover along the A20 in Kent as the getaway begins for the Easter weekend.
Lorries queue for the Port of Dover along the A20 in Kent as the getaway begins for the Easter weekend.

Gareth Fuller via PA Wire/PA Images

Last Sunday, Bravermandenied that Brexit was to blame for the travel chaos at Dover.

The home secretary instead urged holidaymakers stuck in huge queues as they try to get to France that they need to “be a bit patient”.

Appearing on Sophy Ridge on Sunday on Sky News, Braverman rejected comments by Doug Bannister, the chief executive of the port at Dover, who said that the “post-Brexit environment means that every passport needs to be checked”.

Ridge asked the home secretary: “Do we need to, after Brexit, just get used to this happening at busy periods?”

Braverman replied: “I don’t think that’s fair to say this has been an adverse effect of Brexit.

“I think we’ve had many years now since leaving the European Union and there’s been on the whole very good operations and processes at the border.

″What I would say is that at acute times, when there is a lot of pressure crossing the Channel, whether that’s on the tunnel or ferries, then I think that there’s always going to be a backup and I just urge everybody to be a bit patient while the ferry companies work their way through the backlog.”

HuffPost UK has reported ministers turned down a bid by the Port of Dover for funding to build more passport booths.

Officials at the port applied to the Cabinet Office for £33 million from a special infrastructure fund in 2020.

The cash would have paid for “additional French passport control booths to compensate for slower transaction times and a reordering of controls within the port” following Brexit.

But a press release issued by the port in December 2020 says that “at the eleventh hour the port [was] offered just one tenth of one per cent of what was needed”.

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Journalist Torpedoes Tory Claims That Brexit Is Not To Blame For Dover Chaos

A journalist has torpedoed the claims of senior Tories that Brexit is not to blame for the traffic chaos at Dover.

Simon Calder, The Independent’s travel editor, said the French authorities were doing what “we asked them to do” by painstakingly checking the passports of everyone trying to get across the Channel.

Thousands of holidaymakers trying to get away for the Easter holidays have been caught up in huge tailbacks in Kent in the past 48 hours.

Doug Bannister, the chief executive of the port at Dover, said that the “post-Brexit environment means that every passport needs to be checked”.

But home secretary Suella Braverman said: “I don’t think that’s fair to say this has been an adverse effect of Brexit.”

And local Tory MP Natalie Elphicke said she was “incredibly disappointed to see French border control problems once again adding to traffic mayhem” at the Kent port.

Appearing on Sky News today, Calder calmly explained why both Braverman and Elphicke were wrong.

He said: “For decades we’ve had so-called juxtaposed border controls at Dover.

“That very simply means French passport officials checking everything before you board the ferry. Normally that’s great because it means as soon as you get to Calais or Dunkirk, you’re free to go.

″Unfortunately, it was never designed, the port of Dover, which as you know is a very constrained area beneath the white cliffs, there was never idea that we would be a hard, external EU frontier just the same as they have in Russia and Turkey.

″But that was exactly what we signed up for after Brexit.

“So previously you would turn up in your car or on a coach and just wave your passport and if they really wanted to a passport official could check ‘is this Anna Jones, is this a valid passport’ and off you’d go.

“Now, they are required – as we asked them to do – to go through, check all your stamps to stamp the passport, and that on a coach needs to be replicated 50 or 60 times.

″And however many French frontier officials you can send over, it’s simply going to back up.”

Extra sailings were run overnight to try and clear the backlog and by Sunday morning the port estimated some travellers would face waits of up to eight hours, depending on the ferry operator.

A port spokesman said: “The additional sailings have assisted in clearing some of the traffic, although currently both DFDS and P&O have two full lanes of coaches in the port before French border controls, with a processing time of about 4.5 hours.

“P&O have some coaches waiting at the cruise terminal and DFDS have some at service stations in Kent.

“Once coaches are processed in an operator’s lane, more are being sent to the port. Currently, the estimated total time is six to eight hours dwell time.”

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Is It Finally All Over For Boris Johnson?

As political barometers go, it was pretty stark.

Asked if they believed Boris Johnson told the truth when he appeared before MPs this week, not a single member of the Question Time audience put their hand up.

Even more worryingly for the former prime minister, the programme was being broadcast from Newcastle-under-Lyme, part of the famous Red Wall of seats where he is still said to be popular with voters.

It was a fitting denouement to a miserable week for a man who was still in Downing Street less than a year ago.

Johnson suffered two major blows to his hopes of a political comeback within a few hours on Wednesday afternoon.

His irascible performance in front of parliament’s privileges committee, which is investigating claims he misled the Commons over partygate, left few in any doubt that he will be found guilty.

Should the committee decide to impose a suspension of more than 10 days, and parliament votes for it, he could face a by-election in his Uxbridge seat.

On the same day, Johnson’s hopes of leading a wide-scale Tory revolt against his arch-nemesis Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal ended in failure when only 21 of his colleagues followed him into the No lobby.

Meanwhile, while all this was going on, Rishi Sunak enjoyed a game of cricket in the Downing Street garden with England’s T20 world cup-winning team.

Rishi Sunak enjoyed a game of cricket in the No10 garden with England's T20 World Cup winning and children from the ACE cricket programme on Wednesday.
Rishi Sunak enjoyed a game of cricket in the No10 garden with England’s T20 World Cup winning and children from the ACE cricket programme on Wednesday.

Simon Walker/10 Downing Street

As he surveys the political scene this weekend, Johnson will surely be contemplating the very real possibility that his ambition of a triumphant return to No.10 will be unfulfilled.

Many experienced observers of Westminster believe that the game is up for the former PM.

One senior Tory told HuffPost UK: “He’s just like that drunk uncle at the wedding who is there at the reception but you don’t really know why.”

Others believe that even Johnson’s media cheerleaders have decided to move on and throw their weight behind Sunak as the next election draws nearer.

“I thought it was very telling there was a front page of the Telegraph was very negative about him after his committee appearance,” said one former cabinet member. “I think that’s a weathervane.

“I think it’s a cocktail of the partygate stuff and the Brexit vote. It could have gone the other way – he could have had a major triumph in the committee and there could have been a big rebellion, but in the end it was just the usual suspects who voted with him.

“A line has been drawn and people just want to move on.”

One Tory MP told HuffPost UK: “His defence at the committee was basically ‘I’m an idiot’. Some people might accept that, but I think it just reaffirmed that him coming back is just not a realistic possibility.

“Even if Rishi falls under a bus, literally or politically, it’s not going to Boris who steps in to the breach. A significant enough number of MPs just wouldn’t wear it. Most of them realise he’s not an asset to them any more.”

Tory peer and election guru Lord Hayward told Sky News: “His support is diminishing and his impact on the party is diminishing the longer Rishi Sunak is prime minister.”

Former minister Caroline Nokes was even more forthright, declaring that Johnson is “finished”.

“I think there was a very clear message from his own ministers back in the summer that they didn’t want him to carry on,” she told ITV’s Peston show.

“He didn’t choose to stand against Rishi Sunak back in the autumn when we had the second leadership challenge.

“As far as I’m concerned, Boris Johnson is not coming back as prime minister.”

Johnson still does have his hardcore supporters who will defend him to the bitter end.

Jacob Rees-Mogg told Channel 4 News “he’s winning in the court of public opinion”, while Nadine Dorries said the privileges committee is “a kangaroo court” determined to find him guilty regardless of the evidence.

One Johnson ally said that if the partygate inquiry had been properly dealt with a year ago, he would probably still be PM.

“It would have helped restore perspective and pedestrianise what was portrayed as sinister and dramatic at the time,” they told HuffPost UK.

“The world now knows that police looked at the legality and found the PM and Rishi at fault for one event that the public would totally understand.

“People were working hard in No.10 and were there for long and endless hours – they weren’t heading in for a party. And the bad stuff unveiled by the Sue Gray report was a shock to Boris as much as anyone.

“We all lost the plot getting obsessed with partygate when we should have been looking at things like the anaemic economic growth, high inflation, the delays to HS2 and the fact that corporation tax is too high.”

However, the ally did agree with Johnson’s detractors that there is no chance of him returning to Downing Street.

They said: “There is no vacancy. Period.”

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Jeffrey Donaldson Says Sunak’s Brexit Deal Needs To Be ‘Changed’ Before DUP Backs It

Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal needs “re-working and change” before the DUP can support it, the party’s leader Jeffrey Donaldson has declared.

In a major blow for the prime minister, Donaldson said the Windsor Framework did not go far enough to address unionists’ concerns.

The agreement, which Sunak struck with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen earlier this month, aims to solve the problems caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol signed by Boris Johnson three years ago.

He said it would remove the current customs border in Irish Sea while also giving the UK government an effective veto on new EU laws being imposed on Northern Ireland.

MPs are to be given a Commons vote on the deal, with the DUP’s support being seen as crucial to prevent a major rebellion by Brexiteer Tories.

The DUP’s support for the Framework is also seen as essential for the party to agree to enter a power-sharing government at Stormont with Sinn Fein.

But speaking during a visit to Washington, Donaldson said as it currently stands, his party cannot back it.

In a statement, he said: “It is my current assessment that there remains key areas of concern which require further clarification, reworking and change, as well as seeing further legal text.”

He added: “What is in this Windsor Framework is insufficient. It does not meet all of our requirements, it does not go as far as we need, in terms of our tests and in terms of restoring fully Northern Ireland’s place within the internal market of the United Kingdom.

“So, we need to see the legislative safeguards, we need to see the legislation that is going to ensure the Government honours the commitments it has made.”

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Chinese Car Maker Rules Out UK Factory ‘Because Of Brexit’

The world’s biggest seller of electric and hybrid cars has ruled out building its first European factory in the UK because of the uncertainty caused by Brexit.

Michael Shu, the European president of Chinese firm BYD, said Britain hadn’t even made it onto the long list of potential sites.

He told the Financial Times: “As an investor we want a country to be stable. To open a factory . . . is a decision for decades.

“Without Brexit, maybe. But after Brexit, we don’t understand what happened.

“The UK doesn’t have a very good solution. Even on the long list we didn’t have the UK.”

Instead, BYD are looking to build a factory in Germany, France, Spain, Poland or Hungary.

Shu’s comments come after French president Emmanuel Macron hit out at the “consequences of Brexit” at a summit with Rishi Sunak.

He also said the effects of quitting the EU had been “under-estimated” before the 2016 referendum.

The decision to quit the EU has also been blamed for a labour shortage which has forced the government to relax visa rules for foreign workers.

Ministers to plug huge gaps in the job market by starting with looser rules for the building industry, according to the Financial Times.

A number of occupations will be added to the “shortage occupation list” which eases recruitment from abroad.

The list allows companies to obtain visas for staff paid on a lower threshold of £20,480 a year because the salary currently needed to obtain a “skilled worker” visa is £25,600.

Labour MP Stella Creasy told HuffPost UK: “British workers are losing jobs and opportunities hand over fist not being able to work in the EU or for companies that want to work with the EU because of the post Brexit visa situation, whilst the UK’s inability to build a functioning immigration and asylum system is holding back our economy at a time when vacancies are at over a million.

“We need urgent reform of the whole visa system to ensure we tackle not just shortages in the UK labour market but also opportunities for all as part of kickstarting growth in our economy.”

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Boris Johnson Goads Rishi Sunak Over Poor Tory Poll Ratings

Boris Johnson has goaded Rishi Sunak over the prime minister’s poll ratings, as he delivered his first public speech in the UK after being forced out of No.10.

Speaking in Westminster on Thursday afternoon, Johnson said it was “very unlikely” he would “need to do anything big in politics again”.

But he indicated he would continue to speak out on issues including Brexit, the need to level up the north of England and to help Ukraine.

And the former PM said: “When I stepped down we were only a handful of points behind the Labour Party.”

When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% — an 11 point lead.

The latest survey from YouGov has put Labour on 46% and the Tories on 23% — 23 points ahead.

On September 29, 2022, YouGov released a shock poll that showed Labour had surged to a 33-point lead over the Conservatives amid the market turmoil caused by Liz Truss’ mini-Budget.

When Truss quit as prime minister, Johnson mounted a dramatic challenge to Sunak in a bid to return to No.10.

In the end he pulled out of the contest after deciding he did not have enough support from Tory MPs to lead a stable government.

But rumours in Westminster that Johnson still hopes to make a comeback have not gone away, stoked by allies who want him to return.

Asked today about his future plans, Johnson said: “I think it very, very unlikely that I will need to do anything big in politics again.”

He also devoted a large section of his speech to trashing Sunak’s new Brexit deal, which he said would be “very difficult” for him to vote for.

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Why Is The DUP Hesitant About Rishi Sunak’s Brexit Deal?

Rishi Sunak has won praise after chasing the hard yards to get the EU to redraw the controversial Northern Ireland protocol. Now, he has to convince his party to fall behind it.

It may well be an opportunity he relishes, given that so far, the noises coming from Tory MPs about the “Windsor Framework” agreed with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen seem to be broadly positive.

However, the road ahead is not entirely hurdle-free.

The prime minister will be looking to secure the approval of arguably one of the most important voices in the Brexit debate — Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which remains concerned about aspects of the deal.

The DUP has close ties with the Brexiteers of the Tory backbench European Research Group (ERG), some of whom are waiting for their judgment before casting their own verdict.

Here, HuffPost UK explains what the DUP’s position on the deal is and why it matters.

What Is The Windsor Framework?

It is a new deal struck by Rishi Sunak and the EU that will replace the Northern Ireland protocol.

At the heart of the arrangement is the idea of green lanes and red lanes. British goods staying in NI will use the green lane at ports, meaning they face minimal paperwork.

Goods travelling into Ireland will use the red lane, meaning they face customs processes and other checks at Northern Ireland ports.

A key part of the deal is an emergency “Stormont brake” on changes to EU goods rules that can be pulled by the NI Assembly.

Time and Space

The DUP has repeatedly said it will take time to consider the substance of the deal before deciding whether to back it.

That process could take weeks, or even months, the party has warned.

However, there is an incentive to come to a conclusion quickly.

The DUP is a joint partner with Sinn Fein in Stormont’s power-sharing execruive that is crucial to the functioning of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Since February last year, the DUP has boycotted the assembly in protest at the previous Northern Ireland protocol, which Sunak has now replaced to address concerns around sovereignty, disrupted trade and the application of EU law.

Without the DUP’s participation, Stormont cannot function and people in Northern Ireland have effectively been left without a government.

While Sunak has said the DUP should be given “time and space” to consider the agreement, he made it clear that restoring Stormont was of vital importance.

Sunak told an audience in Northern Ireland earlier this week: “The framework is a fantastic agreement that delivers on all the things people care about. So now I hope that they do see it and see that and they can find a way to come back together.”

“It’s what you deserve.”

What are the DUP’s concerns?

The so-called “Stormont brake” has been hailed as the “rabbit in the hat” in the Windsor Framework.

With it, the UK says the Northern Ireland Assembly will effectively be allowed to “block” new EU laws from applying in the country without cross-community support — a key demand of unionists.

Sunak lauded the brake as an “incredibly powerful” mechanism that would allow the people of Northern Ireland to have “control of their own destiny”.

If Assembly members, called MLAs, dislike changes to EU goods laws then 30 of them can sign a petition to trigger a vote to stop the rules from taking effect.

If the vote passes with a majority of nationalist and unionists, the brake will be pulled and the UK government will have the power to veto any new or amended EU law.

But there are some concerns about potential discrepancies in how the UK and EU interpret the brake, after the EU described it as an “emergency mechanism” that could be used “in the most exceptional circumstances, as a last resort”.

Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s chief whip, told Times Radio that the Stormont brake “is not really a brake at all” and that it was just a “delaying mechanism”.

He said the UK government would have the final say over whether to veto a law, which he said it would be reluctant to do due to being “fearful of the consequences of trade for the rest of the United Kingdom”.

“The price of that would be that the EU would take retaliatory action,” he said, adding that he suspects the Stormont brake would therefore be “fairly ineffective”.

Splits in the DUP

According to the Times, division is emerging between the DUPs’ members in Stormont — who are keen to get the assembly back up and running — and the party’s MPs in Westminster, who are taking a harder and more sceptical line against the deal.

Although he said that changes may need to be made to the deal and that “key issues of concern remain”, the DUP’s leader, Jeffrey Donaldson did also hail the “significant progress” that Sunak had achieved.

But other key players have spoken out against the deal, with Ian Paisley Junior saying it did not “cut the mustard” and was likely to be rejected.

The DUP will also be conscious of the threat it faces from Jim Allister, the founder and leader of Traditional Unionist Voice in the lead up to the local elections in May.

Allister, a former member of the DUP, will be looking to brand any talk of compromise as a sell out and a betrayal.

What has the ERG said?

Mark Francois, the chairman of ERG, said the group’s “star chamber” of lawyers were now poring over the deal and that it would aim to come to a conclusion “within a fortnight”.

He said he had sought assurances that he “won’t find any nasty surprises” when analysing the deal.

Does Sunak need the DUP to get the deal through parliament?

Technically Sunak does not need the support of the DUP, or even the ERG, to get the deal through the Commons after Labour confirmed it would vote with the government.

However, the prime minister will want to get the DUP on board as that will reduce any potential Tory rebellion. If he does not, the party could use its powerful voice to undermine the deal at every opportunity — something he will want to avoid at all costs.

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What Will Be In Rishi Sunak’s Brexit Deal And Will MPs Back It?

After months of impasse over the Northern Ireland protocol, Rishi Sunak is finally preparing to present a new deal to parliament that could be the defining moment of his premiership.

The prime minister holding talks with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to put the final touches to the new arrangements.

While it is not yet known what is in the deal, there are a number of key issues that Sunak has sought to address — including ticking his “three boxes” of sovereignty for Northern Ireland, safeguarding its place in the Union and easing disruption for people and businesses.

However, while Sunak and the EU may now be on the same page, it is not guaranteed that everyone in the Tory Party, and the Democratic Unionist Party, will be on board.

Here HuffPost UK takes you through what could be in Sunak’s deal and what the key sticking points are.

The protocol is a trading arrangement, negotiated during Brexit talks, that allows goods to be transported across the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland without the need for customs checks.

The deal was aimed at protecting the delicate Good Friday Agreement by avoiding putting up a hard border between NI and the Republic.

However, unionist parties argue that the protocol instead places an effective border in the Irish Sea, undermining Northern Ireland’s place within the UK.

Goods moving from GB to NI currently have to undergo vigorous checks because they may end up in the Republic of Ireland, which remains in the EU’s single market. That has created friction and disruption for businesses which the UK and EU both want to solve.

The protocol is so disliked by the DUP, Northern Ireland’s largest unionist party, that it has refused to take part in the power-sharing government with Sinn Fein at Stormont unless its concerns are resolved.

What are the main the problems with the protocol?

Unionists are concerned about the disruption to trade that has resulted from checks at Northern Ireland’s ports, as well as the fact that the country is being treated differently from the rest of the UK — something they regard as unacceptable.

Alongside that, unionists do not like that Northern Ireland has to follow some EU rules, without having a say on how those rules work. They call this the “democratic deficit”.

A particular gripe for Brexiteers and unionists is the role that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) plays in solving potential disputes in Northern Ireland.

While the protocol has created an economic advantage for Northern Ireland in that it can sell both within the UK internal market and into the EU single market, because it has to follow some EU laws, it also falls under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

Put simply, the DUP want the ECJ’s influence in Northern Ireland removed entirely.

What changes could there be?

Sunak is understood to have negotiated a new arrangement to avoid customs checks on the vast majority of goods travelling between Britain and Northern Ireland.

The new deal is expected to see the creation of “green” and “red” lanes.

Goods that are only destined for Northern Ireland will enter ports via the green lane and be subject to minimal checks. Those that are due to end up in the Republic of Ireland will go through the red lane and will have to undergo full EU checks.

While Brexiteers and unionists want Northern Ireland to be free from the ECJ, for the EU its role is a red line — if the region is to enjoy the perks of being in the single market then it must abide by the rules like other EU member states.

The compromise that could be achieved is a reduced and minimal role for the ECJ.

Deputy prime minister Dominic Raab said the reduction in trade red tape would lead to a “substantial scaling back” of the role of the ECJ — but he did refuse to rule out the court having a say on future legal cases, which could prove unpalatable to the DUP.

According to the Times, the deal could ensure that Brussels would have to notify Britain if it intends to apply any future regulations to Northern Ireland, which it could raise objections to.

The Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly may also be able to delay any potential regulation by having the power to put it to a vote.

The newspaper reports that if there are any disputes over the application of EU law in Northern Ireland, the region’s courts would consider it first and then decide whether to refer the issue to the ECJ.

Will MPs back the deal?

The groups that Sunak needs to woo the hardest include the Brexiteers in the European Research Group (ERG) and the DUP — who want the complete eradication of EU law from Northern Ireland.

ERG chairman Mark Francois yesterday warned that the agreement must mean an end to EU laws being imposed on Northern Ireland and that there simply being “less of a role” for the ECJ was “not good enough”.

The Conservative former minister told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge: “What we want is a situation where EU law is expunged from Northern Ireland, so it is treated on the same basis as England, Scotland and Wales.”

Asked whether he would therefore not back any deal if the ECJ has any role in it, he said: “We have left the European Union. It doesn’t have that role now in England or in Scotland or in Wales.

“So, if we’re going to treat Northern Ireland as an integral part of the United Kingdom, then we have to get rid of the EU law in Northern Ireland. We’ve been absolutely consistent on this.”

The DUP has issued seven tests Sunak must meet if it is to back the deal, including that the people of Northern Ireland are given a say on the laws that affect them, that there are no checks moving between GB and NI and vice versa, and that there must be no border in the Irish Sea.

The DUP has also made it clear that it wants to see the text of the new legal framework — something the prime minister has not yet agreed to.

While Sunak promised that parliament would be allowed to “express its view” on the deal, it is not yet clear whether that will translate into a parliamentary vote.

However, if there is one, Sunak will want to avoid the scenes we saw under Theresa May — where there was deadlock in the Commons Chamber.

Opinion is divided over how important the DUP’s approval is — former Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg said the scale of any potential revolt against Sunak would “depend on the DUP”.

“If the DUP are against it, I think there will be quite a significant number of Conservatives who are unhappy,” he told GB News.

However, while Sunak will hope to the get the ERG and DUP on board, because Labour has said it will vote with the government in favour of the deal, he may be able to do it without them.

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