Whitehall Set To Run Liverpool Council As Corruption Probe Continues

Posted on 24/03/2021 by Boris Clair

Andrew ParsonsPA

Communities secretary Robert Jenrick

Whitehall commissioners look set to take over running parts of Liverpool City Council as a corruption probe into the town hall continues.

Communities secretary Robert Jenrick announced the proposal after a report by local government inspector Max Caller uncovered a “serious breakdown of governance” at the authority.

The report, published on Wednesday, followed five arrests, including that of elected mayor Joe Anderson on suspicion of conspiracy to commit bribery and witness intimidation.

Jenrick told MPs the council was “failing to comply” with its commitment to taxpayers and inspectors had uncovered “a worrying lack of record-keeping” and the “awarding of dubious contracts”.

The minister said the report was “not a verdict” on the authority’s staff, but that evidence of an “overall atmosphere of intimidation” had been found.

Jenrick said he was writing to the council to outline an intervention package “centred on putting in place commissioners who I will appoint” to run aspects of the council for three years.

He told the Commons: “I am also proposing that the council will, under the oversight of the commissioners, prepare and implement an improvement plan.”

Outlining a “deeply concerning picture of mismanagement, breakdown of scrutiny and accountability” at the council, he said: “As a whole, the report is unequivocal – that Liverpool City Council has failed in numerous respects to comply with its best value duty.

“It concludes that the council consistently failed to meet its statutory and managerial responsibilities and that the pervasive culture appeared to be rule avoidance.

“It further concludes that changes need to be radical, delivered at pace, and there was no confidence that the council itself would be able to implement these to any sensible timescale.

“There may also be further issues of which we are not yet aware, and the report is careful not to speak to matters that might compromise the ongoing police investigation.”

Peter ByrnePA

The Mayor of Liverpool Joe Anderson has been suspended from the Labour Party

The council’s director of regeneration, Nick Kavanagh, was also arrested as part of the police probe into building and development contracts in the city, and this week it was confirmed he had been dismissed from his role at the authority.

In a statement to the Liverpool Echo, he said he intended to clear his name at a tribunal.

Anderson, 63, has also denied any wrongdoing.

Merseyside Police said all suspects remain under investigation but bail has not been extended.

Jenrick said a programme of “cultural change” is expected to ensure members and officers “understand their roles”, adding he hopes Liverpool City Council will “take the lead in the path to improvement”.

He said: “Given the gravity of the inspection findings, I must consider what would happen if the council fails to deliver the necessary changes at the necessary speed.

“I’m consequently proposing to direct the transfer of all executive functions associated with regeneration, highways and property management at the authority to the commissioners. These are for use should the council not satisfy the commissioners in their improvement processes.

“I hope it won’t be necessary for the commissioners to use these powers, but they must be – in my view – empowered to do so to deliver the reforms that are required.”

Jenrick said he is proposing Liverpool City Council will move to “whole council” elections from 2023, along with a proposal for a reduced number of councillors elected on single member wards.

He said he expects to receive representations in response to the report by May 24 and the forthcoming elections will proceed as planned in May.

Responding to Jenrick, shadow communities secretary Steve Reed said it was wrong to characterise the move as a “Tory takeover” of Liverpool.

He told the Commons: “This report raises grave and serious concerns about decision-making in key functions of Liverpool City Council. All councils are under an obligation to meet their best-value duty to ensure value for money at all times. In these respects, Liverpool City Council has been found severely wanting. Labour, both here and our leadership at the city council, accept this report in full.

“The council will respond to (Jenrick’s) letter in detail but we support his intention to appoint commissioners, not at this stage to run the council, as he says, but to advise and support elected representatives in strengthening the council’s systems. This is a measured and appropriate approach.

“I want to reassure people in Liverpool that this does not mean Government ministers are coming in to run their city directly. This is not, as some would put it, a Tory takeover.

Liverpool has become a byword for anti-Tory sentiment – the city last had a Conservative MP 38 years ago and its last Conservative councillor lost his seat 23 years ago.

Derek Hatton, who was a member of Labour’s Militant faction and deputy mayor of the city council in the 1980s, said on Twitter: “Today could see the most outrageous and politically corrupt front to local democracy any of [us] have ever witnessed.

“Even in the ’80s Thatcher stopped short of imposing commissioners […] after she threw 47 of us out, local elections allowed 47 new Labour councillors to be then elected.”

Tom Crone, leader of the city’s Green Party group, said on Twitter: “If the government takes over Liverpool Council, that would be a disaster for the city. That we are even talking about it is a shocking indictment of this Labour administration.”

The focus of Caller’s investigation is on property management, regeneration, highways, contracts and planning at the council over the past five years.

Local elections, including a vote to elect Anderson’s successor, are due to take place in May.

Senior Tory Warns Against Forcing Care Home Staff To Have Vaccines

Posted on 23/03/2021 by Boris Clair

A Tory former cabinet minister has warned the government against forcing care home staff to have coronavirus vaccinations.

David Davis claimed mandating jabs for healthcare workers would be “illegal” and in breach of international law.

But Downing Street pointed out that some NHS staff are already required to get the hepatitis B vaccine, providing a “clear precedent” for mandatory Covid vaccines.

The clash came as health secretary Matt Hancock confirmed the government was considering legally requiring care home workers in England to be vaccinated against Covid-19.

Hancock insisted “no final decision” had been made amid a review into so-called vaccine passports, but confirmed that ministers were looking at jabs being made compulsory for care workers in England.

The plans have emerged amid concerns of low uptake from staff in care homes looking after those who are among the most vulnerable of death the disease, with around 24% of care workers remaining unvaccinated.

However, Davis’s comments highlighted the potential for the proposals to run into strong opposition from civil liberties Tories, who are already preparing to vote against the extension of Covid restrictions on Thursday.

It came after the Telegraph reported leaked details of a paper submitted to the “Covid O” sub-committee of Cabinet which said that prime minister Boris Johnson and Hancock had agreed to the proposal.

Hancock told LBC: “Because people who are looking after elderly residents in care homes, who we know to be the most vulnerable to Covid, they have a duty of care not to pass on the disease and it is a reasonable question.”

He said “many” care homes had asked for this to happen, adding: “There’s a legal change that’s required and, as you can see, I’m open to that, but no final decision has been taken.”

Davis, who is a staunch civil liberties campaigner, conceded there were “precedents” for mandatory vaccines, including hepatitis B vaccines.

But the former Brexit secretary suggested the comparison with hepatitis B vaccines was unfair, insisting these have been in use since the 1980s and have a long-term safety record.

Davis argued that the best way to protect care home residents was to ensure that they themselves are vaccinated and are therefore at far less risk of death or serious illness.

Tory former cabinet minister David Davis

He told the Commons public administration committee (PACAC): “It’s illegal to require vaccination at the moment.

“We are bound ourselves by both UN and European international agreements to the use of medical treatment.

“Medical treatment as it stands must only be for the benefit of the person it’s administered to.

“Medical treatment must not be administered for, as it were, communal purposes – otherwise we’ll all be giving mandatory blood transfusions and so on.

“I give blood anyway, but you’d have requirements like that.

“So that’s against both international and national laws.

“The answer… is to solve the problem by the method which is legal and acceptable, which is to vaccinate the people who are at risk.

“Look, if I were running a care home, and I am very pro-vaccines, I would say to all my workers – I would like you to vaccinate in the interests of our clients.

“But I couldn’t force it, and I don’t foresee a way which we can force it.

“And if you tried to say it’s now a requirement of your job, I don’t think the courts would uphold it – apart from anything else because you are costing someone their job for a requirement which can’t be enforced in law.”

Responding, the prime minister’s official spokesperson said: “This is something that happens already, for example doctors are required to have the hepatitis B vaccine.

“So there is a clear precedent for this proposition, elderly people in care homes are the most vulnerable to this disease.

“And this is something that care homes have actually called for.”

It came as the Independent Care Group, which represents providers in York and North Yorkshire, said making the vaccine mandatory for care workers could put people off from joining the sector.

A member of staff receives the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at the Abercorn House care home in Scotland... — A member of staff receives the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at the Abercorn House care home in Scotland on December 14

Chair Mike Padgham said it is vital care workers get vaccinated but it should be voluntary, adding: “I think rather than force it through legislation, the government has more work to do in terms of persuading everyone, not just care workers, about how important it is that the whole country has the vaccine so that we are all protected.”

Davis also cautioned the government against introducing so-called vaccine passports to allow immunised people to do certain activities, for example visiting a pub or attending a football match.

He said introducing Covid status certificates, which are currently being reviewed by the government, could be discriminatory against communities reluctant to take up the vaccine.

Davis told MPs: “The impact of this would be discriminatory. Under the law, it would be indirectly discriminatory and that is illegal.

“You may well find, it has been said, that Black and ethnic minority communities are less inclined to get vaccinated, well that would be indirect discrimination.”

Younger people were also less likely to have the jab and “some people have ethical or religious objections”, he said.

“There are a variety of good reasons for people not to take a vaccine. I’ve had a vaccine and I think most of the reasons are not ones I would subscribe to.

“But people have that freedom. What this proposal does is, in effect, coerce those people.”

Europe’s Third Wave Of Covid Will ‘Wash Up On Our Shores As Well’, Warns Boris Johnson

Posted on 22/03/2021 by Boris Clair

Boris Johnson has warned the third wave of coronavirus that has hit Europe will “wash up on our shores as well”.

Speaking on Monday afternoon, the prime minister said the UK “will feel those effects in due course”.

But he said the government would “bash on with the roadmap” it set out to gradually lift lockdown restrictions over the next few months.

It comes as EU leaders are set to meet on Thursday to decide whether to ban the export of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines to the UK.

There is frustration in the EU, which is lagging behind the UK in the rollout of its vaccination programme, over whether member states will get the supplies they expected.

Johnson is expected to ask European leaders this week to avoid triggering a vaccine supply war between the UK and EU.

The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is manufactured in several different factories, including two in the UK and two in the EU.

Downing Street said it remained “confident” in the UK’s vaccine supplies and repeated that the NHS was “on track” to offer first doses to all over-50s by April 15, and all other adults by the end of July.

Johnson said: “I’ve talked to our (European) friends repeatedly over the period — we’re all facing the same pandemic, we all have the same problems.

“If there is one thing that is worth stressing is that on the continent right now you can see sadly there is a third wave under way.

“People in this country should be under no illusions that previous experience has taught us that when a wave hits our friends, it washes up on our shores as well.

“I expect that we will feel those effects in due course.

“That’s why we’re getting on with our vaccination programme as fast as we can but a vaccination campaign and developing vaccines, rolling them out— these are international projects and they require international co-operation.”

Tuesday marks a year since the first lockdown was imposed in the UK. MPs will this week be asked to grant a six-month extension to the government’s lockdown powers.

No.10 Refuses To Say Sorry For Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Smear Against HuffPost Journalist

Posted on 19/03/2021 by Boris Clair

Downing Street has refused to apologise after Jacob Rees-Mogg used parliament to smear HuffPost UK journalist Arj Singh.

But No.10 did rebuke the Commons leader, by saying Boris Johnson would not have made the same comments.

Rees-Mogg on Thursday described Singh as “either a knave or a fool” and falsely accused him of “editing” comments made by foreign secretary Dominic Raab.

On Tuesday, HuffPost UK published a leaked extract from a video call in which Raab told foreign office staff that the UK was keen to trade with countries that had poor human rights records.

The government did not deny Raab had used the words, or suggest they had been doctored. HuffPost UK did not edit the recording that had been passed to us, and our article quoted it in full.

But Rees-Mogg, who is the leader of the House of Commons, on Thursday falsely accused Singh of “editing” the tape using a journalistic “cheat”.

And he said Raab’s words had been “shockingly distorted by low quality journalism”.

Labour has accused Rees-Mogg of an attempt to mislead parliament with the claims.

No. 10 distanced the prime minister from Rees-Mogg’s words on Friday, saying Johnson would not have made the same comments.

Commons leader Jacob Rees Mogg has just told MPs that Dominic Raab’s own comments which came out of his own mouth and were recorded on tape were “shockingly distorted by low quality journalism” by me.

Judge for yourself… pic.twitter.com/VFe0O8P2lt

— Arj Singh (@singharj) March 18, 2021

A Downing Street spokesperson said: “The PM is a staunch believer in the value of the free press and the important role journalists play in our democracy.

“These are not comments that the PM would have made.

“These comments were made by Jacob Rees-Mogg and I’m confident that he can explain their intended meaning.”

The spokesperson declined to say whether Rees-Mogg would be told to retract the comments or apologise.

Downing Street was repeatedly asked to back up claims that the report or recording had “distorted” what Raab had said. No evidence was provided.

The government was also pressured over its hostility to the media, after comments from the National Union of Journalists’ general secretary Michelle Stanistreet.

The union also picked out previous comments made by equalities minister Kemi Badenoch, to former HuffPost journalist Nadine White, who claimed it was “creepy and bizarre” for White to have privately asked for comment on a story.

It also follows a report last week that health secretary Matt Hancock had described The Guardian as “a rag” in leaked WhatsApp messages.

Stanistreet said “this behaviour has to stop”, adding: “It beggars belief that government ministers are smearing and impugning journalists in this way, indulging in outrageous behaviour that demeans them and the offices they hold.

“This same government, including the prime minister and other ministers, have committed time and resources to tackling the growing problem of abuse and harassment which is compromising the safety of journalists across the UK.

“Yet here we have colleagues around the cabinet table acting like playground bullies, undermining the work of journalists, bringing their work into disrepute, and dishing out insults that are clearly designed to further inflame harassment and abuse online.

“It’s not acceptable to dismiss reporting you don’t like as fake news. It’s completely unacceptable to resort to insults and personal smears of journalists simply trying to get on with their job.

“Our elected politicians should be committed to improving the parlous level of public discourse, not further polluting it. This behaviour has to stop, the government must get a grip and put its commitments to improving the recognition and value of journalists and journalism into practice.”

The UK’s Coronavirus R Rate Has Risen Slightly This Week

Posted on 19/03/2021 by Boris Clair

The UK’s Covid R rate has risen slightly to between 0.6 and 0.9, scientists advising the government have said.

Last week the estimated R rate was 0.6 and 0.8.

R measures the number of people, on average, that each sick person will infect.

If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is generally seen to be growing; if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.

The estimate was published on Friday and provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC).

Here’s what the R rate is in each region of England

In England, the R rate is 0.7 to 0.8.

Regionally it is as follows:

East of England – 0.6 to 0.9 (up from 0.6 to 0.8 last week)

London – 0.6 to 0.9 (up from 0.6 to 0.8)

Midlands – 0.6 to 0.9 (up from 0.6 to 0.8)

North-east and Yorkshire – 0.7 to 0.9 (no change)

North-west – 0.7 to 0.9 (no change)

South-east – 0.7 to 0.9 (up from 0.6 to 0.8)

South-west – 0.6 to 0.9 (up from 0.5 to 0.8)

Here’s what the R rate is in the devolved nations

In Scotland the latest figures estimate the R rate is between 0.7 and 1.0, last week it was between 0.6 and 0.8.

In Wales it is believed to be between 0.6 and 0.8, last week it was between 0.7 and 0.9.

And in Northern Ireland, the R is estimated to be between 0.9 and 1.1, last week it was between 0.75 and 0.95.

No Evidence AstraZeneca Vaccine Causes Blood Clots, Says UK Regulator

Posted on 18/03/2021 by Boris Clair

There is no proven link between the AstraZeneca vaccine and rare blood clotting, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has said.

Following a “rigorous scientific review” of all the available data, the regulator said the available evidence does not suggest that blood clots in veins are caused by the jab and it has urged people to take it when invited to do so.

It follows a detailed review of cases as well as data from hospital admissions and GP records. Experts from the government’s independent advisory group, the Commission on Human Medicines, also reviewed the data.

It comes after more than a dozen countries, including France, Germany, Italy and Spain suspended its use.

Dr June Raine, MHRA chief executive, said: “Our thorough and careful review, alongside the critical assessment of leading, independent scientists, shows that there is no evidence that that blood clots in veins is occurring more than would be expected in the absence of vaccination, for either vaccine.”

The regulator said it has received five reports of a rare blood clot after five men aged between 19 and 59 received the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.

The clot – cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) – prevents blood from draining out of the brain.

One of these cases was fatal, experts from the regulator told a press briefing.

“We have received a very small number of reports of an extremely rare form of blood clot in the cerebral veins (sinus vein thrombosis, or CSVT) occurring together with lowered platelets soon after vaccination,” said Dr Raine. “This type of blood clot can occur naturally in people who have not been vaccinated, as well as in those suffering from Covid-19.”

A further, detailed review into the five cases is ongoing. This has been reported in less than 1 in a million people vaccinated so far in the UK, and can also occur naturally – a causal association with the vaccine has not been established.

Phil Bryan, MHRA vaccine safety lead, said: “We take every single report of a suspected side effect seriously.

“We have received five reports of what is a very unique, specific form of blood clot … and this is similar to some of the cases that have been reported in Europe in the past week or so.

“What we don’t know is whether these cases have been caused by the vaccine.

“We are working closely with our experts and haematologists to try to gather more information to determine this.”

He added that these clots do happen very rarely naturally.

Bryan added: “Where we are now is that no proven causal association with what is still an extremely rare medical event has been proven for the AZ vaccine.

“But we do know that these are highly effective vaccines. We still have a huge burden of Covid disease in the population.

“So, right now, the balance of benefits and known risks of the vaccine are favourable.”

Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, chair of the Commission on Human Medicines, said: “Having reviewed all the data that was available to us, as well as reports, what we concluded was that there was no increased risk of peripheral venous thromboembolism based on all the data that’s available to us at the moment.

“We will still recommend that the vaccine is taken when you’re offered the vaccine.”

The World Health Organisation has also stated that the benefits of the vaccine “far outweigh the risks”.

Dr Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, said it was “routine to signal adverse events” but reiterated that people should “have confidence” in the protection given by vaccines.

Government Defeated Again Over Cladding Scandal In Lords Vote

Posted on 17/03/2021 by Boris Clair

The government has been defeated again over the cladding scandal as peers backed a fresh bid to ensure flat owners do not have to pay for fire safety work.

The House of Lords passed an amendment to the fire safety bill proposed by the Lord Bishop of St Albans, Alan Smith, by 326 votes to 248, to ensure leaseholders do not have to pay for the removal of unsafe cladding from homes.

It sets up a fresh headache for Boris Johnson in the Commons, where Tory MPs are threatening to rebel over what they see as unfair costs being passed to homeowners to fix historic fire safety defects identified after the Grenfell Tower disaster.

Thousands of people living in flats cased in combustible cladding face huge bills after the Grenfell fire revealed major flaws in medium- and high-rise buildings’ fire-safety.

Housing secretary Robert Jenrick last month attempted to defuse the row by promising £3.5bn of cash to help homeowners.

But he was accused of “betrayal” of leaseholders as it was revealed the plans would force some leaseholders into taking out loans.

The money will only pay for the removal of cladding in buildings over 18 metres high.

People living in buildings below that height will have to take out loans, wiping thousands of pounds off the value of their homes.

Leading Tory rebel MP Stephen McPartland said the government defeat was “brilliant news”.

He told HuffPost UK: “The amendment protects leaseholders from paying for historic fire safety costs and retains the status quo in the Fire Safety Reform Order 2005.

“Leaseholders, action groups and supporters of the amendment do not want the taxpayer to pay – we want those responsible to pay, and only the government has the power to provide the funds up front and then levy those responsible to pay them back.

“The focus is now on to persuade the government to work with us and leaseholders to find a compromise that protects leaseholders from paying for historic fire safety costs.”

Smith told the Lords that ministers had not addressed the “severe adverse financial consequences that this bill will create for leaseholders”, and that ministers were “morally wrong in their treatment of leaseholders in this crisis”.

He said freeholders would be able to force leaseholders to reimburse “staggering” costs for fire safety work that need to be carried out through no fault of their own.

The bishop told the Lords: “Far from the government’s estimated remedial costs of around £9,000 per leaseholder depending on the terms of the lease and the work involved, a leaseholder could very easily be handed a bill of £50,000 payable within weeks.”

Citing a survey by Inside Housing, he said many of those affected are already seeking bankruptcy options.

“How can this be fair? How can this be just?” he said.

“It’s not the leaseholders who sold defective cladding.

“It was not leaseholders who fitted defective cladding.

“Leaseholders are the innocent party – they purchased their properties in good faith, believing them to be safe.

“And if this bill passes unamended, it is they who will pay.

“Not the cladding providers, not the developers, but hardworking ordinary people, forced to pay for defects that were deemed safe when they purchased their apartments.”

He added: “By not including sufficient provision to protect leaseholders, a conscious decision would be made to impose poverty, possibly bankruptcy, and certainly misery on thousands of ordinary people – people whose only crime was being aspirational.

“Those responsible should be the ones who pay.”

Labour housing spokesperson Lord Kennedy of Southwark, who backed the amendment, said: “The leaseholders are victims and have done nothing wrong.

“They deserve to be treated much better than they have been by the government.

“They have done everything right, they have bought their property and are paying their mortgage and are being penalised for the failure of others.

“Surely that cannot be right.

“The fact that their building has been covered in dangerous cladding has made their flats worthless – they cannot sell them but they are still expected to pay their mortgage and other charges.”

The bill will now return to the Commons for further consideration in another round of parliamentary ping-pong.

No.10 Awkwardly Dodges Questions About Whether Boris Johnson Wanted To ‘Ignore’ Covid

Posted on 16/03/2021 by Boris Clair

Ian West/PA

Prime minister Boris Johnson

Downing Street has awkwardly dodged a string of questions about claims that Boris Johnson said ignoring Covid would be “the best thing” early in the pandemic.

The prime minister’s spokesperson ignored every opportunity to contradict the claims made in a bombshell BBC report, which also says cabinet ministers felt the PM should have installed a tougher lockdown last autumn to save more lives.

The documentary further claimed Johnson’s aides explicitly advised him to tell the public to stop shaking hands – despite which he boasted about shaking hands with hospital staff during an early press conference.

The PM’s spokesperson was asked four times on Tuesday about the central claim that Johnson was overheard saying at the start of the pandemic that “the best thing would be to ignore it”.

The BBC says he repeatedly warned that an overreaction could do more harm than good.

The spokesperson refused to deny the words had been said. “I would point back to what the prime minister said and set out at the time. It has always been our focus to reduce the cases of transmission, to protect the NHS and to ultimately protect lives.

“That’s what we did when we first locked down the country last year and that’s what we have sought to do throughout the pandemic.”

Put to him that he was not denying the allegation, the spokesperson said: “I’m pointing out that throughout the pandemic what we have done is do what we think was the best course of action in terms of protecting lives and in terms of protecting the NHS. That has been our focus throughout the pandemic.”

One source told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg there was a “lack of concern and energy” in No.10 as the virus began to hit the UK. “The general view was it is just hysteria. It was just like a flu.”

The BBC also quoted an unnamed cabinet minister’s frustration with the PM’s unwillingness to tighten restrictions in September as a second wave of infections began to appear.

“We knew there was going to be a second wave and there was a row about whether people should work from home or not – it was totally ridiculous,” they said.

No.10 also tried to dodge questions about a Daily Telegraph report saying the role of the Sage advisory committee of scientists would be “reviewed” after the pandemic, because they hold “too much sway” over ministerial decisions.

“We’ve said previously, there will be a time in the future to look back and analyse and reflect on all aspects of the pandemic,” the spokesperson said.

“But Sage continues and will continue to provide scientific evidence and information to the prime minister, the health secretary, and to the wider government as we move through implementing the roadmap.”

Yorkshire Police Sergeant Charged With Rape And Sexual Assault

Posted on 15/03/2021 by Boris Clair

shank_ali

Stock image of a police car

A West Yorkshire police officer has been charged with one count of rape and one count of sexual assault.

Ben Lister, a police sergeant based in Bradford, is due to appear at Bradford Magistrates’ Court on March 24.

West Yorkshire Police confirmed he has been suspended from the force.

Tories Get Polling Boost From Over-55s Who Have Had Covid Jab

Posted on 15/03/2021 by Boris Clair

Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce” is being driven by the over-55s who have so far been given the Covid jab, according to new polling analysis.

A study of Savanta/ComRes surveys by polling expert Lord Hayward found that the Tories’ opening up of a seven-point lead over Labour almost exactly mirrors the age-related rollout of the vaccination programme.

And crucially, the older generations are more likely to vote in the coming set of “super Thursday” local elections on May 6.

The Conservatives are hoping that the vaccine effect, together with Johnson’s personal popularity in the north and midlands, could combine to protect them from heavy losses in key councils in Lancashire, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.

Keir Starmer is pushing the government’s planned 1% pay cap for NHS nurses as a key theme of Labour’s local election campaign.

The UK has one of its largest ever sets of elections in May, with polls postponed last year by the pandemic combining with planned contests to allow the first nationwide verdict on the main parties since the 2019 general election.

As well as county, district and city elections, there will be votes for eight London and metro mayors, and for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.

Hayward said that the age differential of those switching support to the Tories was notable, given how the party had been neck and neck with Labour in early December but is now up to seven points behind across several polls.

“It is the older generations who have moved most markedly to the Conservatives. Basically the cohort from [the age of] 54 upwards.

“Now the significant thing is, they are the people who vote in local elections. So not only has that group moved towards the Conservatives, or has the population moved towards the Conservatives, but the people who’ve moved most towards the Conservatives are actually the people who vote generally.”

He went on: “It is quite noticeable. It was first of all the age group from 64 upwards that moved. There’s some sign now that the 55-year-old and upwards are also moving.

“And interestingly enough, they are the people who have received their vaccinations. So there’s clearly an element of ‘vaccine bounce’. I think it goes hand in hand. I don’t think it’s chance.”

More than 90% of pensioners have had their first dose of the Covid vaccine. Everyone aged 55 and over has already been notified they are eligible for vaccination, with some projections suggesting that everyone over 50 could be jabbed by the end of this month. It could take until the end of June to give a first dose to every adult over 18.

Hayward, the pollster who first coined the phrase “shy Tories” to explain John Major’s surprise 1992 victory, said the prime minister could be further assisted by each stage of the exit from lockdown restrictions in the weeks before the May polling day.

But he cautioned that other polling evidence showed concerns about Covid were receding notably since January and it was possible that its salience overall as an electoral issue could diminish in coming weeks as a result.

In a normal year, Labour would be expected to make substantial gains in the local elections, not least as the Tories had impressive seat holds or gains in 2016 and 2017, the baseline for this year’s contests.

Yet in key “red wall” areas that Boris Johnson won at Westminster level in 2019, there are signs that his personal popularity has increased. There are marked regional differences, with the PM’s popularity still very low in London but actually healthy in the north, the new analysis said.

The Tories will be heartened by another poll on Monday, with an IpsosMORI/Evening Standard survey finding a surge in economic optimism. For the first time since 2015, slightly more people think things will improve over the coming year than think they will get worse.

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