Maybe the Conservatives don’t really need a new leader, after all.
Remarkably, the party has actually gained seven local council seats in the past five weeks after suffering a landslide general election defeat less than three months ago.
That is despite the fact that, for all intents and purposes, the Tories are effectively leaderless at the moment.
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Rishi Sunak is still nominally in charge. But even those close to him concede that he mentally checked out of the job on the morning of July 5.
Indeed, the former PM will hardly be seen at the Conservatives’ annual conference in Birmingham, which kicks off on Sunday. He will address a members-only reception that evening, and is expected to play no further part in the proceedings.
The Conservatives’ poll ratings have recently ticked up slightly, although this has more to do with the Labour government’s ongoing woes than a sudden wave of affection for the Tories.
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Polling by Savanta, seen by HuffPost UK, confirms that the general public have stopped paying attention to the party.
Given a choice of who would make the best opposition leader, Sunak, Nigel Farage or Ed Davey, the most popular answer was “don’t know”.
Emma Levin, associate director at Savanta, said: “There is clearly a big gap in British politics for an opposition politician to properly take Keir Starmer to task. But that hasn’t happened yet.”
One former Tory cabinet member, who is yet to decide who to back in the leadership race, told HuffPost UK that the conference is an opportunity to show the public that the party still exists.
“Labour being so shit has just overwhelmed everything,” he said. “I’m genuinely surprised that they’re making a lot of very basic mistakes.
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“People have forgotten all about Rishi Sunak. It has all been about Labour and how bad they’ve been.”
The MP said he hoped that one of the four remaining candidates may emulate David Cameron, who used the party conference in 2005 to destroy his more-favoured rival, David Davis.
“This year’s conference is about bringing the leadership contest back to centre stage, and highlighting what the differences are between the contenders.
“We’ll be looking to see how they perform, whether they commit any gaffes and whether any of them can do a Cameron-esque performance that blows everyone else away.”
Under the rules of the contest, the remaining four will be whittled down to three and then two by a couple of ballots of Tory MPs when Westminster returns the week after next. It will then be up to the party’s members to decide the winner, who will be announced on November 2.
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The contenders: clockwise from top left, Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly
Former immigration minister Jenrick is now the bookies’ favourite, overtaking the previous frontrunner Badenoch.
One of his supporters said: “There is a lot of momentum behind Robert’s campaign, but he’s not taking anything for granted, he’s going to keep working hard to persuade MPs to support his positive case for change.
“He’s the only candidate who can win back voters on the left and right with his focus on the big issues and his serious, credible answers on the key challenges of the day, such as immigration, NHS reform and growing our economy.”
But a Badenoch campaign source insisted she was very much still in the race.
He said: “Kemi has been touring the country solidly for the past few months, going from Conservative association to Conservative association and getting an amazing reception from the members.
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“All the independent polling puts her way out ahead with our membership. This conference is a chance to show MPs she is the members’ choice – the one with the star quality to cut through as a leader of the opposition and take the fight to Labour.”
Cleverly, a former party chairman, foreign secretary and home secretary, is seen by many as the dark horse of the contest, with even a senior figure in a rival campaign admitting he is “under-priced” by the bookies.
A source on his campaign described the conference as “a home fixture”, given his popularity with the party’s rank-and-file.
“He is a party man who loves campaigning and engaging with the activists and members – and he gets a consistently good reception from them wherever he goes, mainly because he knows half of them,” the source said.
“His approach is to engage as much as possible with the members, to set out his pitch as the unity candidate and the most experienced candidate who is ready to hit the ground running from day one as leader.”
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It is barely 12 weeks since the Tories were reduced to just 121 MPs in the House of Commons, a statistical irrelevance when compared to Labour’s 411 and fewer than 50 seats ahead of the Lib Dems.
Whoever wins the leadership race faces a monumental task in trying to return the party to power at the next election.
Nevertheless, there remains a flicker of optimism among the party that the new Labour government’s struggles are not just a blip, but a sign that their seemingly-impregnable Commons majority could be wiped out at the first attempt.
They believe there is some light at the end of a very long tunnel. Whether it turns out to be an oncoming train remains to be seen.
“I will hold my hand up and say, I’m a huge fan of Elon Musk.
“I look at Twitter before he took over and after: there is a lot more free speech.
“Yes, there are many, many more things that I see on X, as he calls it, that I don’t like.
“But I also know that views are not suppressed the way that they were, that there was a cultural establishment – that was very left – that controlled quite a lot of discourse on that platform.”
Musk has turned X (formerly Twitter) upside down since his takeover almost two years ago.
More recently, he has repeated baseless conspiracy theories that there is a “two-tier” policing system in the UK, suggesting the far-right rioters seen in August ended up with a harsher punishment compared to previous pro-Palestine demonstrators.
Badenoch, who is currently competing against frontrunner Robert Jenrick,James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat for the title of Tory leader, was the only leadership hopeful to announce support for Musk in her interview with the Spectator.
Jenrick said he was “not going to be booking a tête-à-tête with Elon Musk any time soon”, while Cleverly said you have to be “very, very careful about curtailing voices that you disagree with”.
Tugendhat appeared to question how Musk has handled X, saying: “If you are running a platform that is entirely dominated by anonymous bots, is that freedom of speech – or just propaganda?
“If you are allowed to say whatever you like but you put your name to it, that’s freedom of speech. And it should be defended, absolutely.”
Fewer than 10% of the public think any of the Tory leadership candidates would make them favourites to win the next election, a damning poll has found.
The survey, by the More in Common think-tank, found that 34% of voters replied “none of them” when asked which of the six hopefuls would the Tories most likely to form the next government. Some 36% said they “don’t know”.
Even those who voted Tory in the last election are less-than-convinced by the choice on offer, the poll found.
Nearly one-third of them (32) said they “don’t know” which candidate will give the party the best chance of winning next time around, while 16% said “none of them”.
Cleverly again came top on 15%, with Patel second once more on 10%, with Badenoch on 9%, Jenrick and Tugendhat on 8% and Stride once again on 2%.
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The poll findings
More in Common
The poll also found that Patel is the only candidate recognised by more than half of the electorate.
Some 52% correctly identified the former home secretary when shown a picture of her, with 44% recognising Cleverly.
Badenoch came third with 37%, Jenrick was next on 21%, then Tugendhat on 19% and Stride with 12%.
Whoever wins also faces an uphill battle when they take on Keir Starmer, the poll found.
According to the public, none of them would make a better prime minister than the Labour leader, who enjoys a comfortable lead over each of his potential rivals.
Starmer is ahead of each of the candidates on who would make the better PM.
More in Common
The findings were published as Tory MPs prepare for the first ballot of the contest, when the number of candidates will be reduced from six to five.
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A second ballot will take place next week, after which the final four candidates will try to woo the party faithful at the Tory conference in Birmingham.
MPs will then choose the final two, who will be voted on my Tory members before the winner is announced on November 2.
The small rump of 121 Tory MPs who survived the party’s general election drubbing will return to Westminster on Monday with one item on their agenda – choosing the man or woman to take the fight to Keir Starmer for the next five years.
They will hardly have time to draw breath before the first ballot of the contest takes place 48 hours later, when one of the six candidates will be unceremoniously dumped by their colleagues.
Stride, a close ally of outgoing leader Rishi Sunak and the man who was rarely off our TV screens during the general election campaign, is seen as the most likely to fall at the first hurdle.
But many Tory MPs have told HuffPost UK that the outcome of Wednesday’s ballot is too close to call, and that Stride could well survive at the expense of a more fancied rival.
One former cabinet minister said: “I wouldn’t bet on Mel going in the first round. He’s got a hardcore of support in the parliamentary party and 15 or 20 MPs might be enough to get him through the first round.”
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A veteran MP added: “I think Rob and Kemi will come first and second, but any one of the other four could go on Wednesday. It will be very close and a few votes here and there could swing it.”
Although Badenoch remains the bookies’ favourite to emerge victorious in the end, many MPs have been surprised by her relative anonymity over the summer.
While her five rivals have been criss-crossing the country meeting party members and doing media interviews, the shadow communities secretary has made a virtue of taking two weeks off to recharge her batteries.
“Articles portraying politicians negatively for having a family life have done much to toxify the environment for MPs – we can do better than this,” Badenoch said earlier this month as she defended her decision to go on holiday with her family while parliament is in recess.
In a quote almost designed to annoy her rivals, a Badenoch ally told Guido Fawkes: “The general election campaign was long and hard and painful. I seriously doubt any Tory members, candidates or MPs will seriously begrudge the next leader of the Conservative Party having some time away with her family.”
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But one currently undecided Tory MP told HuffPost UK: “I think Kemi has under-performed so far. It’s been a very casual campaign. I think the story after Wednesday will be that she has performed below expectations.”
A shadow cabinet member said: “A few colleagues have expressed surprise at Kemi’s decision to go on holiday. We’re all knackered after the election, but if you want to be turning round the fortunes of the party you have to show that hunger.
“Some people are wondering whether she lacks the necessary drive. There have been questions about her work ethic in the past.
“The initial view was that Kemi would come racing out the blocks with big name endorsements to build up a lot of momentum, and there’s a lot of surprise that that hasn’t happened.”
But a Badenoch aide hit back: “The MPs complaining to you are backing other candidates and trying to make this a thing, but it isn’t.
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“Most MPs understand the value of taking a break after the election, and clearly the members care more about getting the best candidate rather than the one who did the most media in August. In the only truly independent poll by YouGov Kemi was the outright leader by a distance.”
“I think Rob and Kemi will come first and second, but any one of the other four could go on Wednesday.”
In that poll of Tory members, carried out a week ago, Badenoch had the backing of 24%, with Tugendhat second on 16%, Cleverly on 14%, Jenrick on 12%, Patel on 11% and Stride on just 2%.
Nevertheless, Jenrick – viewed as Badenoch’s main rival in the battle to be the standard bearer for the Tory right – has won plaudits among MPs for his campaign so far.
“I think Rob has got off to the best start, but it’s a long race,” said one backbencher.
“He’s definitely run the most professional, switched-on campaign, there’s no doubt about that.
“I would say at this moment, he is the frontrunner of six. But of course, that doesn’t mean he would be the frontrunner if he makes it to the final two.”
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Kemi Badenoch is the bookies’ favourite to be next Tory leader.
via Associated Press
The five who survive the first ballot on Wednesday will be reduced to four in another ballot of Tory MPs the week after.
They will then take part in a leadership beauty contest at the party’s annual conference in Birmingham at the end of September, after which MPs will whittle them down to the final two, with Tory members then having the final say on who should be the party’s new leader.
He or she will be announced on November 2, after which they will take on the Herculean task of trying to take the Conservatives back to power in 2029.
Whoever is chosen to succeed Rishi Sunak will be tasked with turning the Conservatives into a united, competent opposition who can convincingly present themselves to voters as a coherent, alternative government in five years’ time.
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The evidence of the last few years, in which the warring party has burned through four leaders and suffered its worst ever election defeat, suggest the chances of success are remote.
But one Badenoch backer told HuffPost UK: “I actually think the leadership contest so far has been quite a civil affair, which suggests that the party is ready to finally come together whoever wins. But time will tell.”
The contest to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party leader has officially begun, as Tories are gradually started to put themselves forward.
After enduring a historic defeat in the general election and walking away with just 121 seats in total, former PM Sunak said he was stepping back from the helm of the party when his successor was chosen.
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As the fight for the soul of the party begins, it remains to be seen whether it will end up going for a more centrist figure, or leaning further right.
Here’s who has officially announced their leadership bids, who is expected to – and how long this whole competition is going to go on for…
1. James Cleverly
Shadow home secretary James Cleverly
via Associated Press
The former home secretary (who now shadows the same role) announced his plan to run on Tuesday, a day before nominations actually opened.
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Seen as a moderate within the Conservative ranks, he has said the Conservatives need to “re-establish our reputation as the party who, in government, helps grow the economy, helps people achieve their goals, their dream and their aspirations”.
Alluding to the party’s historic loss at the ballot box, he said: “We must ditch the self-indulgent infighting and be ready to deliver when the next chance comes.”
According to a Savanta poll shared with Sky News, Cleverly has a net favourability of -9 with the general public.
He held several ministerial jobs under Boris Johnson before being appointed as the education secretary at the end of the ex-PM’s premiership.
He was foreign secretary for both Liz Truss and Sunak, and home secretary from November 2023 and July 2024.
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2. Tom Tugendhat
Shadow security minister Tom Tugendhat
Anadolu via Anadolu via Getty Images
Formerly the security minister, Tugendhat now shadows the same role on the other side of the House.
Although he launched his campaign with a bang by saying he would consider leaving the ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights), he is usually perceived as a moderate in the one nation wing of the party.
He argued in an article for The Telegraph that he would prepared to leave the ECHR if institutions make it harder to control the country’s borders, claiming this was a “common sense Conservative position” to take.
The former army officer suggested defence spending should be pulled up to 3% of GDP, and claimed he was running “to be the next Conservative prime minister”.
He is expected to try and appeal to Tory members more sympathetic to Reform UK.
His campaign manager, Tory MP Danny Kruger, said Jenrick has the “energy, temperament and policy agenda to take on our rivals and lead us back to power in five years.”
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He was not included in the Savanta poll because he did not run in the last leadership election in 2022.
Who else is expected to run?
Mel Stride, shadow work and pensions secretary, admitted at the weekend he was “considering” putting himself forward – he held onto his seat in the election by just 61 votes.
Former home secretary Suella Braverman and her predecessor Priti Patel are both expected to put themselves forward in the coming days.
Kemi Badenoch, shadow housing, communities and local government secretary, may also join the race.
Shadow health secretary Victoria Atkins was expected to run, but she said she would not be in a social media post.
Rishi Sunak announced his resignation as Tory Party leader when he lost the general election
via Associated Press
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How will the process work?
The nominations for the candidates opened on July 24.
Each candidate needs to secure backing from 10 other MPs by July 29 to make it to the next round.
But, only around 100 MPs will be able to support a chosen candidate.
That’s because MPs who are whips or who sit on the executive backbencher 1922 committee cannot support a candidate.
It means only 10 Tories – at most – will be able to move to progress past this point in the race.
If two or more candidates get through, a campaign will take place throughout the summer.
In September, MPs cast their votes on the remaining candidates.
The four with the most votes will be selected, and all offered a chance to speak at the Tory party conference, (from September 29 to October 2), and MPs will vote again.
The two with the most vote go through to the next hurdle.
The remaining pair will then have to go before the party members, who will vote on their favourite candidate in an online ballot which closes on October 31.
To vote, members must have been “active” when the whole contest opened in July, and been members for at least 90 days before the ballot closes.
The new leader and official leader of the opposition will be confirmed on November 2, and Sunak’s time leading the Conservatives will officially end.
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They will become the sixth leader of the Tory Party since 2016.
A top Tory has been called out for interrupting a cabinet minister and heckling jim from the dispatch box.
Shadow health secretary Victoria Atkins, who is expected to run for the party leadership, had to be rebuked by the deputy speaker for her “abominable” behaviour in the Commons.
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On Friday afternoon, the new environment, food and rural affairs secretary Steve Reed began his first speech as a member of government by talking about the Labour’s plan to “get Britain building again”.
It was part of the parliamentary debate on the King’s Speech.
But, he was interrupted repeatedly by Tories – first by Tory backbencher and former party chair Richard Holden, who stood up to indicate he wanted to speak.
But Reed refused to give way, saying there was not enough time for Holden’s speech and that other “members should have spoken for less time” earlier in the three-hour debate.
Reed then attacked the Conservatives for neglected parts of the country.
The shadow housing, communities and local government secretary, Kemi Badenoch, who is also expected to try out for Tory leader, then attempted to cut in.
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But Reed said: “I am very sorry but there are only three minutes left and I need to cover the points that have been raised. They had their time.”
He resumed by talking about how Labour plans to increase the number of mental health professionals.
Atkins then jumped up and leant across the despatch box while shouting at Reed, seemingly irate.
The deputy speaker Sir Christopher Chope had to shout: “Order. The right honourable member for Louth and Horncastle [Atkins] has behaved abominably.”
According to The Guardian, a spokesperson for Atkins’ office said: “Conservative MPs were trying to get answers about their budgets for farming, flood defences and food security, which the minister ignored.
“She will always stand up fearlessly for farmers and our rural area in Westminster, even if that means a rare admonishment from the Chair.”
Reed wrapped up his speech by reeling off the “Tories’ failure”, calling his opponents “the party of broken dreams”.
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Closing the debate, Reed said: “After 14 years of chaos, there is once again hope for our environment, hope for our countryside and hope for our rural communities. I welcome the king’s speech, I recommend it to this house.”
Over the weekend, clips of this exchange were picked up by other MPs….
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This happened during my first experience of a debate in the chamber. The behaviour of several Conservative MPs was appalling. After the debate, I asked a group of them why they behaved that way. I was accused of rudeness myself for having the temerity to ask. Absolutely shocking. https://t.co/PuS57iyTqI
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Kemi Badenoch clashed with a Times Radio presenter after being accused of “stoking the culture wars” over trans issues.
The business secretary has called on people to give examples of how public bodies use incorrect guidance on access to single-sex spaces.
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She said she wanted to “tackle any confusion” which there might be on the matter.
Appearing on Times Radio this morning, presenter Aasmah Mir asked Badenoch: “What happens if there are very few examples? The reason I ask that is because clearly there are some people who might be confused.
“Is this just stoking the culture wars? This is something that’s very tiny, doesn’t really happen that often.”
But the minister hit back: “I do take issue with you calling this culture wars. Four years ago, when I was alerting people to the danger of puberty blockers, and a lot of the issues that we had in clinics, people like you were accusing me of fighting culture wars.
“I think it’s really important that especially when journalists talk about this, that you take the heat out. It’s not helpful. It is really unhelpful to call this culture wars. We’re trying to do the right thing by children and women in particular. Please don’t call it culture wars.”
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Aasmah Mir replied: “The two things are they’re very different, aren’t they? I mean, we’re talking about puberty blockers [and that] is very different to toilets, isn’t it?”
Badenoch said: “The point I’m making is that when politicians are trying to do the right thing, I think it’s important that you take it at face value rather than casting aspersions on the motivation.”
Shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson said Badenoch “does love nothing more than a culture war and it is so transparent what she is doing”.
“She is pitching to Conservative members for the leadership contest to come in the Conservative Party,” she said. “And frankly, our country deserves a lot better than it always being about the Conservative Party.”
A spokesman for TPP, the tech firm Hester runs, said he “accepts that he was rude about Diane Abbott in a private meeting several years ago but his criticism had nothing to do with her gender nor colour of skin”.
Downing Street repeatedly refused today to call the remarks “racist”, insisting instead that they were “unacceptable”.
A spokeswoman for the prime minister, who spent the day working in No.10, told reporters: “What is alleged and reported to have been said would clearly have been unacceptable, but we are not going to characterise further alleged comments from source reporting.”
But Badenoch broke ranks with the PM to make her views clear on X (formerly Twitter).
She said: “Hester’s 2019 comments, as reported, were racist.
“I welcome his apology. Abbott and I disagree on a lot. But the idea of linking criticism of her, to being a black woman is appalling. It’s never acceptable to conflate someone’s views with the colour of their skin.
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“MPs have a difficult job balancing multiple interests -often under threats of intimidation as we saw recently in parliament.
“Some people make flippant comments without thinking of this context. This is why there needs to be space for forgiveness where there is contrition.”
MPs have a difficult job balancing multiple interests -often under threats of intimidation as we saw recently in parliament.
Some people make flippant comments without thinking of this context.
This is why there needs to be space for forgiveness where there is contrition (2/2)
Meanwhile, health minister Maria Caulfield told the BBC: “I condemn these comments – I personally do find them racist- it’s not something we should be kind of excusing in any way.”
The comments were at odds with fellow ministers Graham Stuart and Mel Stride, both of whom sought to play down the row earlier today.
In his first public comments on the row, Hester said “racism … is a poison that has no place in public life”.
He added: “The UK benefits immensely from the rich diversity of people – like my parents – who had roots in another land, religion and culture.
“We should celebrate those differences which have made us the world’s most successful multi-ethnic, multi-faith democracy. And we should have the confidence to discuss our differences openly and even playfully without seeking to cause offence.”
Having quoted me accurately saying “I abhor racism” @guardian newspaper has just asked me to confirm that I made these following remarks at the same meeting 5 years ago that they reported on yesterday. They claim that I told staff:
In a statement, Diane Abbott said: “It is frightening. I live in Hackney and do not drive, so I find myself, at weekends, popping on a bus or even walking places more than most MPs.
“I am a single woman and that makes me vulnerable anyway. But to hear someone talking like this is worrying.”
“The fact that two MPs have been murdered in recent years makes talk like this all the more alarming.”
He said a civil servant asked him to delay compensation payments to victims of the Horizon IT scandal to save the government money ahead of the election.
Staunton also said Badenoch told him he was being removed from his job in January because someone had to “take the rap” for the affair.
And he accused her of failing to apologise to him after he first found out he was losing his job from Sky News.
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But Badenoch denied all three allegations made by Staunton, who she removed from his job in January.
She said there was “no evidence whatsoever” to back up his claim he had been asked to delay payments.
“The reality is my department has done everything it can to speed up compensation payments to victims,” she said.
The business secretary told MPs Staunton was dismissed not to “take the rap” but because there were “serious concerns about his behaviour”.
“While he was in post a formal investigation was launched into allegations regarding to Mr Staunton’s conduct – this included serious matters such as bullying,” she said.
And she said rather than failing to apologise for the way he found out he had lost his job she had been at “great pains to make my concerns about his conduct private”.
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“He has chosen to spread a series of falsehoods, provide made up anecdotes to journalists and leak discussions held in confidence,” she said.
“I would hope most people reading the interview in yesterday’s Sunday Times will see it what it was – a blatant attempt to seek revenge following dismissal.”
Badenoch said a formal record of her phone call with Staunton made by officials – when she told him he was being sacked – would be published.
The Horizon IT scandal saw hundreds of Post Office workers wrongly accused of fraud. More than 4,000 people are in line to receive compensation.
The Post Office prosecuted more than 700 workers for fraud and false accounting based on data from its faulty Fujitsu computer system between 2000 and 2015.
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Hundreds received criminal records, and had to do community service, wear electronic tags or serve jail time.
Hardline US presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis has praised Kemi Badenoch for her fight against so-called “woke ideology”.
The Florida governor met the business secretary on a trip to Britain ahead of a potential run against Donald Trump to be the next Republican candidate.
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He singled out Badenoch for her views on Britain’s cultural debates, during an interview with The Sunday Telegraph.
The paper claimed his allies hope that Badenoch could be the next Margaret Thatcher to their new Ronald Reagan.
DeSantis praised the senior Tory, who is also minister for women and equalities, for her outspoken views.
He described “woke ideology” as “a war on the truth”, telling the paper: “When institutions get infected by woke ideology, it really corrupts the institutions.
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“We look at woke infiltrating schools as a problem, woke infiltrating bureaucracies as a problem and woke infiltrating corporate America as a problem. We say that Florida is where woke goes to die.”
DeSantis said Badenoch “complimented what we are doing in Florida” and added: “I commend her and her efforts to make sure that this is not corrupting British society.”
In a post on Twitter following the meeting, DeSantis said she is such a “strong, outspoken leader in the United Kingdom”.
“We share the same goal of spurring economic growth for our people and I look forward to continuing our relationship,” he added.
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.@CaseyDeSantis and I enjoyed meeting MP Kemi Badenoch, who is such a strong, outspoken leader in the United Kingdom.
We share the same goal of spurring economic growth for our people and I look forward to continuing our relationship. pic.twitter.com/hAwEw3BEyL
DeSantis has not announced his intention to run for the Republican nomination but is widely expected to do so.
In his interview, he also addressed speculation over his potential run at the White House, telling the paper: “I’m going to go through our legislative session, get the people’s business done. I’m still in the midst of that.
“I’ve got about another week or so of that, and then I have the Budget and everything. I’m not going to make any decision before then.
“But the end of that time is coming, it’s closer now than it was six months ago. So just stay tuned.”
