So is Donald Trump an election liability? That was the question being posed by Republicans on Wednesday as the dust settled on a disappointing set of US mid-term election results.

A triumphant Republican “red wave” was predicted thanks to the traditional beating the party of the sitting president is handed down, allied to stubbornly-high inflation hitting voters in the pocket and Joe Biden’s grim approval ratings. In the event, the wave was more of a ripple.

While the final numbers might not be known for weeks, the fact remains that Biden’s Democrats could actually maintain a voting majority in the Senate, and control of the House is still not declared, as victories in key governors’ races were celebrated. It was not supposed to be this way.

The Republican post-mortem began with the part Trump played, and the conspiracy-laden politics he has inspired and supported. The ex-president gave his full-throated endorsement to nearly 40 candidates, many who championed his Make America Great Again agenda, including the discredited theory that the 2020 election was compromised by fraud. Many under-performed – as evidenced by the “split-ticket” voting that saw more moderate Republicans in the same states do markedly better than Trump acolytes.

“Every Republican in America this morning is waking up sick to their stomach,” said Republican strategist David Urban, a former Trump advisor. “Live by Trump, die by Trump.”

Trump’s influence on the vote goes back further than taking the stage with his favourites. He went against the wishes of party leaders and picked candidates he felt were the most loyal to him, and there were generally stronger GOP alternatives than the candidates Trump chose.

In New Hampshire, Don Bolduc, a Republican who bought into conspiracy theories, lost to incumbent Democratic Maggie Hassan, setting expectations low for Republicans in other states.

And in Pennsylvania, GOP Senate candidate and former TV host Mehmet Oz lost to Democrat John Fetterman, who is recovering from a stroke, in another blow for a Trump pick. Democrat Josh Shapiro also easily beat Doug Mastriano, a Christian nationalist and extremist election denier who Trump also endorsed, in the race for Pennsylvania governor.

Trump candidates also fared poorly in House races. In Ohio, Republican JR Majewski, a poorly-vetted candidate who lied about his Air Force experience, lost to longtime Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur. Trump’s blessing helped elevate Majewski in the Republican primary against two state lawmakers who were more likely to beat Kaptur.

In Michigan, early results showed Democrat Hillary Scholten leading Trump-backed Republican John Gibbs in a district represented by Republican Peter Meijer, who lost a primary to Gibbs after he voted with Republicans to impeach Trump.

There were two bright spots. Republican JD Vance, who advanced out of a GOP primary with Trump’s help, easily won his Senate race in Ohio. Another Trump Senate nominee, Ted Budd, won in North Carolina.

But as Trump-backed candidates flailed, Florida governor Ron DeSantis scored a resounding 20 percentage points victory with his brand of “competent Trumpism”. A tilt at the Republican presidential nomination is now a near certainty. Notably, Trump did not endorse DeSantis and has even begun to troll his potential rival, giving him the nickname “Ron De-sanctimonious”.

The huge win, coupled with the struggles for Trump-endorsed candidates elsewhere, has already prompted the governor’s many fans in conservative media to hail him one of the bigger winners of this year’s election cycle.

Badly, it appears. The New York Times reported Trump was “livid” about the results, with his fury in particular directed at the loss by Oz in Pennsylvania. He blamed people who recommended that he endorsed the TV doctor, including his wife, Melania Trump.

Is Trump cooked?

In seems unlikely, though, that Trump will shuffle off into the shadows as a result of ballot. Trump is arguably still the most powerful figure in his party, and next Tuesday he has promised a “major” announcement, which seems likely to be the confirmation he intends to run in 2024.

“I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago,” Trump said on Monday night before the midterm results.

Perhaps the only thing standing in Trump’s way is his own ego: if he recognises he can’t win either the Republican nomination or the presidential race, perhaps he finds a convenient excuse to avoid being seen as a loser again.