Shock Poll Shows Reform UK On Course To Win Next General Election

Reform UK are on course to win the next general election, according to a shock mega-poll.

Nigel Farage’s party would emerge with the most MPs in what would be a major political earthquake.

The More in Common think-tank asked more than 16,000 people who they would vote for if the election – expected in 2029 – was taking place tomorrow.

It showed that Reform, Labour and the Conservatives all have around 24% support among the electorate.

Using the so-called “MRP” method to give a seat-by-sea breakdown of that result, it showed Reform would have 180 MPs, a staggering 175 more than they got elected last July.

Labour would lose 246 seats leave them on just 165, the same number as the Tories.

Keir Starmer’s party would suffer “historic losses” in traditional heartlands in Wales, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire, with 10 cabinet ministers losing their seats.

Among the big names who are at risk are deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, health secretary Wes Streeting, chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden and home secretary Yvette Cooper.

The Lib Dems would lose five seats to leave them on 67, while the SNP would once again re-emerge as the biggest party in Scotland, surging by 26 to leave them with 35 MPs.

A total of 10 independent MPs would be elected, according to the poll, with Plaid Cymru up one on five seats, with the Greens unchanged on four.

The result throws up the possibility of Farage becoming prime minister at the head of Reform-Tory coalition.

However, Labour could also try to piece together a rainbow coalition with the Lib Dems, SNP and Greens.

Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director, said: “We are a long way from a General Election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand, but what we can say for certain is that as of today British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level. The coalition for change that elected Keir Starmer’s government has splintered right and left.

“Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this parliament so far, with our model suggesting that they could well become the largest party in parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago.

“Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome.”

Tryl said Labour “find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the government’s early missteps”.

He added: “The Conservatives meanwhile may breathe a sigh of relief they haven’t been entirely wiped out, but despite Labour’s unpopularity their seat total would only return to 1997 levels and they would suffer further losses to Reform UK, while winning back few of their Liberal Democrat losses in the home counties.

“But the truth is the nature of a splintered electorate more than anything means elections for the next few years will be highly unpredictable with candidates winning on small shares of the vote and knife-edge results.

“The test for all three main parties will be which one can prove to the electorate that they can really deliver the change the public so desperately wants to see.”

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Can Nigel Farage Break Down Labour’s Re-Built Red Wall – Or Will Voters ‘Smell His Bull****’?

Nigel Farage can hardly be accused of not making his intentions clear.

Reform are parking their tanks on the lawns of the Red Wall,” he told activists and candidates at a working men’s club in County Durham last week.

“Today is the first day I’ve said that, but I absolutely mean it – we’re here, and we’re here to stay.”

With local elections – and the crunch Runcorn by-election – looming on May 1, Farage is turning on the charm as he tries to woo traditional Labour voters to the Reform cause.

Somewhat bizarrely for a man who has made no secret in the past of his admiration for Margaret Thatcher, Farage is now talking about “reindustrialising” the UK, demanding the nationalisation of British Steel and even cosying up to the trade unions.

It is all part of a strategy of winning over those Labour voters in the North and the Midlands who backed Brexit in 2016, supported Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019 and then, disillusioned, returned to the Labour fold last year.

Millions of votes and dozens of Red Wall seats are up for grabs at the next general election as Farage sets his sights on 10 Downing Street.

Former Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, now chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, believes Farage is on a hiding to nothing, however.

He told HuffPost UK: “Northerners aren’t daft and will smell Farage’s bullshit from a mile away.

“Farage has spent his whole political career backing Thatcherite economics which devastated industrial communities. He opposes workers’ rights and decent pay rises. It’s clear as day the NHS will never be safe in Reform hands.

“All Reform offers the so-called Red Wall is a route to helping the Tories back into power, leaving working people paying the price.”

A No.10 source, meanwhile, said: “While Nigel Farage was in CountyDurham pretending to care about the working class, [business secretary] Johnny Reynolds was literally at Immingham Port watching the raw materials being unloaded to keep British Steel going.

“And when the PM visited Scunthorpe he got a standing ovation from the workforce, so this idea that we can’t win there now is nonsense.”

Nigel Farage shows a mug that was presented to him before signing a book of condolence for Margaret Thatcher after her death on 2013.
Nigel Farage shows a mug that was presented to him before signing a book of condolence for Margaret Thatcher after her death on 2013.

PAUL ELLIS via AFP via Getty Images

Exclusive analysis for HuffPost UK by pollsters Ipsos shows there is potential for Reform to make real inroads into Labour’s heartlands.

In former manufacturing and mining areas in the north of England and south Wales, there is a strong feeling among voters that they have been left behind by successive Tory and Labour governments.

Jobs, policing, public transport and affordable housing are all areas of concern for these voters, while only 24% think public services will improve in the next two to three years.

Gideon Skinner, the firm’s senior director of UK politics, said there is “fertile ground of public discontent for Reform UK to take advantage of, both nationally and in their target areas”.

“In particular, people are attracted to Reform because they see it as a party that will deliver change, and keep their promises,” he said. “They have a leader in Farage who is seen as strong with a lot of personality, who understands the problems facing Britain – especially on getting immigration under control – and who represents traditional British values.”

So far, Labour’s strategy for dealing with the Reform threat has been to highlight Farage’s past comments about moving the NHS to a French-style insurance model and to accuse the party of being “Putin’s poodles”.

Farage’s well-known support for Donald Trump is also seen as another weak spot, something he has appeared to acknowledge by criticising the US president in recent weeks.

Skinner added: “Reform UK still have work to do to correct some of the more negative views about them, which makes these local elections an important test for them.

“Nationally, while they lead on immigration and are neck-and-neck on crime, they trail Labour on other key issues like the NHS, the economy, housing, transport, and education.

“People are worried that a Nigel Farage-led government would be divisive, too close to Donald Trump, and that Reform doesn’t have enough talent to build a competent administration. And overall Keir Starmer still leads Nigel Farage in the public’s mind as best prime minister.”

One Labour Party veteran said: “While our attacks on Farage about the NHS are not the silver bullet, they are cutting through and damaging Reform. It is definitely better than calling them far right and putting our heads in the sand.

“There isn’t much point going after Farage in the way there wasn’t with Boris; he needs to blow himself up, and he will. The Reform attack needs to be nuanced and should develop into a wider critique of their bonkers economic policies, or lack of them to be more precise.”

Keir Starmer received a hero's welcome when he visited Scunthorpe after the government stepped in to save British Steel.
Keir Starmer received a hero’s welcome when he visited Scunthorpe after the government stepped in to save British Steel.

via Associated Press

The local elections on May 1 will tell us more about which of Reform’s main rivals has more to worry about at the moment.

The Tories are defending more than 900 seats and, by Kemi Badenoch’s own admission, are heading for a bad night. Around 600 fewer Labour seats are up for grabs, meaning they won’t sustain as much damage.

Whatever happens, it seems certain that Reform are on course for major gains – as a Survation poll for The Sun appeared to confirm last week.

But an ally of Keir Starmer told HuffPost UK that the political landscape will look very different come the next general election.

“The Tories and Reform are either going to have to kill the other or merge before the next election,” he said. “If Reform kill the Tories, then the choice is whether you want Keir or Farage to be prime minister.

“We win in that scenario because millions of people who cannot stand the thought of Farage in No.10 will vote Labour to stop it happening.

“But if the Tories kill Reform then that is potentially a problem for us because they are more likely to unite that centre-right and right-wing vote.

“Basically, the people who voted Reform last year are never going to vote Labour. We need to attract those who didn’t vote Reform but could drift off to them next time.”

The defining battle of the next four years in British politics could well be whether or not Labour succeeds in preventing Nigel Farage from painting the Red Wall turquoise.

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Tory Splits Erupt Over Kemi Badneoch’s Call For Council Coalitions With Reform UK

Kemi Badenoch has been slammed by a senior Tory after she appeared to give the green light for Conservative councillors to do coalition deals with Reform UK.

Andy Street said the Tories “should have nothing to do with” Nigel Farage’s party.

Badenoch raised eyebrows last week when she said she would not have a problem with Conservative and Reform councillors joining forces to run town halls after the local elections on May 1.

She said: “What I’m telling local leaders across the country [is] they have to do what is right for the people in their local area.”

But in a major humiliation for the Tory leader, her offer was quickly rejected by Farage himself.

On BBC1′s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg this morning, Street, the former mayor of the West Midlands, also dismissed Badenoch’s suggestion.

He said: “It’s not my decision in any way, but my feeling on it is that we should have nothing to do with alliances with them, just as Kemi has said about the national situation.

“We’ve got to put in front of voters the choice – a moderate, centre-right Conservative Party against a populist party that do not have a policy answer to any of the big questions.”

On the same programme, shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith backed his leader.

He said: “There’s always been, after elections, for local councillors themselves to decide how they run the local council. If that is needed, then historically people have done deals on a local level with all sorts of groups.

“I think the Lib Dems are quite extremist – whenever they get into power they want four-day weeks and veganism – but no one should take that off the table because those are decisions for local councillors.”

He added: “I think Kemi is reflecting the reality that we have local democracy and if people stand for local councils and they want to do the best for their communities, then they will have to, in light of how people have voted, work out what the right combination is.”

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Starmer Accused Of Dancing To ‘Farage’s Tune’ With Small Boats Crackdown

Keir Starmer has been accused of “dancing” to Nigel Farage’s tune with his latest promise to cut back on illegal immigration.

While hosting more than 40 countries at a landmark illegal migration summit today in London, the prime minister unveiled £33 million of funding to help set up an international unit of the Crown Prosecution Service.

He said 24,000 people “who have no right to be here” were returned under Labour, which he claimed was the “highest return rate for eight years”.

He said the UK has been seen as a “soft touch on migration”.

Starmer also called on an international effort to stop the people-smuggling gangs, saying they should be treated as a global security threat, similar to terrorism.

But his announcements were soon slammed as “inhumane and ineffective”.

The Green Party’s co-leader Carla Denyer said in a statement: “The UK’s inhumane and ineffective approach to migration is costing lives, and yet Keir Starmer is choosing to dance to Nigel Farage’s tune rather than making the common sense changes needed to make the system safer and fairer.

“We urgently need to introduce safe routes for people fleeing war, violence or persecution to seek safety in the UK so that people aren’t forced into the hands of people smugglers.

“It’s shameful that this Labour government continues to ignore the only solution that will prevent people from dying during dangerous journeys to the UK, all because they are running scared of Farage’s Reform party.”

Reform UK leader Farage quickly criticised Starmer’s speech too.

In a message on X, he said: “Over 30,000 migrants have crossed the Channel since Labour came to power. More illegals crossed in the first three months of 2025 than the same period in 2024.

“He promised to smash the gangs but he’s smashing Rishi Sunak’s record instead.”

The Conservatives, on the other hand, claimed Labour should have kept their Rwanda deterrent – even though only four volunteers were ever deported via the scheme.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: “The government’s plan to ‘smash the gangs’ already lies in tatters. We are about to see 30,000 illegal channel crossings since election reached this week, a 31% increase.

“This year so far has been the worst on record. This is a direct consequence of the government cancelling the Rwanda deterrent before it even started.

“Other countries, including Germany, Italy and the even the European Commission are looking at offshore processing as a deterrent, but Starmer’s Labour government has gone in the opposite direction. He has lost control of our borders as a result.”

Border security minister Angela Eagle told the media this morning Labour were “open-minded” when it came to looking at offshore processing.

But Philp added: “Today’s conference will make no difference to that – as the NCAA themselves said, law enforcement alone cannot stop illegal immigration. You need a removals deterrent.

“And Yvette Cooper admitted yesterday that the government is simply crossing its fingers and praying for bad weather to stop illegal migration across the channel. That is not a plan.”

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Nigel Farage Calls Rupert Lowe’s Actions ‘Disgusting’ And ‘Contemptible’

Nigel Farage called Rupert Lowe’s alleged behaviour “disgusting” and “contemptible” in leaked WhatsApp messages, according to the BBC.

Lowe was suspended from Farage’s Reform UK earlier this month following accusations of workplace bullying and threats of physical violence towards the party chairman. He denies all the allegations against him.

Reform UK’s decision to oust the MP for Great Yarmouth, hire a KC to investigate the claims and report him to the police came hours after Lowe told the Daily Mail that Reform was “a protest party” led by “the Messiah” – Farage.

Reform has insisted that its suspension of Lowe is completely separate to the MP’s criticisms of party leader Farage.

Even so, the two men have exchanged furious insults since the incident, with Lowe accusing Farage of a “malicious witch hunt”.

The BBC has now reported that, in an private exchange shortly after the then-Reform UK MP publicly criticised the party’s leadership, Farage accused Lowe of “damaging the party just before elections”.

Speaking with a source who worked recently with Lowe, Farage said the Great Yarmouth MP was “damaging the party just before elections. Disgusting.”

The Clacton MP went on: “He is contemptible. Thousands of people working hard for May 1st. The KC inquiry was the right thing to do no question. Reputation of the party must be protected.”

He added: “In 30 years I have never seen worse.”

Reform UK’s first major electoral test since securing five MPs in July will come in the May local elections. The party is hoping to win big after significant success in the polls where it has rivalled Labour and the Tories.

Responding to the leaked messages, Farage told the BBC: “The suspension was to protect the party, simple. The newspaper attack on Reform UK is separate but dreadful.”

But Lowe claimed this text exchange proved the Daily Mail interview was the reason behind his removal from the party.

“That interview is why they designed and launched their horrific smear campaign against my name. It is evil behaviour,” he told the broadcaster. “Nigel Farage must never be prime minister. All I have done is tell the truth, and I will continue to do so.”

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In messages, uncovered through a BBC investigation, Nigel Farage personally admits the real reason why he removed me from Reform.

It was because I raised reasonable and constructive criticisms about Reform structure, policy, and communication in the Daily Mail interview.

That… pic.twitter.com/0gifZ8Az2V

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) March 20, 2025

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In messages, uncovered through a BBC investigation, Nigel Farage personally admits the real reason why he removed me from Reform.

It was because I raised reasonable and constructive criticisms about Reform structure, policy, and communication in the Daily Mail interview.

That… pic.twitter.com/0gifZ8Az2V

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) March 20, 2025

The BBC report came after it emerged that Farage had travelled to the US for his eighth trip since being elected to represent Clacton in July.

He was scheduled to be the keynote speaker at a fundraiser for Florida Republicans’ ‘Disruptors’ dinner. Seats cost up to $25,000 (£19,000).

Meanwhile, as Farage repeatedly denies that Reform is “riven with in-fighting”, a Tory shadow minister, Greg Smith, has hinted at a partnership between the Conservatives and Reform UK.

Even though Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has repeatedly rejected such an idea, Smith He told TalkTV: “I think if we want to get rid of socialism from this country, there may well be a point where the right-of-centre parties have to play nicely.”

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