Russian forces have “likely” suffered up to 200,000 casualties since the war in Ukraine began a year ago, according to the latest UK intelligence.
While Moscow is expected to launch a renewed offensive on its European neighbour next week – in a symbolic act to honour the 12 months since the invasion – the UK’s ministry of defence has shone a bleak light on the human cost of the war.
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According to the MoD, there have been between 175,000 and 200,000 Russian casualties in the last year, including between 40,000 and 60,000 deaths.
UK intelligence pointed to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s attempts to bolster up his forces six months ago, by introducing “partial mobilisation”.
It said: “The Russian casualty rate has significantly increased since September 2022, when ‘partial mobilisation’ was imposed.”
This was meant to introduce an extra 300,000 reservists to fight in his war.
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At the time, it sparked widespread protests in Russia with more than 1,000 people detained, with many others trying to flee the country.
The MoD also warned at the time that this hastily mobilised group would have a “high attrition rate”.
Now, as it discusses the expected death rate among Russian ranks, the MoD claimed: “By modern standards these figures represent a high ratio of personnel killed compared to those wounded.
“This is almost certainly due to extremely rudimentary medical provision across much of the force.
“Artillery has almost certainly inflicted the majority of Russia’s casualties.”
After almost 10 months of war, the impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine’s children is truly devastating.
The UN believes around 400 children have been killed and more than 700 have been left with life-changing injuries since Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine.
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And, as the war is ongoing – making it harder to gauge the full impact of the atrocities in Ukraine – agencies believe the real figures are much higher.
Three Ukrainian photographers – Anastasia Vlasova, Alina Smutko, and Nina Sologubenko – have captured how children are coping this Christmas for Save The Children.
According to one mother, Oksana*, her eight-year-old daughter’s hair has started to turn grey from the stress.
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“Look at my elder daughter, she is only eight and she has grey hair. I do not tell her, but when I braid her hair, I burst into tears, because she is a little child and they saw such things,” she told the photographers.
“It was very scary sitting in the basement, knowing that if – God forbid – the house was hit, you would be buried. You worried about yourself at that point, you’re scared for your children.”
Twelve-year-old Karina* also told the photographers: “There’s going to be something lacking. You know, the atmosphere of Ukrainian Christmas.”
Olha*, mother of seven, told Save The Children: “This year the mood isn’t festive. We just wish the war would be over, to live peacefully.
“We don’t want anything, no Christmas, no New Year. How can we celebrate? People are dying.”
She said that at night they “fear every rustle”.
Here are just seven images which provide a snapshot into the lives of Ukrainian children under attack from Russia right now.
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The difficulties Ukrainian children are facing during this tumultuous period has not gone unnoticed in Kyiv.
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy shared a video address on the first day of the new school year back in September. He said: “They stole part of your childhood, part of your youth…
“But you are free. You always will be. So be worthy of your will – and of our Ukraine.”
*Names have been changed to protect their identity.
Here are three of the major events which unfolded over the last seven days.
1. Counteroffensive
Ukraine long-awaited counterattack in the south began this week, as the Ukrainian armed forces tried to take back territories seized by Russia.
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It comes after spending several weeks building up the attacks on Russia’s supply lines, weakening Vladimir Putin’s army behind the scenes.
Ukraine’s military hit out in eight directions at the same time, and claim to have broken through their opponent’s “first line of defence” and retaking small Ukrainian villages.
However, the second line of defence has been much harder to break.
Greece’s honorary consul in Kherson, Pantelis Boubouras told Al Jazeera: “The villages along the front line – these the Ukrainians broke easily. In the second line of defence, there was blood spilled. I heard 1,000 Ukrainians and 1,500 Russians [were killed].”
He added: “The second line isn’t falling easily. There are 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers, they’ve been there for five months and are very well-equipped and dug in.”
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Russia has denied that any territory lost, and claims 1,200 Ukrainians died in a single day during Ukraine’s attempts to recapture some areas.
But the Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Vadym Skibitsky said Russia is looking to mobilise 90,000 troops in the country, after losing more than 47,000 throughout the war.
These would likely be made up of volunteers, reservists, and soldiers recruited over the summer, although low morale is thought to be affecting Russian ranks.
The offensive also came after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned: “If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee.”
But, for the most part, the country is keeping its cards close to its chest when it comes to this offensive.
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It’s also worth remembering that this is not the case everywhere in Ukraine.
Citizens are still under attack elsewhere – Kharkiv city, in the northeast, is facing intense shelling, particularly in residential areas.
2. Mysterious death
Ravil Maganov, the chair of Russia’s largest private oil company, fell to his death from a Moscow Central Clinic hospital on Thursday.
The independent news agency, Interfax, claimed he “fell from a window at Central clinical hospital,” and then “died from injuries sustained”.
As head of Lukoil, he was one of the country’s business elite.
Maganov supposedly “passed away following a severe illness” but the news agency did not say what he was being treated for.
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Amid conflicting reports about his health prior to his death, it’s worth pointing out that Maganov is just one of several people with ties to the Russian energy industry who has died under unusual circumstances over the last six months.
One of the former top manages of Maganov’s company was found dead in May.
However, none of the deaths have been considered murders.
Lukoil was one of the few Russian energy companies which criticised the invasion of Ukraine, having called for a ceasefire just a week after it began.
Maganov also died on the same day Putin went to visit the same hospital to mark the death of former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
It comes as the consequences of the war are starting to play out within Russia’s energy industry too. The Kremlin briefly cut off all Russian gas exports to Europe this week to squeeze countries which are providing financial aid to Ukraine throughout the war.
However, this does will Russia will have seen a fall in profits, on top of the extensive list of sanctions from the rest of the world imposed against it.
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3. Memes
In true 2022 fashion, memes have become a key part of keeping morale up for many Ukrainians over the last six months.
But it was only this week that the official Twitter account for the Defence of Ukraine (the government branch) retweeted one.
It wrote: “We usually express gratitude to our internationals partners for the security assistance. But today we want to give a shoutout to a unique entity – North Atlantic Fella Organisation #NAFO.
“Thanks for your fierce fight against [the] Kremlin’s propaganda and trolls. We salute you, fellas!”
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NAFO is a play on NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Ukraine is not part of Nato but did attempt to join.
Many believe that it was fears Ukraine was getting too close to western organisations such as Nato and the EU (for which it is now officially a candidate for membership) prompted Putin to launch his invasion. After all, the Russian president did demand that Ukraine give up its attempts to join Nato just before the war.
But NAFO is not just a parody of a defence organisation, but uses memes to mock Russia’s military performance and take down its attempts to spread misinformation about the war online.
Always using an image of a Shiba Inu dog (from an older meme), the organisation has no formal name or leadership, according to The Economist, but activists online rally together to use it.
Jeremy Fleming, the head of the GCHQ, recently claimed that Putin has already lost the information war in the West. Writing for The Economist, Shashank Joshi concluded: “The self-appointed warriors of NAFO might claim a little credit for that outcome.”
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We usually express gratitude to our international partners for the security assistance. But today we want to give a shout-out to a unique entity – North Atlantic Fellas Organization #NAFO. Thanks for your fierce fight against kremlin’s propaganda &trolls. We salute you, fellas! pic.twitter.com/AfDnXf7pfc
Then, fashion magazine Vogue put the couple on its cover.
While Zelenska led the shoot – and in one photo was photoshopped into a scene with Ukrainian soldiers – she also posed with her husband in his army clothes for a couple of other images.
And something about the shoot rattled some on Twitter:
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However, many Ukrainians on the same platform have been keen to defend Zelenska and remind these critics what war really looks like.
In a Twitter thread, Oleksandra Povoroznyk pointed out: “Most of the English-speaking people on the internet are lucky enough to have no clue what a war actually looks like.”
Through a follow-up exchange with HuffPost UK, she added that she was “genuinely surprised that so many non-Ukrainians saw the photoshoot as something controversial”, and not a “reflection of how strong Ukrainian women actually are”.
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“Most Ukrainians I’ve spoke to see the photos and the interview as an important part of what Zelenska’s doing to draw more attention to our country,” Povoroznyk explained.
“In fact, a lot of Ukrainian women are super happy that Zelenska wasn’t portrayed as some kind of dainty and shy tradwife [traditional wife] hiding behind her husband.”
She added that “a lot of Eastern European women are portrayed as very stereotypically feminine”, even though there are still female volunteers in the Ukrainian army right now.
Povoroznyk, who is based in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv according to her Twitter profile, said, “nothing about the photoshoot is ‘glamourising’ the war”.
Instead, she said it was a “pretty accurate representation of what the war feels and looks like to many Ukrainians who are lucky enough to be in cities controlled by Ukraine”.
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She claimed that while it was clear those in occupied cities would face a different reality, people in cities are trying to find “some kind [of] war-life balance”.
The Ukrainian explained that plenty of people still do their best to work, to go out with friends, get their nails done, put makeup on under the “constant threat of air strikes”.
She added: “And yet we keep going, because there’s literally nothing else we can do. And sure, a photoshoot for Vogue might not seem like work for the average lurker on Twitter, but it is part of Zelenska’s duties as First Lady.
“Her job is to keep the world’s attention on Ukraine, and that’s why she ’s giving interviews and speeches and yes, even having her photos taken by huge publications like Vogue.”
She also pointed out in a subsequent tweet that Britain’s Queen – back when she was Princess Elizabeth – also took part in photoshoots during World War 2, to raise awareness of the war effort.
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Lots of foreigners are baffled by this amazing digital cover shot by Annie Leibovitz for @voguemagazine and are claiming it’s “tone-deaf” or is “glamorising the war”. Now, I’d like to believe that every insensitive commentator is a bot paid directly from Putin’s piggy bank, but https://t.co/5g3siGMPpg
— Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦 (@rynkrynk) July 27, 2022
She was not the only person to defend the images either, both in and out of Ukraine.
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Love how nobody questions how russians can go have fun every day and not care how their government kills ukrainians and Syrians on their money, but as soon as ukrainian takes one photo with their face/body not covered in blood the war is fake and ukrainians are hypocrites https://t.co/NkrO71F85B
The Russian president Vladimir Putin celebrated the eight years since his troops seized the Ukrainian region of Crimea with a bizarre rally on Friday.
He spoke in front of a huge crowd in Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium and praised the war effort in Ukraine which has seen hundreds on both sides die.
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Despite being accused of of committing war crimes through his attacks on civilians, the widespread Ukrainian resistance and the repeated suppression of any forms of free speech in Russia, the president told the audience: “We have not had unity like this for a long time.”
Putin also honoured those in Crimea who stood up to “neo-Nazis and radical nationals” and joined Russia, even though world leaders have rejected any claim that there is Nazism in Ukraine’s government.
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In an ominous nod to the future, Putin also promised the crowd: “We know what we have to do next…we’ll definitely carry out all the plans we have made.”
The stadium speech is comparable to the kind of rallies former US president Donald Trump became famous for. The two leaders were said to have a certain kind of rapport, and the former US president has even called Putin’s Ukraine strategy a work of “genius”.
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The rally speaks to the West’s concerns about Putin’s increasingly unhinged behaviour, and comes a day after current US president Joe Biden labelled him a “murderous dictator” and a “pure thug”.
For someone who rails against western culture so much, the setup at Putin’s speech is very Wrestlemania. You half expect to hear glass breaking and see Stone Cold come out with a steel chair pic.twitter.com/KNhUtsWEVF
“We see how heroically our guys are acting, and fighting, in the course of this operation.” (the Kremlin has prohibited Russians from using the word ‘war’ or ‘invasion’ to describe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) pic.twitter.com/IkcBglWkAH
March 18, 2014, does mark Russia’s complete annexation of Crimea, although the peninsula is still not legally recognised as part of the country by the international community.
It followed an internationally discredited public vote held two days before where the people living in the peninsula were asked whether they wanted to be part of Russia or part of Ukraine.
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While 97% of votes backed joining Russia, Ukraine said the referendum was illegal as it had taken place while Russian forces were in Crimea.
Russian representatives claimed more than 200,000 people attended Friday’s celebrations. The official capacity of the stadium is 81,000, although there were crowds outside the stadium too.
But many attendees told the BBC they had been pressured by their employers in the public sector to attend.
Some students were allowed not to attend lectures as long as they went to the “concert”, while others told the BBC they had not been aware that the event was aimed at consolidating support for the Ukrainian war.
lol, Putin says “we haven’t seen unity like this in a long time,” referring to Russia’s soldiers in Ukraine, claiming that the local civilians have welcomed Moscow’s invading troops. This message is sponsored by @koolaid, folks.
There is thought to be some support for the Russian attack on its European neighbour, but the full extent of the general public’s backing is hard to calculate.
The Kremlin has quashed any efforts to speak out against the invasion, including attempts to call it a war – Russia prefers to call it a “special military operation” – shutting down any protests or independent media outlets.
Children in their last six years of school have to now attend “My Country” lessons where they watch a video of Putin sharing his take on Ukraine’s history.
Children have been seen lining up to create the letter Z – the pro-invasion symbol which was first seen on the side of Russian tanks – and will have lessons dedicated to March 18 which aim to “form an understanding” of patriotism.
Teachers also shared a video showing people in the military are more likely to become heroes, all in honour of the “Crimean spring”.
Is the war really going well?
The Russian offensive is thought to have slowed significantly since it first began more than three weeks ago.
Russian forces are becoming increasingly violent and attacks on the west Ukraine city of Lviv shows the offensive is now spreading out.
Officials in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv say almost 90% of buildings in the city of Mariupol have now been damaged or destroyed by Russian forces, including a bomb shelter within a theatre where hundreds were sheltering.
The word “children” had been writing by Ukrainians in Russian outside for those dropping the bombs, although Kremlin representatives claim the attack was nothing to do with them.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia is actually not doing as well as it expected to in its invasion because Putin expected the country to be the same as it was in 2014, during the Crimea annexation.
He said Russia “didn’t know what we had for defence or how we prepared to meet the blow”.