The Battle For The Donbas: Why This Is A Significant New Phase Of The Russia-Ukraine War

A new phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday night.

“Now we can already state that the Russian troops have begun the battle for the Donbas,” he said in a video address about the long-feared, full-scale offensive to take control of Ukraine’s east.

With a “significant part of the entire Russian army” now deployed in the region, according to Zelenskyy, here’s what you need to know about what could be a turning point in the conflict.

What has happened so far?

On February 24, Russia invaded neighbouring Ukraine. Tanks and soldiers streamed across the border, scenes more reminiscent of the Second World War than the remote cyber warfare that modern conflict was supposed to be dominated by.

Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of $100 billion, Ukrainian officials have said, as the United Nations revealed the civilian death toll has now surpassed 2,000. About four million Ukrainians have fled the country.

But Russia’s swift march to victory did not materialise. Driven back by Ukrainian resistance in the north, Moscow has refocused its ground offensive in the two eastern provinces known as the Donbas, while launching long-distance strikes at other targets including the capital, Kyiv.

What does the Donbas matter?

The Donbas is Ukraine’s mostly Russian-speaking industrial heartland in the east, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces for the past eight years and have declared two independent republics that have been recognised by Russia.

In recent weeks, the Kremlin declared the capture of the Donbas its main goal of the war after its attempt to storm Kyiv failed. After withdrawing from the capital, it began regrouping and reinforcing its ground troops in the east for what could be a climactic battle.

On Monday, Ukraine military generals said Russian forces were increasing assaults in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions – both of which are part of the Donbas – as well as in the area of Zaporizhzhia.

They also said Russia was sending reinforcements to the Crimean peninsula – seized from Ukraine in 2014 – and to the Rostov-on-Don area, which borders Ukraine.

PA Graphics via PA Graphics/Press Association Images

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak called it “the second phase of the war” and assured Ukrainians that their forces could hold off the offensive. “Believe in our army, it is very strong,” he said.

The Associated Press reported a senior US defence official saying there are now 76 Russian combat units in eastern and southern Ukraine, up from 65 last week. That could translate to around 50,000 to 60,000 troops.

Russia’s stuttering campaign means control of eastern Ukraine has taken added significance, and may prompt the fiercest fighting yet. Russia needs some kind of “win” – recognising Russia’s claims in the Donbas and Crimea has also been the central plank of Vladamir Putin’s demands at failed peace talks – and following the sinking of its Black Sea lead ship, Putin will not be contemplating further embarrassment.

Wider attacks prepared the ground?

The new offensive in the east came as a Russian missile attack killed seven people in Lviv, the first civilian victims in the western city about 40 miles from Poland. It was one of a multitude of other targets across Ukraine in what appeared to be an intensified bid to grind down the country’s defences.

Lviv has seen only sporadic attacks during almost two months of war and has become a haven for civilians fleeing the fighting elsewhere.

In other developments, Ukrainian troops remained holed up at a mammoth steel mill in Mariupol, the last known pocket of resistance in the devastated southern port city.

The capture of Mariupol, where Ukraine estimates 21,000 people have been killed, is seen as key, and not just because it would deprive Ukraine of a vital port and complete a land bridge between Russia and the Crimean peninsula.

General Richard Dannatt, a former head of the British Army, told Sky News that Russia is waging a “softening-up” campaign ahead of the Donbas offensive.

The US defence official said that if Russian forces succeed in taking full control of Mariupol, that could free up nearly a dozen combat units for use elsewhere in the Donbas.

Is support from the West likely to grow?

Given the changing dynamics of the war, Ukraine is calling for an increasing supply of Western weapons.

Last week, US president Joe Biden announced an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, expanding the aid to include heavy artillery ahead of the wider Russian assault expected in eastern Ukraine.

The US military expects to start training Ukrainians on using howitzer artillery in coming days, with the training taking place outside Ukraine.

The Sun reported Boris Johnson is set to provide Ukraine with tank-mounted Stormer armoured missile launchers, another sign the West is prepared to offer as much military hardware as possible without triggering a wider Nato vs Russia conflict.

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Putin In Full Dictator Mode During Terrifying Rally In Moscow

The Russian president Vladimir Putin celebrated the eight years since his troops seized the Ukrainian region of Crimea with a bizarre rally on Friday.

He spoke in front of a huge crowd in Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium and praised the war effort in Ukraine which has seen hundreds on both sides die.

Despite being accused of of committing war crimes through his attacks on civilians, the widespread Ukrainian resistance and the repeated suppression of any forms of free speech in Russia, the president told the audience: “We have not had unity like this for a long time.”

Putin also honoured those in Crimea who stood up to “neo-Nazis and radical nationals” and joined Russia, even though world leaders have rejected any claim that there is Nazism in Ukraine’s government.

In an ominous nod to the future, Putin also promised the crowd: “We know what we have to do next…we’ll definitely carry out all the plans we have made.”

The stadium speech is comparable to the kind of rallies former US president Donald Trump became famous for. The two leaders were said to have a certain kind of rapport, and the former US president has even called Putin’s Ukraine strategy a work of “genius”.

The rally speaks to the West’s concerns about Putin’s increasingly unhinged behaviour, and comes a day after current US president Joe Biden labelled him a “murderous dictator” and a “pure thug”.

What is the annexation of Crimea?

March 18, 2014, does mark Russia’s complete annexation of Crimea, although the peninsula is still not legally recognised as part of the country by the international community.

It followed an internationally discredited public vote held two days before where the people living in the peninsula were asked whether they wanted to be part of Russia or part of Ukraine.

While 97% of votes backed joining Russia, Ukraine said the referendum was illegal as it had taken place while Russian forces were in Crimea.

The 2014 annexation of Crimea is now perceived as the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Did people really want to be at the rally?

Russian representatives claimed more than 200,000 people attended Friday’s celebrations. The official capacity of the stadium is 81,000, although there were crowds outside the stadium too.

But many attendees told the BBC they had been pressured by their employers in the public sector to attend.

Some students were allowed not to attend lectures as long as they went to the “concert”, while others told the BBC they had not been aware that the event was aimed at consolidating support for the Ukrainian war.

There is thought to be some support for the Russian attack on its European neighbour, but the full extent of the general public’s backing is hard to calculate.

The Kremlin has quashed any efforts to speak out against the invasion, including attempts to call it a war – Russia prefers to call it a “special military operation” – shutting down any protests or independent media outlets.

Children in their last six years of school have to now attend “My Country” lessons where they watch a video of Putin sharing his take on Ukraine’s history.

Putin is known to consider Ukraine and Russia as “brother nations” and wants them both to be under his influence in a throwback to the pre-Soviet era.

Children have been seen lining up to create the letter Z – the pro-invasion symbol which was first seen on the side of Russian tanks – and will have lessons dedicated to March 18 which aim to “form an understanding” of patriotism.

Teachers also shared a video showing people in the military are more likely to become heroes, all in honour of the “Crimean spring”.

Is the war really going well?

The Russian offensive is thought to have slowed significantly since it first began more than three weeks ago.

Russian forces are becoming increasingly violent and attacks on the west Ukraine city of Lviv shows the offensive is now spreading out.

Officials in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv say almost 90% of buildings in the city of Mariupol have now been damaged or destroyed by Russian forces, including a bomb shelter within a theatre where hundreds were sheltering.

The word “children” had been writing by Ukrainians in Russian outside for those dropping the bombs, although Kremlin representatives claim the attack was nothing to do with them.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia is actually not doing as well as it expected to in its invasion because Putin expected the country to be the same as it was in 2014, during the Crimea annexation.

He said Russia “didn’t know what we had for defence or how we prepared to meet the blow”.

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