Humza Yousaf had better not be a superstitious man.
In a quirk of fate, his winning margin of victory over Kate Forbes in the SNP leadership contest was 52% to 48% – exactly the same result which saw Leave defeat Remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Scotland’s first minister-elect (his elevation to the role will be confirmed by the Scottish Parliament tomorrow) will hope that history does not repeat itself in the aftermath of his success.
Advertisement
It has taken nearly seven exhausting years of bitter political battles for the UK to finally begin to come to terms with life outside the EU, although of course many will never reconcile themselves to that reality.
Yousaf must somehow bring his party back together in a much shorter space of time before he can even begin to think about leading his country.
The challenge facing him was perfectly encapsulated by a revealing tweet by SNP MSP Karen Adam.
She told her followers she was “relieved” that Yousaf had won – and, by extension, that Forbes had lost. What’s more, her post was then re-tweeted by the SNP’s official Twitter account.
Advertisement
Mike Russell – the SNP’s acting chief executive who admitted the party is in “a tremendous mess” during the leadership contest – was also refreshingly honest in the immediate aftermath of Yousaf’s victory.
Asked by Times Radio if the party could unite behind their new leader, he would only say: “The potential for unity exists.”
The fact remains, however, that despite being the SNP establishment candidate, Yousaf won by just 2,000 votes against a candidate who was roundly pilloried at the start of the campaign over her opposition to gay marriage and having children outside wedlock.
One senior SNP figure pointed out that at the start of the leadership campaign, Yousaf’s approval rating among the public was minus 16. By the end, it was minus 20.
“The more people see of him, the less they like him,” they said.
One MP told HuffPost UK that having failed to win the support of more than half of party members in the first round of voting (he got 48%), uniting the party behind him will be extraordinarily difficult.
Advertisement
“It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of Humza or the campaign he run,” the MP said.
“He’ll also not have enjoyed having to actually work for it. His sense of entitlement is off the charts.”
The fractious nature of the debate served only to highlight the deep divisions which Nicola Sturgeon had managed to keep a lid on for so long.
In his acceptance speech, Yousaf said: “The people of Scotland need independence now more than ever before, and we will be the generation that delivers independence for Scotland.”
He may find that bringing together the warring SNP tribes may be a harder task than persuading Scots that their best interests lie outside the United Kingdom.